The lower US ADP Employment release at 99k led the Dollar Index to extend its fall below 101 before slightly recovering from there. US NFP and Unemployment release today would be important to watch as to see whether the Index sustains above 101 or not. Euro on the other hand has risen past 1.11 and if sustained can further rise towards 1.1150-1.12 in the near term. USDJPY and EURJPY look further bearish in the near term while below 145 and 160 respectively. Aussie and Pound have risen well but a break past 0.6750 and 1.32 will be needed to maintain the ongoing bullishness. USDCNY is nearing the lower end of the 7.12/14-7.08 range. EURINR has risen past 93 and needs to hold well above the current levels to head towards 93.50-94. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.80 and 84.00.

The Dollar Index (101.044) tested 100.96 after the softer-than-expected US ADP Employment at 99K (136K) released yesterday. Although a slight recovery is seen above 101, market awaits to see the NFP and Unemployment data today. A stronger NFP is needed for the Index to continue its current recovery and move up towards 101.70/102 else it can again fall back below 101.

EURUSD (1.1110) has risen past 1.11 on Dollar weakness. Now, it needs to sustain above the current levels to head towards 1.1150-1.12 in the near term. A break below 1.11 can bring the pair back within its earlier range of 1.10-1.11 for some time.

Dollar-Yen (143.27) and EURJPY (159.18) continue to look bearish towards 142-140 and 158-156 while below 145 and 160 respectively.

USDCNY (7.0906) has been coming off sharply towards support of 7.08. The pair will have to necessarily hold above support to regain bullish momentum else can be vulnerable to fall towards 7.06/05 on a break below 7.08.

Aussie (0.6730) and Pound (1.3175) have risen well as expected. But a decisive break past 0.6750 and 1.32 will be needed for both pairs to maintain bullishness in the trend. Else they are likely to fall back towards 0.6650-0.66 and 1.31-1.3070 respectively.

USDINR (83.9875) continues to remain stable below the resistance at 84. For now, we are retaining our view of the range of 84.00-83.80 to hold in the near term. Only a break above 84.00 can bring in further bullishness.

EURINR (93.3144) looks stable above 93 for now and if sustained can head towards 93.50-94 in the coming sessions before possibly topping out. At the same time, any break below 93 immediately can trigger a fall towards 92.50.

The US Treasury and the German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The bearish view is intact, Both the German and US Treasury yields can fall more from here. The US Unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The 10Yr GoI sustains lower and is likely to resume the broader downtrend going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.72%) and the 30Yr (4.02%) yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The bearish view is intact to see a fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) while below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.20%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our broader bearish view. The yields can fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). Resistances are at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8554%) remains lower below 6.86%. The bias is bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75% eventually.

Dow Jones and Nifty have come down failing to sustain the recovery but chances of seeing a rise towards 41800-42000 and 25500-25600 cannot be ruled out as long as the support at 40500 and 25000-24900 holds. DAX remains lower and might fall towards 18400-18300. Nikkei could remain range for a while. Shanghai can rise towards 2850 while above 2775.

Dow (40755.75, -0.54%) has come down again. 40500 will be a crucial support which has to hold to keep alive the chances of rising back to 41800-42000. A break below 40500 will be bearish to see 40000-39500. The jobs data release today will be key in deciding the trend for the Dow.

DAX (18576.50, -0.08%) remains lower. The bias is negative while below 18650 to see a fall to 18400-18300. A sustained rise above 18700 is needed to turn the sentiment positive.

Nifty (25145.10, -0.21%) remains lower. While above the 25000-24900 support zone, the bullish bias will remain alive to see 25500-25600. Only a fall below 24900 will turn the outlook bearish.

Nikkei (36679.50, +0.08%) might trade within 36000-38000 range for a while.

Shanghai (2785.01, +0.03%) is holding well above the support at 2780-2775. While above 2775, a rise towards 2850 could be seen.

Brent and WTI have to rise past $ 74 and $ 71 respectively to turn bullish. Else they could fall towards $ 70 (Brent) and $ 66-65 (WTI). Gold and Copper have risen well and might extend the rise further on a break above 2550 and 4.2. Silver has risen above its resistance at 29 and while this break sustains, a further rise towards 30-31 might be seen. Natural gas looks bullish to see a break on the upper end of the range 2.0-2.3 and target further upside.

Brent ($ 72.81) rose $ 74.20 yesterday and has fallen back from there. Failure to break above $ 74-75 would be bearish to see a break below $ 72 and fall further towards $ 70.

WTI ($ 69.27) rose to $ 70.83 yesterday and has dipped from there. Failure to rise past $ 71 would be vulnerable to see a fall towards $ 66-65.

Gold (2546.10) has moved up sharply towards 2550 contrary to our view to see a fall towards 2450. A decisive break above 2550, if seen, can lead to a rise towards 2600-2610.

Silver (29.12) has risen past the resistance at 29. While this break sustains, a rise towards 30.00-31.00 could be seen. The chances of seeing a fall towards 27 has negated now.

Copper (4.1325) rose sharply to 4.1695 yesterday. A decisive break above 4.2, if seen, would open doors towards 4.4 and negate the danger of falling towards 4.0-3.9.

Natural Gas (2.2590) has bounced back well towards the upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range. It looks likely to break above 2.3 and rise further towards 2.4-2.5.

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 194K …Expected 164K …Previous 114K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.5% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.3%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.3

Data on Yesterday
———————-
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 4.61 …Previous 5.43 …Actual 6.01

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.4% …Actual 0.1%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 136K …Previous 111K …Actual 99K