The Dollar Index can remain stable within 101.50-100.20 for now. Watch US ISM Manufacturing data release scheduled today. The Euro, while below 1.12 can trade within 1.12-1.11 for now. USDJPY and EURJPY seem to be rising well but could soon face near term resistance which could limit the upside. The Aussie needs to rise past 0.6950 to become further bullish while the Pound may trade within 1.3440-1.33. USDCNY is trading near the crucial support at 7. EURINR tested 94 on the upside but could not sustain and started coming off. For now, the range of 94-92.50/92 can persist for a while. USDINR has closed just below the crucial level of 83.80. The bias remains ranged between 83.70/80- and 83.40/50 for a while.

Dollar Index (100.747) slipped slightly below the mentioned range of 101.50-100.20, tested 100.179 before recovering from there. For now, we expect the mentioned range to hold for some time. Watch the US ISM Manufacturing data release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1140) failed in its attempt to rise past 1.12 yesterday and started coming off from the high of 1.1208. A strong break past 1.12 will be needed to make the outlook further bullish, else while the resistance holds, the pair is likely to hold the range of 1.11-1.12. There could be some scope to test 1.1050-1.10 but that would come only on a confirmed break below 1.11.

Dollar-Yen (143.93) and the EURJPY (160.35) were expected to fall towards 140 and 157-156 respectively but instead, they started rising back from the levels of 141.64 and 158.10 itself. Immediate resistances are spotted around 144-145 and 161 respectively which suggests that the ongoing rise can be short-lived if the resistances hold.

USDCNY (7.0171) continues to trade near the support around 7. A bounce from the current levels will be needed to rise towards 7.03 and higher to negate the fall towards 6.97/6.94 mentioned in our earlier edition. Watch price action closely around 7.

Aussie (0.6929) looks stable above 0.69 for now. A confirmed break past 0.6950 can take it higher towards 0.70-0.72 in the medium term. Only a break below 0.68 if seen, can make the outlook bearish again.

Pound (1.3383) on the other hand, continues to trade within the range of 1.33-1.3440 for now. A decisive break past 1.3450 will be needed to maintain the ongoing trend, else it is likely to fall back towards 1.33-1.3250 in the near term.

USDINR (83.7975) closed just below the upper end of the mentioned range of 83.80/70-83.40. For now, our preferred view is for the pair to fall towards 83.50/40 and the range to remain intact for a while.

EURINR (93.3653) tested 94 on the upside before coming off sharply from there. Unless a rise past the resistance of 94 is seen, the cross is likely to move within the 94-92.50/92 region.

The US Treasury yields have inched up. Resistances can cap the upside and keep the broader downtrend intact. We expect the yields to fall further from here. The US ISM PMI data release today is important. A weak PMI number can drag the yield further lower. The German yields remain lower. The view remains bearish. More fall is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. We expect it to sustain above the support and rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (3.77%) and the 30Yr (4.11%) yields have inched up. View remains bearish while below 3.8%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.15%-4.2% (30Yr). The yields can fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.12%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields remain lower. The downtrend is intact to see a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). Resistance at 2.2%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) can continue to cap the upside if there is a bounce.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7495%) has dipped slightly. The yield is likely to sustain above 6.7% and move up towards 6.8% in the coming days.

Dow Jones has bounced back well while Dax and Nifty have fallen and could test respective supports before resuming to rise again soon. Nikkei has fallen but may remain ranged above support at 37500/37200 while Shanghai continues to shoot up with another gap up opening today, targeting 3400-3410 soon where a pause can be seen.

The sharp bounce from the low of 41929 on the Dow (42330.15, +0.041%) indicates the presence of strong buyers. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 42800-43000.

DAX (19324.93, -0.76%) has come down. But support in the 19200-19100 region can limit the downside. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 19700-19800 and even 20000.

Nifty (25810.85, -1.41%) has declined below 26000. A test of 25600 can happen first and then a rise back above 26000 can be seen. The rise to 26700-26800 mentioned yesterday will be delayed now.

Nikkei (38524.35, +1.59%) could face immediate support near 37500/37200 which if holds can take the price up, towards 40000 again in the near term. Thereafter, the price will have to break on either side to give directional clarity for the medium term. The immediate range of 37200-40000 can persist for some time.

Shanghai (3336.50, +8.06%) saw another gap up opening today at 3194.72 and has been up 8% already today so far. It is headed towards the weekly resistance zone near 3400-3410, earlier seen in Apr-23.

Most commodities look bearish. The rise in the Middle East conflicts which had led to the killing of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and the hitting of Houthi targets in Yemen has not received any response from Iran, which backs these three groups. It is yet to impact a supply disruption in Iran but despite the rising conflicts, Brent and WTI have dipped and can remain stable to bearish in the near term. Gold, Silver, and Copper have fallen and could continue to fall in the next few sessions. Natural Gas also looks bearish below crucial resistance near 2.9-3.00.

Brent ($ 71.83) tested a high of $ 72.79 but it couldn’t sustain higher and has fallen back from there despite rising tensions in the Middle East. A further fall towards $ 70 or lower can be seen if $ 73 holds as a strong resistance just now. Else there could be some chances of moving up to $ 74/75 before the expected fall toward $ 70 or lower is seen in the medium term.

WTI ($ 68.28) has fallen back after testing a high of $ 69.32 in line with our expectations. It can fall further to $ 67 or lower while it sustains below $ 70.

Gold (2660) has dipped. It can test 2630-2600 on the downside before a break above 2700 and an eventual rise towards 2750-2800 takes place.

Silver (31.60) fell in line with our expectations to 31.59. When seen on the daily line chart, 32.50 is likely to hold as a crucial resistance which could lead to a further fall to 31-30.50 soon. But if 31.50 holds as interim support, the price could initially remain stable within 31.50-32 for a few sessions before heading towards 31-30.50. The overall view is bearish below 33-32.50.

Copper (4.5590) has plunged from a high of 4.79 to 4.55 due to lower-than-expected China Caixin PMI. If 4.8 holds strong, it can soon target 4.4-4.2.

Natural Gas (2.8930) tested a high of 2.9340 so far. As long as it sustains below the crucial weekly resistance of 2.90-3.0, there is a possibility of seeing a fall towards 2.6 in the near term. Else, it needs to surpass 3 and sustain higher to move further up towards 3.2.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.5% …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.7%

23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Expn – …Expected 12.0 …Previous 13.0

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 50.2 …Expected 49.6 …Previous 49.8

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.0 …Expected 56.7 …Previous 57.5

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 51.8 …Expected 47.7 …Previous 49.0

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 44.8 …Previous 45.8

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 53.0 …Expected 52.3 …Previous 52.5

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 49.5

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 48.1 …Expected 47.6 …Previous 47.2

DATA YESTERDAY:-
————–
1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.7 …Expected 50.5 …Previous 50.4 …Actual 49.8

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.6% …Previous 0.6% …Actual 0.5%