The Dollar Index needs to rise past 102.75 to make the outlook further bullish. Else it can get dragged towards 102 or even lower. The Euro failed in its attempt to rise past 1.10 and while below it, a test to the support of 1.09 could be seen. The outlook on USDJPY and EURJPY appears a bit uncertain but we are not ruling out the possibility of a fall to 146 and 161 until further directional clarity. Aussie is rising back but the upside looks capped at 0.68. Overall, the view appears bearish below 0.68. Pound needs a rise past 1.31 to make the outlook bullish Downside could be limited to 1.30-1.2950. EURINR is trading lower within the range of 94-92.50/92, need to see whether it holds or falls further. USDINR below 84-84.10 can fall back towards 83.90/80 in the coming sessions. Watch out for the RBI Policy meeting scheduled today.

Dollar Index (102.524) continues to remain stable above 102.50. Still, a strong rise past 102.75 will be needed to make the outlook further bullish to 104 or higher in the near term. Otherwise, it can get dragged to previous levels below 102.

EURUSD (1.0971) failed in its attempt to rise past 1.10 and started to decline from the high of 1.0996 itself. Only a confirmed break past 1.10 if seen, can take it higher to 1.1050. Else while below 1.10, the pair is likely to test immediate support around 1.09.

The immediate outlook appears a bit uncertain on Dollar-Yen (148.21) and the EURJPY (162.61). For now, we are not ruling out the possibility of seeing a fall toward 146 and 161 respectively until further directional clarity. On the upside, possible targets could be 150-152 and 164 respectively.

USDCNY (7.0630) tested 7.08 on the upside before cooling down a bit. A sustained rise past 7.07 will be needed to head towards 7.10 or higher in the coming sessions. Else, below it the pair is likely to fall back towards previous levels of 7.05 or even 7.00.

Aussie (0.6737) observed a low of 0.6715 before recovering a bit from there. Even if the pair rises further, the rise could be short-lived to 0.68. On the downside, a strong break below 0.67 can drag it down to 0.66-0.65 in the near term. Only a sustained rise past 0.68 will be needed to negate this fall (looks less likely). Overall, the view appears bearish below 0.68.

Pound (1.3096) is gradually attempting to rise back. A sustained rise past 1.31 can take it towards 1.32 or higher in the near term. The downside could be limited to 1.30-1.2950 for now.

USDINR (83.9675) closed around 83.9675 yesterday. While below 84, we are retaining our view of seeing a fall back to 83.90/80 in the coming sessions. RBI Policy meeting is scheduled today where market expects the interest rates to remain unchanged at 6.25%.

EURINR (92.0783) is nearing the lower end of its range of 94-92. Need to see whether it holds and bounces back or extends the fall to 91. Watch price action closely around 92.

The US Treasury and the German yields remained stable. The Treasury yields can rise further from here and then turn down again to keep the broader downtrend intact. The US CPI data release tomorrow will need a watch. A low CPI number can drag the yields lower. The German yields on the other hand can negate the danger of falling back if they get a strong follow-through rise from here. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The RBI meeting outcome today will need a close watch. The expectation is to keep the policy rates unchanged.

The US 10Yr (4.01%) and the 30Yr (4.29%) yields remain stable. We repeat that 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.35% (30Yr) are the crucial levels. A reversal is possible from there to keep the downtrend intact for a fall to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr) and lower.

The German 10Yr (2.24%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields remain stable above 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the yields up to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). That in turn will negate our earlier bearish view of seeing a reversal.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8077%) has come down sharply. But support at 6.8%-6.78% can limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact for a rise to 7%. Intermediate dips like this will be short-lived.

The Dow Jones held its support level at 41,800 and has risen past 42,000 keeping the upside view alive for now. The DAX remains stable above 19,000 but lacks the strength to build upward momentum. Nifty maintained support at 24,700 and climbed past 25,000. Meanwhile, the Nikkei gapped up to 39,400 but has since retreated keeping the near-term view ranged between 38000-40000. As anticipated, the Shanghai Index pulled back to a low of 3,323.96 before staging a recovery. Need to see if it can manage to sustain trade above 3300 or fall lower.

Dow (42080.37, +0.30%) is managing to hold above 41750 and is keeping alive the bullish view of seeing 43000 on the upside. As mentioned yesterday, only a break below 41750 can drag it down to 41000.

DAX (19066.47, -0.20%) seems to be struggling to get a strong follow-through buying. However, while above the 18900-18800 support zone, the bias remains bullish to break 19200 and rise to 19800-20000. Only a break below 18800 will take it down to 18600-18400 and negate the above-mentioned rise.

Nifty (25013.15, +0.88%) has risen back well. A strong follow-through rise from here and a subsequent rise past 25200 is needed to reduce the danger of the fall to 24500-24300 and bring back the bullish momentum and consider higher targets of 25500+ levels into the picture.

Nikkei (39178.70, +0.62%) is stuck in the range of 38000-40000 and is expected to hold the same for a few more sessions; a breakout on either side of the range is required to get further directional clarity.

Shanghai (3311.39, -5.11%) opened below 3,400 today but currently trades above 3,300. A sustained rise above 3,400 is necessary for an extension toward 3,600–3,700. Otherwise, a deeper pullback to the 3,100–3,000 zone could occur soon.

Crude and gasoline prices fell as China refrained from adding new stimulus measures. If the immediate support levels hold, Brent and WTI can bounce back towards 80-81 and 76-77 respectively in the near term. Metal prices have fallen sharply to their respective support levels and while these levels hold, a bounce back is expected in the near term. Nat can extend the fall towards 2.6 in the near term.

Brent ($ 77.30) rose to a high of $ 81.14 but fell back sharply from there to $ 77.18 after China’s National Development and Reform Commission failed to announce any new large stimulus measures after their meeting held yesterday. Crucial support is now seen at $ 75, which if holds can take Brent back to $ 80-81 in the near term. If it happens to break below $ 75 then it can extend the fall further towards $ 70-68 again.

WTI ($ 73.60) tested the resistance at $ 78.48 and fell sharply from there to $ 72.69 yesterday. Immediate support is at $ 72 which if holds can lead to a bounce to $ 76-77 in the near term. A break below $ 72, if seen, would be limited to 68-67 on the downside.

Gold (2637.50) tested a low of 2623.40 yesterday. Immediate support can be seen near 2630-2600 above which Gold can bounce back towards 2660-2700 in the near term. A broad range of 2600-2700 can remain intact for some time.

Silver (30.84) fell sharply and tested a low of 30.35 yesterday. Immediate support is at 30 above which it can bounce back towards 31.5-32.0 in the near term. Alternatively, a break below 30 can be bearish for Silver towards 28.5-28.0.

Copper (4.4625) broke below its immediate support and fell to a low of 4.4235 yesterday. If the resistance at 4.6/4.7 holds it can fall further towards 4.4-4.3 from current levels.

Natural Gas (2.7010) has fallen below 2.7 as the pressure on the outlook for demand destruction from Hurricane Milton continues. The price may have scope to fall towards 2.6 in the near term.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn 6.50% … Expected 6.50% … Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
… Expn – … Expected – … Previous 3.5%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
… Expn – … Expected 6.75% … Previous 6.75%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
————–
12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected -70.6 …Previous -78.9 … Actual – 70.4