The mixed outlook from the lower-than-expected US NFP, stable unemployment rate and a higher US Average Hourly earnings data on Friday took the Dollar Index down to 100.58 but managed to recover soon. Currently above 101, there is scope to test 102 on the upside. Euro can dip to 1.1050-1.10 while below 1.11. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen slightly and can rise a bit in the next few sessions while above 142 and 158. Aussie looks bearish towards 0.6650-0.66 while Pound can trade above 1.3085 and target 1.32. USDCNY has risen but needs to break above 7.12/14 to turn bullish for the medium term. EURINR has dipped as expected and a break below 93 if seen can trigger a fall to 92.50. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.80/85 and 84.00.

Dollar Index (101.256) tested 100.58 on Friday but has recovered well from there. A test of 101.50-102 is likely in the near term before declining back towards 101-100.50 again. 102-100.50 is likely to hold as a near-term trade region.

EURUSD (1.1080) could face interim resistance near 1.11 below which it can dip towards 1.1050-1.10 in the coming days.

Dollar-Yen (142.74) and EURJPY (158.19) have risen slightly and could rise towards 143/144 and 160 respectively while the broader outlook remains in a downtrend. A break below 142 and 158 will bring in lower targets of 140 and 156 into the picture. Before that a short corrective rise can be possible.

USDCNY (7.1086) has risen well today, recovering the fall seen over the last 3-sessions. But, the pair will have to break above 7.14 to turn bullish for the medium term else the current rise could extend to 7.12/14 region before falling back towards 7.08 again.

Aussie (0.6683) looks bearish for the near term towards 0.6650-0.66 while Pound (1.3135) may trade above 1.3085 and target to re-test 1.32.

USDINR (83.9525) may continue trade within 84.00-83.85/80 region.

EURINR (93.0609) has dipped as expected. A break below 93 will trigger a fall towards 92.50.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly in the early Asian session today after having fallen on Friday after the jobs report. The broader view remains bearish and any bounce from here could be short-lived. The yields are likely to fall more. The German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our bearish view. The 10Yr GoI remains lower and stable. The bias is negative to break the immediate support and fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.74%) and the 30Yr (4.04%) yields have inched up slightly in the early Asian session today. But the broader bearish view is intact to see 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside. Immediate resistances are at 3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr). Higher resistances are at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.17%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact to see 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) on the downside while below 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8542%) remains lower and stable below 6.86%. The bearish view remains intact to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%.

Equities have fallen sharply after the release of lower than expected US NFP data. Dow Jones, Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen sharply breaking below their mentioned support and looks bearish to fall more from here. Nifty too has broken its support of 25000 but has next key support below current level. Need to see if that holds or Nifty breaks lower. DAX has come down towards 18300 and failure to bounce back from here might be vulnerable to a further fall in the coming sessions.

Dow (40354, -1.01%) declined below 40500. That negates the rise to 41800-42000. View is now bearish to see 40000-39500 in the coming days.

DAX (18301.90, -1.48%) has come down to 18300 as expected. Failure to rise back from here can drag it down to 18000 and even 17500.

Nifty (24852.15, -1.17%) has come down sharply and has closed below 24900. A break below 24800, the next key support, can drag it down to 24500 and lower. That will negate the rise to 25500-25600 that we have been expecting.

Nikkei (35611.50, -2.23%) has fallen, breaking below the support of 36000. While this break sustains, a further dip to 35000-34000 might be seen.

Shanghai (2742.05, -0.86%) has broken below its support at 2775 contrary to our view that it will hold and lead to a rise towards 2850. A fall to 2700 looks likely. After that we need to see if it bounces back from 2700 or extends the fall towards 2680-2650.

Weaker than expected US NFP data release on Last Friday have led to a sharp fall in the commodities. Crude prices have recovered slightly from Friday’s fall and might remain ranged for a while if their key immediate support holds. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply but downside might be limited to 2500-2450, 27.40 and 3.97. Natural gas remains positive for a break above the upper end of its sideways range.

Brent ($ 72.02) fell sharply to $ 70.61 last Friday and has bounced back a bit from there. If it manages to hold above $ 70, a range of $ 70-74/75 might be the trading range for some time.

WTI ($ 69.27) fell to $ 67.17 last Friday and has bounced back slightly from there. If the support at $ 66-65 holds, a range of $ 65-71 might be the trading range for some time.

Gold (2526.80) lacks strength to rise past 2550. Support is at 2500 and then at 2450. While above these, chances of break above 2550 and rise towards 2600-2610 looks possible.

Silver (28.38) fell sharply to 28.01 last Friday. Immediate support come up at 27.40. If that holds, it may bounce back towards 29.50-30.00 again. A broad range of 27.40-29.50/30.00 may hold for some time. In case a break below 27.40, if seen, can be bearish for a fall towards 26.50-26.00.

Copper (4.0765) has fallen sharply towards 4.05. Immediate support is seen at 3.97. While that holds, a bounce back towards 4.2 can be seen again. Any fall below 3.97, if seen, could be limited to 3.90.

Natural Gas (2.1960) rose to 2.2940 last Friday and has fallen back from there. For now the 2.0-2.3 range remains intact. Immediate support is seen at 2.10. While that holds, view remains bullish for a break above 2.3 and rise further towards 2.4-2.5.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn -…Expected 0.8% …Previous 0.8% Actual 0.7%

Data on Friday
———————-
9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 194K …Expected 164K …Previous 89K …Actual 142K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.5% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.3% …Actual 4.2%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.4