The Dollar Index needs to rise past 102.75 to make the outlook further bullish. Else it can get dragged towards 102 or even lower. The Euro is attempting to rise back. A confirmed break past 1.10 if seen, can take it higher to 1.1050. Failure to do so can lead to a fall to the support of 1.09. USDJPY and EURJPY are coming off contrary to our bullish view to 150-151 and 164 respectively. If the fall continues, a test of 146 and 161 is likely. Aussie continues to fall further. Watch price action closely around current levels. The Pound looks stable around the current levels. A rise past 1.31 will be needed to make the outlook bullish again else, it has a fair chance of testing 1.30-1.29 before rising back. EURINR may trade within 94-92.50/92 for now. USDINR below 84-84.10 can fall back towards 83.80/70 in the coming sessions. Watch out for the US Trade Balance data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (102.412) failed to see a rise past 102.75 and started to decline from the high of 1002.62 itself. Only a confirmed break past 102.75 can make the outlook further bullish to 104 or higher in the near term. Otherwise, it can get dragged to previous levels below 102. US Trade balance scheduled today might give better directional clarity. Friday.

EURUSD (1.0979) is recovering well from its fall to the low of 1.0951. Still, a decisive break past 1.10 will be needed to head towards 1.1050 in the near term. Else, there is enough room for the pair to test immediate support around 1.09.

Dollar-Yen (147.70) and the EURJPY (162.16) contrary to our view of seeing a rise towards 150-151 and 164 in the near term, both the pairs have been coming off. If the fall continues further, can get extended to 146 and 161 respectively before attempting to rise back stronger.

USDCNY (7.0705) has surged significantly today. If the pair sustains above 7.07, it can rise further to 7.10 or higher in the coming sessions. Else failure to do so can bring it back to 7.05-7.00.

Aussie (0.6745) continued to fall further towards 0.67. China’s economic concerns continue to remain and drag the pair as the AUDUSD is the largest exporter to China. A strong break below 0.67 if seen, can take it down to 0.66-0.65 in the near term. A sustained rise past 0.68 will be needed to negate this fall. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Pound (1.3093) observed a low of 1.3058 before recovering a bit from there. A sustained rise past 1.31 will be needed to make the outlook bullish again. We are not fully negating the possibility of a fall towards 1.30-1.29 until a further rise is seen.

USDINR (83.9825) is holding well below 84. We are retaining our view of seeing a fall back to 83.90/80 in the coming sessions.

EURINR (92.2297) is trading lower within its range of 94-92. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. Any fall below 92 if seen, can drag it lower to 91 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields are witnessing an extended rise. The expected reversal will now happen after seeing some more rise from here. The German yields have risen above their resistance contrary to our expectation to see a reversal. This can take the yields further higher in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up and is keeping intact our bullish view. The RBI meeting outcome tomorrow will be important to watch.

The US 10Yr (4.01%) and the 30Yr (4.30%) yields are witnessing the extended rise. 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.35% (30Yr) are the crucial levels from where we can expect the yields to turn down again and fall back to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.25%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields have risen above their resistances at 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. If this break sustains, the yields can rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) from here. That will negate our earlier view of seeing a fallback.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8507%) continues to move up. It is heading up towards 6.86%-6.88% in line with our expectation. As mentioned yesterday, the 10Yr can rise to 7% over the medium-term.

The Dow Jones fell below 42000, driven by rising uncertainty in the Middle East. Watch if 41750 holds to give more clarity on whether the index will bounce back or fall further towards 41000. The DAX remained stable but closed lower. Meanwhile, the Nifty index has declined to its 24800-support level. Only if this support holds, the bullish outlook targeting 26000 and higher remains intact; otherwise, a drop to 24500/300 is possible. The Nikkei lacks the momentum to break past 39500. Shanghai reopened after a week-long break, gapping up to 3674.40 but the rally seems to be frizzing out and leading to a decline instead.

Dow (41954.24, -0.94%) has declined below 42000. Support at 41750 is crucial while above this the bullish view of seeing a rise to 43000 will remain alive. Only a sustained break below 41750 will bring in the danger of a fall to 41000.

DAX (19104.10, -0.09%) is managing to hold above the 18900-18800 support zone. A strong follow-through rise above 19200 will boost the momentum for a rise to 19800-2000 in line with our expectations. A break below 18800 will turn the outlook negative for a fall to 18600-18400.

Nifty (24795.75, -0.87%) continues to fall. Failure to bounce back from here can drag it down to 24500-24300. That in turn will negate the chances of a rise back above 25000 that we had mentioned yesterday.

Nikkei (38885.66, -1.14%) has retreated after testing a high of 39560.78, falling below the 39000 level. While it remains below 40000-39,000, a test of the support zone between 38500 and 38000 could be likely before an attempt to rebound towards 39000 again.

Shanghai (3478.59, +4.26%) opened sharply above 3,400 to test 3674.40 on opening after a week-long holiday but remains below its Feb-21 high of 3731.687. A strong pull back towards 3400 looks possible which if sustained can drag it lower towards 3300-3000 soon. Look for a pause around 3400, which if seen can let the price to stabilize for a few sessions.

Crude prices rose sharply to their immediate resistance levels as expected. While the levels hold a broad range of 81-70 in Brent and 71-60 in WTI can be seen for the medium term. A sustained break above 81 and 71 could turn further bullish and could come into the picture if the Middle East tensions rise on any retaliation seen from Israel. Gold and Copper look ranged between 2700-2640 and 4.7-4.5 while Silver and Natural Gas can fall towards 31.5-31.0 and 2.6 respectively in the near term.

Brent ($ 80.06) tested resistance near $ 81.16 yesterday. While this holds, a fall to $ 75-70 can take place in the near term. A broad range of 80/81-70 can hold for some time. If there is no retaliation from Israel, Brent could dip in the near term else can rally further towards $ 85.

WTI ($ 76.31) rose sharply to test $ 77.40 as expected. Immediate resistance is at $ 78.0-77.5 and while it holds WTI can trade within a range of $ 78-65 for some time. Alternatively, a break above $ 78, if seen can be bullish towards $ 80 or higher.

Gold (2663.20) dips slightly, near term looks ranged between 2700-2640 until a breakout on either side takes place.

Silver (31.73) broke below 32.5 and fell to a low of 31.66 yesterday, negating our bullish outlook. While below 32.5-32.0 near term looks bearish towards 31.5-31.0.

Copper (4.4745) tested a high of 4.66 yesterday and has fallen sharply from there. Note that 4.65/4.70 is acting as a good resistance and while this holds Copper could break below 4.50 to move towards 4.40/4.30 soon.

Natural Gas(2.7340) has fallen from 2.7470 on the outlook for demand destruction from Hurricane Milton. The hurricane has strengthened into a powerful storm and will likely knock out electricity in Florida and decrease demand from power plants to produce electricity according to news sources. The near term could see a dip in prices towards 2.60.

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected -70.6 …Previous -78.8

DATA YESTERDAY:-
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9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.0% …Actual 0.2%