The Dollar Index gained strength on Friday after the Stronger US NFP and lower Unemployment release. Still, a rise past 102.50/75 will be needed to head towards 104 or higher in the near term. Euro slipped below 1.10 and if the fall continues, it can get extended to 1.09 in the coming sessions. USDJPY and EURJPY if sustain rise, can test 150-151 and 164 respectively in the near term. Aussie has immediate support around current levels; need to see whether it holds and bounces back or extends the fall further. The fall continued in the Pound on Friday as well and it needs to see a rise past 1.32 to become bullish again, else it has a fair chance of testing 1.30-1.29 before rising back. EURINR may trade within 94-92.50/92 for now. USDINR below 84-84.10 can fall back towards 83.80/70 in the coming sessions.

Higher than expected US NFP at 254k (159k) and lower than previous Unemployment at 4.1% (4.2%) led Dollar Index (102.444) to surge significantly on Friday. Still, a confirmed break past 102.50/75 will be needed to make the outlook further bullish to 104 or higher in the near term. Otherwise, it can get dragged to previous levels below 102.

EURUSD (1.0974) fell sharply below 1.10 as the Dollar strengthened sharply after stronger US NFP and lower Unemployment release on Friday. Immediate support can be spotted around 1.09 which can be tested soon if the fall continues further. Thereafter, we need to see whether 1.09 holds or the fall extends even below it.

Dollar-Yen (148.29) and the EURJPY (163.21) in line with our bullish view, have risen well and could soon test 150-151 and 164 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.0171) is closed today. The currency will resume trade tomorrow after a week-long holiday.

Aussie (0.6801) has immediate support around the current levels. The support needs to hold and produce a bounce back else, it would be vulnerable to see a fall towards 0.67 or even lower. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Pound (1.3127) extended the fall on Friday as well. A low of 1.3069 was witnessed before it closed above 1.31. The pair needs to rise past 1.32 to become bullish again. Else, chances of seeing a fall towards 1.30-1.29 cannot be negated in the near term.

USDINR (83.9775) traded flat on Friday. Going ahead, while the resistances at 84 and 84.10 holds, the pair can fall back to 83.90/80 in the near term.

EURINR (92.1672) observed a low of 92.0371 before recovering a bit from there. For now, the range of 94-92 seems to be holding well. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. Any fall below 92 if seen, can drag it lower to 91 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields rose, breaking above their intermediate resistance contrary to our expectation to see a fall from there. The rise was triggered by the strong NFP data and a fall in the unemployment rate. The NFP came in higher at 254K and the Unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The yields can now see an extended rise from here and then resume the downtrend. The German yields have risen and are poised at their resistance. We expect the yields to reverse lower from here and resume the downtrend. The 10Yr GoI has surged. The upmove seems to be gaining momentum. The outlook is bullish, and more rise is on the cards.

The US 10Yr (3.97%) and the 30Yr (4.25%) yields surged above the resistance at 3.85% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr). An extended rise to 4.05%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.25%-4.3% (30Yr) looks likely now before the expected reversal happens to keep the broader downtrend intact.

The German 10Yr (2.21%) and the 30Yr (2.49%) yields have risen and are poised at their resistance. We expect this resistance to hold and trigger a reversal. Broader trend is down, and the yields can fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) and then possibly reverse higher.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8339%) has surged above 6.8%. The outlook is bullish. 6.86%-6.88% can be tested now. 6.8% can act as a good support now. The 10Yr may now have the potential to see 7% over the medium-term.

Dow and DAX have risen well on Friday. Nifty indeed saw a fall towards 25000 as anticipated. Nifty if holds above 25000/24800, then it can produce a bounce towards 25500 and higher towards 26000 keeping our broader uptrend alive. Nikkei has risen above 39000 and looks bullish towards 40000. Shanghai will open tomorrow after a week-long holiday. It will face crucial resistance near 3400-3410.

Dow (42352.75, +0.81%) has risen back well from the low of 41972 on Friday. The bias is bullish to see a rise to 43000 and higher while the Dow remains above 41700.

DAX (19120.93, +0.55%) has risen back as expected. The 18900-18800 support is holding well in line with our expectations. That keeps intact our broader bullish view of seeing 19800-20000 on the upside.

Nifty (25014.60, -0.93%) has come down to 25000 as expected. Support is around 24800 from where we can expect the Nifty to bounce back to 25500 and higher. That will keep alive the broader uptrend.

Nikkei (39352.94, +1.86%) has surpassed 39,000 and could extend to 40000. Price action around this level will be crucial in determining the direction to see if it pushes itself towards 41000 or retraces back to the 39000-38000 region.

Shanghai (3336.50, +8.06%) remains closed today and will open tomorrow after a week-long holiday. If it faces resistance around 3400-3410 coming from highs of Jul-22 and May-23, then it can start to decline else, it can move higher to test the next target resistance near 3700 coming from the previous highs of Feb-21, Sep-24, and Dec-21. Watch price action near 3400-3410.

Crude prices remain bullish for the near term. Brent can target 79-80 while above 75 and WTI can target 76-77 while above 74. Gold and Copper looks ranged between 2700-2640 and 4.5-4.8 in the near term. Silver has broken above its immediate resistance level of 32.50 and looks bullish towards 33-34 in the near term. Nat Gas remains bearish towards 2.7-2.6 while below resistance at 3.

Brent ($ 77.73) is holding above 75 and while above this it can rise towards 79-80. If the tension prevails in the Middle East, the rise to 80 can occur much earlier than expected. Overall, a broad range of 80-70 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 74.15) tested a high of 75.57 on Friday and has opened slightly lower at 74.40 today. As long as it holds above 73-74, we retain our view of seeing a further rise towards 76-77 in the near term. A broad range of 77-65 can hold for the medium term.

Gold (2667.40) maintains the narrow range of 2700-2640 and can remain in this range for the near term until a breakout on either side takes place.

Silver (32.47) broke above 32.5 and tested a high of 33.23 on Friday. It is currently trading above 32.5 and can target 33-34 on the higher side in upcoming sessions. Else it has to break below 32.50 to dip towards 31.5-31.0.

Copper (4.5915) is inching up towards 4.7-4.8. A range of 4.5-4.8 is expected to hold for some time, both being immediate support and resistance levels.

Natural Gas (2.7950) tested a high of 3.0190 before falling back sharply from there to 2.8310 on Friday. The sell-off came in after a report from BOK Financial Securities stated the outlook for tropical storms to move away from the Gulf of Mexico, easing concern about a disruption to US nat-gas production. The price can fall further towards 2.7-2.6 in the near term while resistance on the charts near 3 holds.

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.1%

DATA FRIDAY:-
————–
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 62.1 …Expected 58.9 …Previous 60.9 …Actual 57.7

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 135K …Expected 144K …Previous 159K …Actual 254K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.2% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.2% …Actual 4.1%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.5 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3