The Dollar Index looks bullish towards 103.55-104 while above 102.50. The Euro has slipped below 1.09 but needs to break below 1.0875 to extend to 1.08-1.07. The USDJPY and EURJPY have a fair chance of declining to 148.50/148 and 161 in the near term while below 149.50 and 164. Aussie can test 0.66 while Pound could trade above 1.30. EURINR, below 92.50-92, looks bearish to 91.35-91.00. USDINR has now a revised range of 84.12-84.00/83.90 which can hold for some time while resistance near 84.12 holds. USDCNY can face interim resistance near 7.1240 below which a dip to 7.08/05 looks possible.

Dollar Index (103.208) looks stable above 103 for now. There could be some dip from 103.55-104 region in the near term to 102.50-102 before resuming the upmove towards 104/106 in the longer run. The overall view is bullish for a rise towards 106 in the coming weeks.

EURUSD (1.0889) has again slipped below 1.09. A decisive break below 1.0875 is needed for the pair to move down towards 1.08 else we may see trade between 1.0875-1.0950/1.10 for the very near term. The overall view remains bearish towards 1.08.

Dollar-Yen (149.08) and the EURJPY (162.34) are struggling to rise above 149.50 and 164 respectively and while below these levels, the pairs could remain ranged for some time with a possibility to decline slightly towards 148.50/148 and 161 respectively before attempting to rise back again in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.1176) could face interim resistance at 7.1240 which if holds can lead to an immediate dip towards 7.08/05 the coming sessions. Only a break above 7.1240 will make it further bullish in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6687) has been falling sharply in the last few sessions and has scope to test 0.66 before bouncing back from there while Pound (1.3072) is likely to remain stable above 1.30 just now with an eventual rise towards 1.31/32 possible in the medium term. A break below 1.30 will drag it lower towards 1.29.

USDINR (84.0425) has been coming off gradually while below 84.12. Overall, we expect the pair to trade within 84.12-84.00 region for a few sessions before declining to 83.90. A break above 84.12, if seen will trigger bullishness towards 84.20+ (looks less likely just now)

EURINR (91.5319) remains bearish towards 91.35-91.00 in the near term while it remains below 92.50-92.

The US Treasury yields have come down further. So, the resistances have held very well. A further fall from here will confirm the same and will indicate that the downtrend has resumed. More fall is on the cards. The German yields have come down. Supports are there near current levels which have to hold to avoid more fall and negate our bullish view. The ECB meeting tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck inside the narrow range. As mentioned yesterday the sideways consolidation can continue for some more time before a rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.03%) and the 30Yr (4.32%) yields have declined further. A fall below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) will confirm that the resistance 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) have held well. It will then drag the yields down to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr) and will keep the broader downtrend intact.

The German 10Yr (2.22%) and the 30Yr (2.51%) yields have come down. They have to sustain above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) to keep the bullish view alive for a rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 2% (10Yr) and 2.3% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7684%) is still stuck inside the narrow 6.75%-6.8% range within the broad 6.7%- 6.85% range. The broader view is bullish to break 6.85% and rise to 7% over the medium term.

Most major indices are negative. The Dow Jones failed to break through resistance at 43200, declining to 42700, and now appears bearish, with potential to test the support level near 42600/500. The DAX also closed lower, but as long as it remains above 19100/19000, a rise towards 19,800-20000 is still possible. The Nifty continues to struggle to break above 25,200. A move past 25200 is necessary to mitigate downside risk; failure to hold above 25000 could lead to a further drop to 24,750. The Nikkei, after failing to sustain above 40,000 in the previous session, sharply declined to 39000. A break below this level could extend losses to 38000. Shanghai is currently holding above the key support level of 3,180. As long as this support holds, the index is likely to trade within the 3200/3180 to 3300 range.
The corrective fall from the 43200-43300 region is happening on the Dow (42740.42, -0.75%) as expected. The Dow made a high of 43277 and has come down sharply. Support is in the 42600-42500 which can hold and keep the bullish view intact of seeing 44000 on the upside.

DAX (19486.19, -0.11%) has come down slightly. But while above the 19100-19000 support zone, the bullish view will remain intact for a rise to 19800-20000.

Nifty (25,057.35, -0.28%) is stuck between 24900 and 25250 for about a week now. A strong break above 25250 is needed to boost the momentum for a rise to 25500-25700. In case it breaks below 24900, a fall to 24800-24750 can be seen and then a bounce is possible. Stay out and watch.

Nikkei (39093.46, -2.05%) has fallen below 40000 and is currently holding above 39000. There is potential for the decline to extend further towards 38600-38000. After that, a rebound towards 40,000 and higher may occur. Watch price action near 39000 in the next few sessions.

Shanghai (3222.99, +0.68%) has dipped towards the lower end of the 3200/3180-3300 range and can continue so before moving higher to 3400 in the medium term. Only a confirmed break below 3180 would negate the rise towards 3400 and pull the index lower to 3050.

Crude prices fell sharply due to lower demand estimates by OPEC and easing war scenario between Iran and Israel. The prices can extend fall to 70 on Brent and 65 on WTI in the near term. Gold may remain range bound between 2700-2620 for some time. Silver has risen slightly and can target 32.5-33.0 in the upcoming sessions. Copper and Natural Gas look bearish towards 4.30-4.35 and 2.40-2.35 respectively for the near term.

Brent ($ 74.41) broke it’s immediate support at 75 and tested a low of 73.34 as Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure. While below 75 it can fall further towards its immediate support at 71/70 in the near term and trade between 70-81 for some time. A further break below 70 if seen, can be limited to 68 on the downside. Only a sustained break below 68 would turn out bearish for Brent towards 65-60 or even lower in the longer run.

WTI ($ 70.79) has broken below its immediate support at 71 and fell to a low of 69.71 as OPEC has reduced its forward demand estimates. It can fall further towards its interim support near 68/65 in the near term. Thereafter, if the support holds WTI can bounce back towards 72-75 and range between 75-65 for the medium term. Else a sustained break below 65 would confirm further bearishness towards 60 in the upcoming weeks.

Gold (2684.20) has risen slightly. The range of 2700-2620 can sustain for some time until a breakout on either side takes place.

Silver (31.81) tested 30.95 and rose above 31.5 as expected. It can extend the rise towards 32.5-33.0 in the near term.

Copper (4.3525) has broken sharply below 4.4 and fell to 4.3295. While below 4.4 it can continue to fall towards 4.30-4.25 in the near term. A further break below 4.25 can take it further down towards 4.10-4.05. Immediate upside could be limited to 4.45/4.5 in case of any corrective rise, if seen.

Natural Gas (2.4870) bounced back above 2.5110 contrary to our expectations of seeing a further fall towards 2.4. Our view remains biased to see a fall towards crucial support near 2.40-2.35 in the near term before a bounce back to 2.6-2.8 or higher to 2.9 takes place eventually.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 2.1% … Expected 1.9% … Previous 2.3%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
Expn -25.8 … Expected – … Previous -29.7

DATA ON YESTERDAY:
—————
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.0% … Expected 4.1% … Previous 4.1% …Actual 4.0%

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.3% … Expected 1.8% … Previous -0.5% …Actual 1.8%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – … Expected – … Previous 2.0%