The Dollar Index looks bullish towards 104 and higher while above 102.50. The Euro has slipped below 1.09 but has risen back slightly. The price can head towards 1.08 on a confirmed break below 1.09. The USDJPY and EURJPY have a fair chance of rising towards 150-152 and 164 respectively while above 146 and 162-161.50. Aussie and Pound need to either see a rise past 0.68-0.6850 and 1.31 or a break below 0.67 and 1.30 respectively for further directional clarity. EURINR, below 92.50-92, looks bearish to 91. USDINR has risen past 84 as expected and now a revised range of 84.12-84.00/83.90 can hold for some time while resistance near 84.12 holds.

Dollar Index (103.211) tested 103.35 yesterday. While the rise sustains, the overall view remains bullish to 104-106 for the near to medium term. Immediate support is seen at 102.50.

EURUSD (1.0904) observed a low of 1.0887 yesterday before rising back from there. Currently, it is trading near the crucial support around the current levels. Watch price action closely around the level of 1.09. A rising Dollar Index towards 104/106 will drag down the Euro towards 1.08 soon.

Dollar-Yen (149.63) and the EURJPY (163.17) are nearing our mentioned targets around 150-152 and 164 respectively. Thereafter, a decline from the target levels towards 146 and 162/161.50 can be seen.

USDCNY (7.1020) has indeed risen past 7.10 as the markets found the announcement of stimulus measures on Saturday to be underwhelming due to the lack of concrete additional stimulus measures. Now, the pair needs to sustain above current levels to head towards 7.11-7.1250. At the same time failure to sustain can lead to a fall back towards 7.05 to 7.00 or even lower.

Aussie (0.6727) and Pound (1.3063) need to either rise past 0.68-0.6850 and 1.31 respectively to make the outlook bullish again or fall below 0.67 to 0.66-0.65 and 1.30-1.29 respectively. Watch price action for the near term for directional clarity.

USDINR (84.0480) tested 84.0750 yesterday, in line with our view of seeing a rise towards 84.10/12. We may expect the pair to trade within 84.12-84.00 region for a few sessions before declining to 83.90. Thereafter, we need to see whether it rises past 84.12 or sustains below 84.

EURINR (91.6433) remains bearish towards 91 in the near term while it remains below 92.50-92.

The US Treasury yields are turning down. The resistance seems to be holding well for now. A further fall will confirm the same and will drag the yields lower from here itself without seeing an extended rise that was mentioned yesterday. The German yields sustain higher. The view is bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has been stuck in a narrow range within its broad range for a few days now. The sideways consolidation can continue for some more time before a rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and the 30Yr (4.38%) yields have dipped. The resistances at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) seems to be holding for now. A further fall will confirm the same and open the doors for a decline to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr). That in turn will negate the chances of the extended rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday.

The German 10Yr (2.27%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields sustain higher. While above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) the bias is bullish to see a rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7827%) is stuck between 6.75% and 6.8% within the broad 6.7%- 6.85% range. Bias is bullish to break 6.85% and rise to 7% over the medium term.

Dow reached a record high of 43139 before closing above the 43000 mark. Both the DAX and Nikkei have risen above 19500 and 40000, respectively. As long as the DAX holds above the interim support of 19300-19200, and the Nikkei remains above 39500, the outlook remains positive, with targets of 19800-20000 for the DAX and 41000 for the Nikkei. The Nifty has climbed above 25100, and a break above 25250 is needed to confirm further upside potential towards 25500/700. Meanwhile, Shanghai continues to trade within a narrow range of 3200/3180 to 3300 and is likely to remain in this consolidation phase for a few more sessions before moving higher.
Dow (43065.22, +0.47%) has risen into the 43000-43200 region as expected. As mentioned yesterday, a corrective fall to 42700-42500 is a possibility from around 43200-43300 before the Dow targets 44000.

DAX (19508.29, +0.69%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact for a rise to 19800-20000.

Nifty (25127.95, +0.66%) has risen back above 25000. A strong rise above 25250 will be needed to clear the way for a rise to 25500-25700 and higher. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (40234.82, +1.59%) has risen above 40000, and as long as it sustains above 39500, a further rise towards 41,000 is likely. However, failure to maintain above 40,000 could lead to a decline towards 39,500, with a potential extension to 38,000.

Shanghai (3270.7704, -0.43%) is expected to hold within the 3200/3180 to 3300 range. A breakout above 3300 could drive the index higher to 3400, while a drop below 3200/3180 may result in a decline towards 3050. We need to wait and watch which way the price breaks out.

Crude prices stumble due to the lack of Chinese stimulus. As long as the immediate support levels hold, a broad range of 81-75 on Brent and 76-70 on WTI can hold for the near term. The outlook for gold remains to range between 2700 and 2620. Silver and Copper have fallen towards their respective support levels. While the levels hold, a bounce back to 32.5-33.0 and 4.5-4.6 respectively can be seen in the upcoming sessions. Natural Gas has fallen sharply and can target 2.40-2.35 in the near term.

Brent ($ 75.17) fell sharply to a low of 74.86. While the immediate support at 75 holds, a range of 75-81 can hold for the near term. Only a sustained break below 75 can take it further down towards its interim support at 70-68.

WTI ($ 71.53) broke below 75 and tested a low of 71.81 before closing slightly higher at 73.83 yesterday. Immediate support is seen at 70 above which a range of 76/77-70 can hold for some time. Alternatively, a break below 70, if seen can bring it down to 65.

Gold (2668) fell slightly yesterday. It can sustain within the narrow range of 2700-2620 for some time until a breakout on either side is seen.

Silver (31.48) dipped to a low of 30.94 yesterday. Immediate trend support can be seen near 31. While this holds, Silver can gradually rise towards 32.5-33.0 in the near term. Only a sustained break below 31 will be bearish towards 30.5-30.0.

Copper (4.40) fell towards its immediate support at 4.4. While the support holds, a corrective rise to 4.5-4.6 can take place before continuing its downtrend towards 4.3-4.2.

Natural Gas (2.4710) tumbled and fell sharply to 2.4760 yesterday due to warmer weather forecasts in US. While below 2.5 it can extend the fall further towards 2.40-2.35 before a bounce back to 2.8-2.9 is seen eventually.

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.0% … Expected 4.1% … Previous 4.1%

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.3% … Expected 1.8% … Previous -0.3%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – … Expected – … Previous 2.0%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
Expn -25.8 … Expected – … Previous -29.7

DATA ON YESTERDAY:-
————–
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn 2.61% … Expected 0.70% … Previous 1.31% …Actual 1.84%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 3.99 … Expected 5.00 … Previous 3.65 …Actual 5.49