The Dollar Index has bounced back from 103.91 while the Euro has held well below 1.09. US NFP data release is crucial today and could keep the volatility in major currencies intact within the broad near-term range. EURJPY held below 165 while USDJPY can be ranged within 152-150. Aussie and Pound continue to move within 0.65-0.6650 and 1.25-1.27 region while USDCNY is closed for the day. EURINR came off from 90.70 exactly as expected and could head towards 90 while USDINR is holding well below resistance at 83.50 and could trade within 83.50-83.30 for the day. However, we remain cautious around 83.50.

Dollar Index (104.33)tested 103.91 before bouncing back from there. A broad range of 103.50-105 could hold for the coming sessions. The index could be volatile ahead of the NFP and unemployment data release today.

EURUSD (1.0824) dipped back from 1.0877 and could not rise to test 1.09. An immediate range of 1.07-1.09 could hold for a while.

EURJPY (163.65) fell sharply from 165. Note that 165-166 is a crucial reisstance on the charts and while they hold, the pair can fall back towards 162 or lower. An immediate range of 162-165 could play out for the next 1-week at least.

Dollar-Yen (151.17) bounced back from 150.80 in line with the bounce in Dollar Index. We continue to expect 152 to hold as strong resistance and lead to a fall towards 150-149 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2325) is closed today. Overall, the pair necessarily needs to break past 7.24 to maintain bullishness in its trend; else, a decline towards 7.21/20 while below 7.24 looks more likely.

Aussie (0.6564) attempted to rise above 0.66 but could not break above 0.6625 and instead fell back sharply from there while Pound (1.2623) held below its resistance near 1.27. Both may continue to trade between 0.65-0.66 and 1.25-1.27 respectively.

USDINR (83.4425) tested 83.4575 and seems to be holding well below resistance at 83.50. Watch price action near 83.50 for a few more days unless a sharp rejection takes the pair down towards 83.30 or lower. Immediate trade range is 83.50-83.30.

EURINR (90.3496) fell from 90.70 as expected and could now head towards 90 again with a possible extension towards 89.50. Broad range of 91-89.50 may hold good for the next 1-2 weeks.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Key resistances are ahead which have to be broken for the yields to gain strength and move higher. Else they can fall back again. The US non-farm payroll and the unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The German yields are coming down. It looks like the range is intact and the yields can come down within it. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped. The 5Yr remains well within its range. The 10Yr GoI has potential to rise back if it sustains above the immediate support. The RBI meeting outcome today will need a watch.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) and the 30Yr (4.48%) yields have dipped slightly. 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.55%-4.6% (30Yr) are crucial resistances to watch. The yields have to surpass these levels to go up to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). Else a fall back to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.35% (30Yr) and lower levels can happen eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields have dipped further. 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.6% (30Yr) is the trading range and it looks like the yields are coming down within it now. A bullish breakout is needed to take the yields up to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0934%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0685%) yields have dipped. The 10Yr has support at 7.08% while above which the chances of a rise to 7.15%-7.2% will remain alive. Only a fall below 7.08% will negate that rise and drag it down to 7%. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand looks mixed within its 7%-7.12% range intact.

Sell off continues in Dow Jones. It can be vulnerable to a fall further it it fails to sustain above 38500. DAX has extended the bounce further but needs to rise past 18500 to negate our bearish view. Nikkei has fallen sharply below 39000 and looks bearish towards 38000. Nifty recovered a bit yesterday but can fall today taking cues from global market.

Dow (38596.98, -1.35%) has declined sharply below 39000. Failure to sustain above 38500 can drag it down to 38200-38000 in the near-term. A strong rise above 39200 will now be needed to bring back the earlier bullishness.

DAX (18403.13, +0.19%) has inched up further. But as mentioned yesterday, a sustained rise above 18500 is needed to move up towards 19000 and higher. Else a fall to 18000-17800 cannot be avoided.

Nifty (22514.65, +0.36%) has risen back sharply from around 22300. But it can fall back taking cues from the global markets. However, while above 22200 the bias will remain positive to see 22700-23000 on the upside.

Nikkei (38843.00, -2.45%) opened gap down at 39237 has declined sharply below 39000. It can fall towards 38000.

Shanghai (3069.30) remains closed today. We expect the support at 3050/3040 to hold and produce a bounce towards 3150-3200. A break above 3090/3100 can trigger this rise. It may trade sideways within 3040-3090 for some time before a breakout on upside could be seen.

Crude prices continues to rise and look bullish for the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply but are likely to get supports at 2275, 26.35/26.00 and 4.10 respectively which may hold and produce a bounce back. Natural Gas continues to dip and is likely to test 1.7 before a bounce can happen. Key focus is on US NFP data which can lead to some volatility today.

Brent ($ 90.95) has risen above $ 90 as expected. A rise towards $ 92.00-92.50 looks possible.

WTI ($ 86.72) has moved up towards $ 87 and has scope to rise further towards $ 88-$ 90 in the near term.

Gold (2292.10) has fallen sharply from its all time high of 2325, contrary to our expectations. Immediate support is seen at 2275. If that holds, chances of rise towards 2350-2400 will remains intact. In case it happens to break lower, a dip towards 2230 could be seen.

Silver (26.56) has fallen sharply from levels near 27.50 contrary to our view to see a test of 28.00. Immediate support is at 26.35-26.00. If that holds, a bounce towards 27.50-28.00 might be possible.

Copper (4.1850) has declined from a high of 4.2565, contrary to our expectation for a rise towards 4.30-4.36. It may come down to test 4.10-4.05. After that, a bounce might be seen towards 4.30-4.36.

Natural Gas (1.76) has fallen below 1.8 contrary to our expectation that 1.8 can be a good support. If the break sustains, a test of 1.7 could be seen before a bounce back can happen towards 2.00.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.5 …Previous 11.0

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75%

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.2% …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.1%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 222K …Expected 205K …Previous 275K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.9% …Expected 3.9% …Previous 3.9%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.1

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.2 …Expected – …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 36.5K …Previous 40.7K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 60.0 …Expected 60.3 …Previous 60.6 …Actual 61.2

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.01% …Expected 1.30% …Previous 1.23% …Actual 1.04%

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected -66.9B …Previous -67.6B …Actual -68.9B