The Dollar Index is holding well above 105 and can rise to 106 and Euro can fall to 1.07 while below resistance at 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen past 156 and 168 respectively and now if sustained, can extend towards 157/158 and 169/170 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is headed towards 7.24. Aussie and Pound continue to remain ranged within 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26 respectively. EURINR has risen slightly above the resistance of 90 and now it has to be seen whether it sustains and rises further towards 91 or gets dragged towards 89.50 in the coming sessions. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 for this week.

Dollar Index (105.287) continues to remain stable above 105 and until a decisive break below it is seen, the view remains bullish for a rise towards 105.50-106 in the next few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0784) tested 1.0807 on the upside before coming down. For now, the resistance around 1.08 seems to be holding well and below it, immediate view remains bearish towards 1.0750-1.07 for the near term. Only a strong break past 1.08 can make the outlook further bullish in medium term.

Dollar-Yen (156.44) and EURJPY (168.73) have finally given a break past their narrow region of 155-156 and 168 respectively. Now the pair needs to sustain above the current levels to test 157/158 and 169/170 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2372) is heading towards 7.24 as expected. The expected rise might get extended to 7.25 before eventually turning bearish towards 7.22 or lower in the medium term..

Aussie (0.6602) and Pound (1.2555) are moving higher towards the upper end of their respective range of 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26, which is likely to hold for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.5350) had risen till the level of 83.54 before cooling down a bit. Overall, the broader range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 is expected to hold for the current week also. Thereafter, it can eventually rise higher towards 83.62 in the medium term.

EURINR (90.0699) has risen slightly above the expected resistance at 90 and now if sustained, can slowly rise towards 90.50-91 in the coming sessions. Else failure to do so can push the pair down towards 89.50-89 in the near term.


The US Treasury yields look stable but can rise while above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30yr) respectively if they get a strong follow-through rise. Else an initial dip to the mentioned supports can happen before the yields reverse higher strongly. The German yields have dipped slightly but we retain our bullish view while above 2.40% (10yr) and 2.50% (30yr) respectively. The 10Yr GoI is ranged within 7.16-7.10% while the 5Yr GOI may fall to 7.02/7.00% before rising towards 7.30% in the medium term.

The US 10Yr (4.487%) and the 30Yr (4.632%) yields are stable. Need to see if the yields sustain the recent rise. The 10Yr has scope to test 4.6% while above 4.4%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.8% while it sustains above 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.508%) and the 30Yr (2.645%) yields have dipped slightly. The yields can rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) respectively while above 2.40% and 2.50%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1157%) looks ranged within 7.16%-7.10%. The mentioned range may hold for some time before a fall towards 7.00% can be seen. Then a bounce back can happen towards 7.30%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0965%) has dipped below 7.10%. It can fall towards 7.02%-7.00% first and then a bounce back might happen towards 7.30%-7.40% in the long term.


Dow Jones and DAX have dipped slightly. Dow Jones has near-term support while above which the view remains intact for a rise towards its crucial resistance. Dax can dip further if it remains below 18850-18900. Nifty has recovered as the support at 21821-21800 held well and might extend the recovery further in the near term. Nikkei to trade sideways within 39000-37000 for a while with a bearish view. Shanghai has scope to test its key resistance at 3200 before a fallback can be seen.

Dow (39431.52, -0.21%) has dipped slightly but can still rise to 39900-40000 while above 39000. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is reversing lower and extending the rise to 41000-42000.

DAX (18742.22, -0.16%) has dipped slightly as the resistance at 18850-18900 is holding well. A break above it, if seen, can open doors towards 19100-19200. Else it may dip towards 18600-18500.

Nifty (22104.05, +0.22%) bounced back after testing 21821. While above 21821-21800-21700, there could be chances of a rise towards 22500 and then towards 23000-23250 by election-end. From there we can again get a stiff profit-taking down to 21500-21250. Only if the support breaks, the Nifty can fall to 21500-21300 or even lower to 21250-21000 in the near term itself.

Nikkei (38206.00, +0.11%) remains subdued. It might break below 38000 and fall towards 37600-37000 and then a bounce towards 39000 can be seen. Overall a broad range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3144.53, -0.11%) is oscillating around 3150. It has scope to test key resistance at 3200. Thereafter, we can expect to see a corrective fall towards 3100-3000.


Crude prices have resistance overhead while below which the outlook is bearish for the near term. Gold and Silver can fall while below the resistance at 2385-2400 and 29 respectively. Copper bounced back sharply towards its key resistance at 4.80. Need to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 2.50.

Brent ($ 83.42) looks ranged within $ 85-82. While below $ 85, it may break below $ 82 and fall towards $ 80-75.

WTI ($ 79.17) is stuck within $ 77-80. Key resistance is at $ 80-81. While that holds, it may break below $ 77.00 and fall towards $ 75-70.

Gold (2344.60) has fallen below 2350 as the resistance at 2385-2400 is holding well. A dip towards 2300 looks possible. In the medium term, a fall towards 2250-2200 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (28.47) is holding well below 29. While below 29, it can fall towards 28.00-27.50.

Copper (4.7885) bounced back sharply towards the resistance at 4.80 from a low of 4.6160. If 4.80 holds, a dip towards 4.60-4.50 could be seen. A decisive break above 4.80, if seen, could lead to a rise towards 5.10-5.15.

Natural Gas (2.3670) has risen back well above 2.30. A rise towards 2.5 looks likely in the near term.


6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.5% … Expected 4.3% … Previous 4.2%

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn 0.36% … Expected – … Previous 0.53%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn -0.1 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.2

Data Yesterday
12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 4.93 … Expected 4.80 … Previous 4.85 …Actual 4.83