The Dollar Index has dipped below 105 and could further extend its fall towards 104.5/104 before attempting to rise back. Watch US ADP Unemployment data release today. Meanwhile, Euro has recovered a bit, but an interim resistance can be spotted near 1.08 below which there is a possibility of the pair coming down towards 1.07-1.065. USDJPY continues to remain stable within the 151–152 region, EURJPY has risen above 163 and has a fair chance of testing 164-165 on the upside before halting. Aussie and Pound have risen back above their expected supports of 0.65 and 1.26 and now whether the rise sustains or not will have to be seen. USDCNY needs a confirmed break above 7.24 to make the outlook bullish in the near term. USDINR has held the resistance of 83.50 quite well and could possibly come down towards 83.30/20 in the near term. EURINR continues to remain volatile within 89-91 region.

Dollar Index (104.748)reversed from 105.10 itself, contrary to our expectations of seeing a further rise to 105.5-106. Now, an initial dip to its near-term support around 104.5-104 could be seen before it bounces back stronger in the coming sessions. A decisive break below 104 will be needed to make the outlook further bearish.

EURUSD (1.0773) has recovered a bit from the yesterday’s low of 1.0725 and is headed towards its interim resistance around 1.08 from where near-term reversals are likely to take place. We are not ruling out the possibility of the pair coming down towards 1.07-1.065 unless a strong and sustained break above 1.08 is seen.

EURJPY (163.33) has rebounded from the low of 162.61 itself, instead of testing support at 162 as expected. Now, while above 163; the pair could re-attempt to test the upper levels of 164-165 in the coming sessions before halting.

Dollar-Yen (151.59) continues to remain stable within the 151–152 region despite sharp fall seen in the Nikkei (-374.76, -0.94%). Sharp decline if continues in the Nikkei in the medium term could evetually pull down USDJPY also soon.

USDCNY (7.2343) is hovering below its resistance of 7.2375-7.24. The pair necessarily needs to break past 7.24 to maintain bullishness in its trend; otherwise, the possibility of it coming down towards 7.21/20 while below 7.24 cannot be ruled out.

Aussie (0.6508) and Pound (1.2572) have risen back above 0.65 and 1.25 respectively making the yesterday’s dip as a false break. Both the pairs still need to rise further above 0.655 and 1.26 respectively to indicate near term bullishness else expected fall to 0.64 and 1.25 may again come into the picture.

USDINR (83.39) opened higher, around 83.4120 yesterday as expected and now while below resistance at 83.50, it can further come towards 83.30/20.

EURINR (89.8176) held the support around 89.40 quite well and has risen above it. Overall, its broader range of 91–89 is expected to hold for a while before a break can be seen on the either side.

The US Treasury yields are moving up in line with our expectation towards their key resistances. Whether the yields break the resistances or not will decide the next direction of move. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have surged towards the upper end of their range. The price action in the next few days will need a watch to see if the yields are breaking their range or not. The 10Yr GoI has risen, breaking above its resistance. If this sustains, it will negate our earlier bearish view and will take the yield higher. The 5Yr GoI is still oscillating within its range.

The US 10Yr (4.35%) and the 30Yr (4.49%) yields are heading up towards 4.4% and 4.55%-4.6% respectively. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a reversal is happening or not. A break above 4.4% can take the 10Yr up to 4.6%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.8% on a break above 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields have surged towards the upper end of their 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.6% (30Yr) range. An upside breakout of this range can take the yields up to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr). We will have to wait and see.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1160%) has risen sharply above 7.1%. If this sustains, 7.2% can be targeted on the upside. That in turn will negate the bearish view of breaking below 7%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0875%) has also risen but it still remains within its 7%-7.12% range. It has to breach 7.12% to become bullish for a rise to 7.2% and higher. Until then the sideways range will remain intact.

Back to Back strong US economic releases are weighing on stocks on fear that economic strength could dampen the FED’s outlook for 3 rate cut this year. US JOLTS job openings data came out stronger yesterday. Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei have fallen sharply. Nifty can too fall today taking cues from global equities. Shanghai have dipped slightly but downside might be limited to 3050-3020

Dow (39170.24, -1%) has declined below 39200. A break below 39000 can drag it down to 38500. That in turn will negate the bullish view of seeing 40200.

DAX (18283.13, -1.13%) has come down sharply from its resistance at 18500. A further fall to 18000-17800 is possible this week.

Nifty (22453.30, -0.04%) remained stable below 22500. As mentioned yesterday, a sustained rise above 22500 is needed to see 22700 and 23000 on the upside. Else a test of 22200 cannot be ruled out. Stay out and watch.

Nikkei (39498.50, -0.92%) has fallen sharply below the support at 39700-39500. This has reduced the chances of seeing a rise towards 41000-42000. If the fall sustains below 40000, a further dip towards 38000 could be seen.

Shanghai (3066.66, -0.25%) lacks strength to rise past 3090. Support is at 3050/3020. It may remain ranged within 3020/3050-3090 for a while before a break above 3090-3100 and rise towards 3150-3200 can be seen in the coming days.

Crude prices have risen ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today where it will assess the market and its implementation of crude output cuts that they have already agreed to extend for the Q2 2024. Need to see if crude prices are able to rise past their resistances or not. Metals and Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 88.98) is attempting to break above the resistance at $ 89. A decisive break above $ 89-90, if seen, can take it higher towards $ 91-92. Else a dip towards $ 87 cannot be ruled out.

WTI ($ 85.15) is trying to break above the resistance near $ 85. Only a sustained break above $ 85, if seen, can take if further higher towards $ 90. Else a corrective dip towards $ 82 cannot be ruled out.

Gold (2302.90) has risen above 2300. A further rise towards 2400 looks possible in the near term.

Silver (26.37) indeed rose to 26.30 yesterday as expected and has move up further towards 26.50 today. It looks further bullish towards 27.00-27.50.

Copper (4.0855) has moved up towards 4.10 in line with expectations. A further rise towards 4.15 or even 4.20 can be seen while it remains above 4.05-4.00.

Natural Gas (1.85) continues to rally and has scope for a rise towards 2.00 in the near term.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn -10.6 …Expected – …Previous -12.6

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.5% …Expected 6.4% …Previous 6.4%

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.2% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.6%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 149K …Previous 140K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.3 …Expected 59.2 …Previous 56.9 …Actual 59.1

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 43.5 …Expected – …Previous 44.0 …Actual 45.2

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 46.5 …Actual 46.1

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 48.1 …Expected – …Previous 47.5 …Actual 50.3