The Dollar Index is headed to 105.50/106 while the Euro maintains below 1.08 for now. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise towards 156/157 and 168 respectively while USDCNY has plunged to 7.2073 before bouncing back to current levels of 7.2174. The downside of 7.20/18 would be negated on a sharp rise back to 7.23/25 region. Aussie and Pound can trade between 0.67-0.65 and 1.25-1.2650 for a few days. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90.10/15. USDINR can trade within 83.55/57-83.40/30 for a few days.

Dollar Index (105.186) is slowly inching above 105 to rise towards 105.50-106 in the next few sessions while EURUSD (1.0765) is holding below 1.08. Euro could fall to 1.07 with upside limit of 1.08-1.0850 in the next couple of weeks.

Dollar-Yen (154.50) is rising well while above 152. A test of 156-157 looks possible in the near term.

EURJPY (166.32) is also holding well above 164 and can head towards 168 in the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.2174) has risen to current levels after testing 7.2073 on the downside. Unless it rise immediately towards 7.23-7.24, it can have some chances of a fall to 7.20/18 soon.

Aussie (0.6620) has been attempting to rise above 0.6625 for the past 3 sessions but has closed lower. A sustained break above 0.6625 can take it higher to 0.6650-0.67 or slightly higher before reversing from there for the medium term.

Pound (1.2554) has dipped slightly and can test 1.25 while below 1.2650. The immediate range of 1.25-1.2650 may hold for a few days.

USDINR (83.4925) rose sharply to 83.4975 yesterday with low limited to 83.41. Resistance is seen at 83.55 and then higher at 83.57. While these hold, a range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 can persist for some time

EURINR (89.8790) has interim resistance near 90.10/15 below which the pair can come down towards 89.50-89.20. Only a sustained break above 90.10/15 would indicate bullishness and negate our current expectation of seeing a fall to 89.50/20.


The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further in the near-term and then can possibly reverse higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply on Monday. They are poised at their crucial support. Failure to bounce back immediately can see an extended fall from here and then can see a reversal.

The US 10Yr (4.49%) and the 30Yr (4.64%) yields continue to move down. The 10Yr has dipped below 4.5%. While this sustains, a further fall to 4.4%-4.35% can be seen. The 30Yr is heading down towards 4.6% in line with our expectation.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and the 30Yr (2.59%) yields are coming down as expected. The 10Yr can test 2.4% and the 30Yr can fall to 2.5% while below 2.6%. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1068%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0980%) have declined sharply and are poised at their crucial supports. Failure to bounce back immediately from here can drag both the 10Yr and 5Yr GoI down to 7%. In that case the expected rise to 7.3% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.4% (5Yr) will get delayed.


Decent rise is seen in most of the equites expect Nifty. Dow Jones can rise towards 39200-39500. Thereafter we need to see if any fall back happens or not. Dax is moving up towards the upper band of the range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside and extend the rise or not. Nifty looks mixed for the near term. Nikkei has risen towards its resistance which if holds, can lead to a fall in the near term. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.

Dow (38852.27, +0.46%) sustains the break above 38500 and is continuing to move up. A test of 39200-39500 can be seen this week. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

DAX (18175.21, +0.96%) is moving up towards the upper end of its 17600-18250 range. Need to see if it can breach 18250 and extend the rise to 18600.

Nifty (22442.70, -0.15%) oscillated around 22500 and looks mixed. The chances of a fall to 22200 remains alive. As mentioned yesterday, 22200-22800 (narrow) or 22000-23000 (broad) can be the possible trading range for now.

Nikkei (38707.50, +1.25) has moved up to 38863. If the resistance at 39000 holds, a fall back towards 38000-37000 can be seen. Overall a range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3141.63, +0.03%) has risen towards 3150. A further rise towards the key resistance at 3200 looks likely in the near term before a corrective fall can be seen towards 3100.


Brent and WTI can rise while above the support at $ 83-82 and $ 78-77.50 respectively. Gold can test 2350-2400 before a fall back can be seen. Silver and Copper has risen above their resistance at 27.50 and 4.60 respectively and may extend the rise further while the break sustains. Natural Gas needs to rise past 2.3 for increased bullishness.

Brent ($ 83.40) has managed to hold above $ 83-82. Can remain ranged within $ 82-85 for a while before a rise can be seen towards $ 87-88.

WTI ($ 78.61) is holding well above $ 78. While above $ 78.00-77.50, a rise towards $ 81-82 is possible.

Gold (2331.60) is heading towards 2350. It may either falls back towards 2250-2200 from 2350 or extend the rise to 2400 and then falls back.

Silver (27.52) has risen sharply breaking above 27.50. This has negated the chances of fall towards 26.00 or lower. It can now rise towards 28-29.

Copper (4.6045) has risen above 4.60. While this break sustains, it can rise towards 4.70-4.80. The fall towards 4.30 that we had mentioned earlier is negated now.

Natural Gas (2.1620) rose to 2.2620 yesterday in line with expectations to see a rise towards 2.3. A break above 2.3 is needed for increased bullishness towards 2.50-3.00.


4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – … Expected 4.35% … Previous 4.35%

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.2% … Expected 0.6% … Previous -0.5%

Data Yesterday
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 63.6 … Expected 61.7 … Previous 61.2 ….Actual 60.80