The Dollar Index is trading lower within its range of 106.50-105.50/105, while EURUSD is headed towards 1.0750. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading near their immediate supports around 164 and 152 which if held, can bring them back towards the previous levels on the upside. Aussie can soon test 0.6580-0.66 before coming down towards 0.65, Pound is testing the resistance at 1.2550. If the resistance holds; can drag it lower to 1.24 in the near term. USDCNY is closed today. EURINR may remain ranged within revised range of 88.50–89.50/90. USDINR can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 for now. The US NFP & Unemployment data releases would be important to watch today as they might impact the volatility in the markets for the next few sessions.

Dollar Index (105.246) has been falling within its range of 106.50-105.50/105. On the charts there is immediate support at current levels which if break can take it towards lower support near 104.50. The US NFP & Unemployment data release scheduled today would be important to watch as they might keep the volatility intact for the near term.

EURUSD (1.0734) is headed towards the upper end of its 1.06/0650-1.0750 range and thereafter, a decisive break past it can take it higher to test 1.08/0850 on the upside before halting.

Dollar-Yen (153.01) has remained volatile since the last few sessions. Currently it is headed towards the support at 152 which if can produce a rise back towards 154/156 soon.

EURJPY (164.27) is holding well below resistance at 168 and is now headed towards support at 162. Watch for a possible bounce from 162 in the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.2396) is closed today. Overall outlook remains bullish towards 7.25 while above 7.2350.

Aussie (0.6573) is rising towards resistance at 0.66. Thereafter, a decisive break past it would be needed for the pair to further test 0.67 on the upside. Else while below 0.66, view remains bearish towards 0.65 in the near term.

Pound (1.2549) is currently trading at the expected resistance level of 1.2550 which if held, can push the pair lower towards 1.24-1.2350 in the coming sessions. Overall, view remains bearish below 1.26. Watch price action around current levels.

USDINR (83.4650) may head towards the lower end of the 83.50-83.30 trade region. The US NFP data release today could impact movement in the pair in the near term.

EURINR (89.4950) is likely to rise within the 89.60-90 range.


The US Treasury and the German yields have come down. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further from here. Thereafter they can rise back again. The US NFP and Unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are poised at the lower end of their range. We will have to wait and watch if they are bouncing back today to retain the range or extend the fall further.

The US 10Yr (4.58%) and the 30Yr (4.73%) yields have come down. The 10Yr has dipped below 4.6%. While below 4.6%, a fall to 4.55%-4.5% is possible. The 30Yr on the other hand is still within its 4.7%-4.8% range. It can fall to 4.6% only on a break below 4.7% we will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.54%) and the 30Yr (2.64%) yields have comed down. While below 2.6%, the 10Yr can fall to 2.5%-2.4% and then reverse higher again. The 30Yr can test 2.6%-2.5% and then resume the uptrend.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1598%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1615%) are near the lower end of their 7.15%-7.25% range. Need to see if they can bounce back from here and retain the range or will fall to 7.1% and then rise back again.


Dow Jones looks range bound. Dax can fall towards its lower end of the 18250-17600 range. Nifty has scope to test its key resistance before a corrective fall can be seen from there. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed.

Dow (38225.66, +0.85%) is moving up within its 37500-38500 range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move.

DAX (17896.50, -0.20%) continues to come down and can test 17800-17600 in the coming days. For now, 18250-17600 looks to be the trading range.

Nifty (22648.20, +0.19%) can rise to 23000 while it sustains above the support at 22500-22450. Thereafter a corrective fall to 22000 and lower is possible.

Nikkei (38236.07) is closed today. We expect the support at 37000 and resistance at 39000 to hold for some time.

Shanghai (3104.82, -0.26%) is closed till friday. Chances of rise towards 3150-3200 cannot be ruled out while it remains above 3000.


Crude prices have managed to hold above their near term support and might bounce back soon. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen and may remain bearish for the near term. Key focus is on the US NFP data today. Natural Gas can trade sideways between 1.85/1.90-2.10 for a while.

Brent ($ 83.79) has managed to hold above the support at $ 83-82. Has chances of bounce towards $ 87-88 while above $ 83-82.

WTI ($ 79.07) looks stable above $ 78. Supports is now seen at $ 77.70-77.50, while above which, a bounce towards $ 82 is possible.

Gold (2309.80) has fallen towards the lower end of the range 2300-2370. It looks likely to break below 2300 and fall towards 2250-2200.

Silver (26.88) dipped to 26.26 yesterday but bounced from there. Maybe it will dip towards 26.00 or lower while below 27.30-27.50.

Copper (4.4935) has fallen sharply below the support at 4.50. Can remain bearish while below 4.55. It has scope for further fall towards 4.3 over next week.

Natural Gas (2.0220) bounced back as the support at 1.90 has held well. It may trade within 1.85/1.90-2.1 range for some time with a possibility of rising towards 2.2-2.3.


9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
Expn – …Expected 6.5% …Previous 6.5%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 276K …Expected 243K …Previous 303K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.8% …Expected 3.8% …Previous 3.8%

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.3

Data Yesterday
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 7.4 …Previous 6.6 …Actual 5.0

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 59.50 …Expected 59.5 …Previous 59.1 …Actual 58.80

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.5 …Expected – …Previous 1.0 …Actual 1.3

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 46.1 …Expected 45.5 …Previous 45.2 ….Actual 41.4

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 45.6 …Previous 46.1 ….Actual 45.7

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected -69.3 $ bln …Previous -69.5 $ bln ….Actual -69.4 $ bln