The Dollar Index rose to 104.70 and Euro fell to 1.0791 post NFP data on Friday but have recovered from there. EURJPY is moving up towards 164/165 again while USDJPY can be ranged while below 152. Aussie and Pound continue to move within 0.65-0.6650 and 1.25-1.27 region while USDCNY is closed for the day. EURINR could range within 90.50-89.50 for a few sessions while USDINR may attempt to test 83.20/15 this week while below 83.40/35.

Dollar Index (104.27) moved up to test 104.70 after the US NFP came higher than expected at 303K, on Friday but could not sustain the rise and has instead fallen back to current levels of 104.27. We expect the 105-103.50 range to hold for few more sessions.

EURUSD (1.0840) tested 1.0791 on Friday but has risen back from there. An immediate range of 1.07-1.09 could hold for a while.

EURJPY (164.45) has bounced well from 163.489 and seems to be headed towards 164/165 again soon.

Dollar-Yen (151.69) is nearing towards the crucial resistance of 152 but we are keeping our view intact of pair holding below 152 and fall towards 150-149 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2325) is closed today.

Aussie (0.6588) and Pound(1.2637) may continue to remain volatile within 0.65-0.66 and 1.25-1.27 region respectively.

USDINR (83.30) closed at 83.30 on Friday, coming down to the lower end of our expected range of 83.50-83.30, but has managed to dip to 83.2480 on the NDF. There could be scope for a test of 83.20/15 in the coming sessions while below 83.35.

EURINR (90.30) could hold within 90.50-89.50 for the near term.


The US Treasury yields surged on Friday after the strong jobs data release. The nonfarm payroll rose 303K ( Expectation: 222K) and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% from 3.9%. While this momentum sustains, the yields will have room to rise further in the coming days. The German yields have risen back within their range. They are now near the upper end of their range. We will have to wait and see if they are breaking their range on the upside and rising or falling back to retain the range. The 10Yr GoI has just risen above its resistance. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it higher going forward. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand remains stuck within its sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and the 30Yr (4.57%) yields surged on Friday. The 10Yr is just above 4.4% while this sustains a further rise to 4.6% is possible. The 30Yr can rise to 4.8% (30Yr) on a break above 4.6%. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields have bounced back. The yields are near the upper end of their 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.6% (30Yr) range. We will have to wait and see. If they break the range on the upside a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr) can be seen. Else they can fall back and retain the range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1232%) has closed just above 7.12%. While this sustains, a rise to 7.15%-7.2% can be seen.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0685%) on the other hand, remains stable within its 7%-7.12% range. It has to breach 7.12% to become bullish for a rise to 7.22%-7.25%.


Decent recovery is seen in Dow Jones and Nikkei but they have to surpass the resistance overhead to become bullish again; else will be vulnerable to a fall back. DAX has declined sharply in line with expectations but might get support at 18000 which may hold and produce a bounce. Nifty and Shanghai looks bullish while above 22200 and 3050/40 respectively.

Dow (38904.04, +0.80%) bounced well on Friday. But a strong rise past 39200 will be needed to become bullish again. Else there is a danger of breaking below 38500 for a fall to 38000 and lower. Stay back and just watch.

DAX (18175.04, -1.24%) has declined sharply. But support is at 18000. While that holds, it can bounce back towards 18500 again and keep the broader uptrend intact.

Nifty (22513.70, +0%) remained stable around 22500. While above 22200, the bias will remain positive to see 22750-23000 on the upside.

Nikkei (39494.50, +1.24%) has bounced back after testing a low of 38774. It has to surpass 40000 to negate the danger of falling towards 38000 and to move up towards 40500-41000.

Shanghai (3067.80, -0.05%) has bounced after testing 3046. The support mentioned at 3050/3040 is holding well. It has scope to rise towards 3150-3200 while above 3050/40. However, a break above 3090/3100 can trigger this rise. Till then it can trade sideways within 3040-3090 for some time.


Crude prices have fallen back but have near term supports which may hold and lead to a bounce back from there. Strong recovery was seen in Metals after the release of solid US NFP data. Natural Gas continues to dip and is likely to test 1.7 before a bounce can happen.

Brent ($ 89.70) rose to 91.91 last friday before coming down sharply to trade below $ 90. We had expect a rise towards $ 92.00-92.50. Support is at $ 88. While that holds, a bounce back towards $ 91-92 could be seen again.

WTI ($ 85.60) has fallen back from a high of $ 87.63 but might get support at $ 84. While above $ 84, a bounce back towards $ 88-90 could be seen.

Gold (2341.70) bounced sharply from 2286 to test 2350 in line with expectations. There is room to rise further to 2400-2415. After that a corrective fall might be seen towards 2300.

Silver (27.95) has bounced back sharply towards 28 from a low of 26.40 last friday in line with expectations. The level of 28 is a key immediate resistance. A break above 28 is needed to continue the bullish momentum towards 29.00. Else it may trade within 28-26.50 for a while.

Copper (4.2335) has bounced back after testing 4.1665 last Friday. We had expected to see a test 4.10-4.05 and then a bounce back from there. Immediate support is at 4.15, while above which, a rise towards 4.30-4.40 looks possible.

Natural Gas (1.7570) is slowly inching down towards the support at 1.7. While that holds, a bounce back can be seen towards 2.00.


No major data release today.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.5 …Previous 10.1 …Actual 7.3

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.2% …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.0% …Actual -0.5%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 222K …Expected 205K …Previous 270K …Actual 303K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.9% …Expected 3.9% …Previous 3.9% …Actual 3.8%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.2 …Expected – …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 36.5K …Previous 40.7K …Actual -2.2K