The Dollar Index above 104.50 looks bullish to 105.50 and higher. Euro is likely to head towards 1.07-1.065 in the medium term if holds below 1.08 which can open up 106-106.50 on the Dollar Index. Aussie and Pound have recovered a bit from yesterday’s low and can trade within the range of 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.28-1.26 respectively for a while. EURJPY is moving higher within its range of 168-170 while USDJPY is headed towards 158. USDCNY has finally risen past 7.25 and now if sustained, can test 7.26/27 in the medium term. EURINR can trade within 89.50-91.25 region for some time. USDINR is likely to sustain trade within 83.60-83.20/83.00 region with a possible rise today towards 83.55/60.

Dollar Index (105.139) is holding well above 105. The FOMC policy meeting is due tomorrow where they are likely to keep rates unchanged. We may expect a range of 105.50-104 to hold for the near term. A break above 105.50 will open the door for 106-106.50.

EURUSD (1.0767) tested a low of 1.0732 yesterday before recovering from there. An immediate MA resistance can be spotted around 1.08 and while that holds, a fall to 1.07-1.065 could be possible in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (157.28) is rising as expected and can soon test 158 on the upside. Thereafter, whether the rise gets halted or extends further will have to be seen.

EURJPY (169.35) had dipped slightly to test 168.30 before reversing back from there. The pair needs to necessarily give a break on either side of the 168-170 range to give further directional clarity. Until then, the mentioned range of 168-170 can persist for a while.

USDCNY (7.2523) has finally risen past 7.25 and now if sustained, can target 7.26-7.28 in the medium term. Failure to sustain above 7.25 can bring it back towards 7.24/23 on the downside.

Aussie (0.6593) tested 0.6476 on the downside but is currently back within its range of 0.6580-0.6720. A strong break past 0.6615/20 will be needed for the pair to rise further, else it is likely to fall back again towards 0.6550-0.65.

Pound (1.2734) has bounced well from the support near 1.27 but unless a confirmed break on either side of the range is seen, it is likely to trade within the range of 1.28-1.26.

USDINR (83.5075) tested 83.51 on the upside yesterday. A test of 83.55/60 is possible soon before a dip is seen back towards 83.40/30.

EURINR (89.9321) continues to remain volatile within its earlier range of 89.50-91.25, which is likely to hold for some time.


The US Treasury yields sustain higher. There is room to rise in the near-term before reversing lower again. The US Fed meeting outcome and the US CPI data release tomorrow are important to watch. The German yields continue to move higher. The uptrend is intact, and the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and the 5Yr GoI are likely to remain inside their sideways range for some more time before breaking it on the upside eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and the 30Yr (4.58%) yields sustain higher. The 10Yr can test 4.5%-4.6% and the 30Yr can touch 4.7% before turning down again towards 4.3% and 4.4% respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and the 30Yr (2.79%) yields have risen further. The broader uptrend remains intact. The yields can rise to 2.8%-2.9% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) over the medium-term.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0610%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0355%) are looking mixed within their 7%-7.1%/7.12% range. This range can remain intact for some time. The bias is positive to breach 7.12% and rise to 7.2% and higher eventually.


Dow Jones and Nifty have to rise past 39000 and 23500 for increased bullishness, else can fall back. DAX has dipped further but broder outlook will remain bullish as long as it sustain above 18400-18200. Nikkei has broken above 39000 as expected and looks bullish to rise towards 40000 in the near term. Shanghai can test 3000 before a bounce back can be seen from there.

Dow (38868.04, +0.18%) remains range bound below 39000. We reiterate that a decisive break above 39000 is needed to go up to 40000. Else there is a danger of falling back to 38000.

DAX (18494.89, -0.34%) has risen back from around 18359. The bias is bullish to see a rise to 19000. Supports are at 18400 and 18200.

Nifty (23259.20, -0.13%) has come down from 23412. Failure to rise back from here and breach 23500 can drag the index down to below 23000 towards 22500 and even lower.

Nikkei (39151.50, +0.26%) has broken above the upper end of the 38000-39000 range as expected. A rise towards 40000 can be seen in the coming days while above 38000.

Shanghai (3016.68, -1.13%) is heading down towards the support at 3000 as expected. That could hold on its first testing and produce a bounce towards 3050-3100. In case a break below 3000, if seen, could see an extended fall to 2950.


Crude prices have risen sharply but has key resistance overhead, which if holds, can lead to a fall back from there. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bearish for the near term. Natural Gas has risen above 3.00 and looks bullish to target further upside. There could be some volatility in the market after the US CPI data release and FOMC meeting tomorrow.

Brent ($ 81.44) and WTI ($ 77.62) have risen sharply above $ 80 and $ 76 and moved up towards their resistance at $ 82.50 and $ 79 respectively. While those holds, a fall back towards $ 80-79 (Brent) and $ 76-75 (WTI) could be seen. Else would be further bullish towards $ 85 and $ 80-81.

Gold (2318.10) hovers above 2300. Resistance is seen at 2350 and then at 2400. View is to see a break below the lower end of the 2400-2300 range and fall towards 2250-2200 in the coming days.

Silver (29.23) trades lower below 30. It can fall towards 28.50-28.00. Thereafter we need to see if it bounces back towards 30 or falls further to 27.

Copper (4.5170) recovered from a low of 4.4310 yesterday and rose to 4.5650 today, but couldn’t sustain the rise and is coming off from there. Resistance is seen at 4.65-4.70. While that holds, a dip towards 4.4-4.3 cannot be ruled out.

Natural Gas (3.0150) has risen above the upper end of the 3.0-2.5 range. It has potential to rise towards 3.2-3.4 while above the support at 2.87-2.80.


6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.7% … Expected 4.3% … Previous 4.3%

Data Yesterday
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – … Expected -0.5% … Previous -0.5% …Actual -0.5%