The Dollar Index failed to sustain its rise past 104.50 and declined a bit from there. US Case Schiller and Consumer Confidence scheduled today might bring some volatility to see whether the index will extend the fall or test 105-105.50 initially before coming down towards 103-102.50. Euro, Pound and EURINR can trade within the respective ranges of 1.0775-1.0850/09, 1.2900-1.3150 and 90.50/90-91.50 in the near term. The expected rise in USDJPY and EURJPY to 155 and 168 cannot be fully ruled out until a strong break below current levels is seen. Aussie could be headed towards 0.65, while below 0.66. USDCNY looks a bit uncertain for now but has room on the upside towards 7.1436 and 7.1751. Failure to sustain above current levels can drag it down towards 7.10 or even lower. USDINR is likely to remain ranged between 84.00 and 84.12 for the week.

Dollar Index (104.505) could not sustain its rise past 104.50 and started coming off from the high of 104.57 itself negating the immediate possibility of 105-105.50 mentioned in yesterday’s edition. Watch data releases on the US Case Schiller and Consumer Confidence scheduled today. Overall, the view remains bearish below 105-105.50 for a fall towards 103-102.50. A re-attempt to rise back sharply above 104.50 will reinforce our upper targets.

EURUSD (1.0814) was expected to test support around 1.0770/50 before rising back but instead, it reversed from the level of 1.781 itself. An immediate range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09 can hold for some time.

Dollar-Yen (152.89) and EURJPY (165.40) have declined from the highs of 153.88 and 166.07 respectively. The fall to 150-148 and 164-162 (EURJPY) can only come into the picture if the current dip sustains. Else, a rise back towards 154-155 and 168 respectively cannot be fully ruled out. Watch price action to see if the current dip holds in the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1326) witnessed a high of 7.1346 yesterday. Another meeting on stimulus measures is set between 4th to 8th Nov which might lay the roadmap of where the Yuan might be headed. Until further updates on the measure, the outlook is likely to remain uncertain. We retain our upside targets of 7.1436 and 7.1751 while above 7.13. At the same time failure to sustain above current levels can drag it towards 7.10 or even lower in the near term.

Aussie (0.6582) continues to trade below 0.66 and could have scope to fall towards 0.65 in the near term if it does not bounce back immediately above 0.66. Watch price action closely near current levels to see if the fall sustains from here.

Pound (1.2973) continues to remain stable within its range of 1.2900-1.3150 which can persist for a while. Thereafter, a decisive break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (84.0750) traded flat yesterday within a narrow 2.75 paise range of 84.06-84.0875. Overall, the range of 84.00-84.12 can hold for the current week as well.

EURINR (90.9419) is rising higher within the immediate range of 90.50/90-91.50 which can hold in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain higher but stable. The Treasury yields have room to rise further from here to test their resistance. After that the broader downtrend can resume. The German yields remain bullish and can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has risen, breaking its range on the upside as expected. The broader bullish view remains intact. The 10Yr GoI can rise further.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) and the 30Yr (4.51%) yields remain higher but stable. While above 4.2%, the 10Yr can rise to 4.4%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.6% while it sustains above 4.5%. Thereafter the yields can resume their broader downtrend.

The German 10Yr (2.28%) and the 30Yr (2.59%) yields continue to remain stable. The outlook is bullish to see a rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) while above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8603%) has risen above 6.85%. It can now test 6.9%. A range of 6.85%-6.9% is possible now for some time before we see a rise to 7% eventually.

Global equity indices closed higher. The Dow Jones and DAX have sustained above 42000 and 19400, respectively, and advanced above 42300 and 19500. To sustain the upward momentum, further gains beyond 42600 for the Dow and 19600 for the DAX would be needed to reach targets around 43000 and 19800-20000. Nifty saw a relief rally, breaking above 24100; a follow-through rise past 24600 is required to mitigate the fall towards 24000 or lower. Nikkei has risen and sustained above 38500 and looks bullish towards 39500-40000. Shanghai extended higher to 3340 before easing off and is holding yesterday’s mentioned range of 3250-3350 so far.

The Dow (42387.57, +0.65%) is managing to hold above 42000. We expect the downside to be limited to 41800 and the bullish view of seeing a rise to 44000 to remain intact. A strong rise above 42600 can boost the momentum.

DAX (19531.62, +0.35%) has been range bound between 19300 and 19600. The bias is bullish to break 19600 and rise to 19800-20000 going forward.

Nifty (24,339.15, +0.65%) witnessed a relief rally as expected. 24500-24600 can cap the immediate upside. We expect the Nifty to come down again to 24000 and lower in the coming days.

Nikkei (38822.35, +0.57%) has extended gains above 38500 and the outlook remains positive for the index to move higher towards 39500-40000.

Shanghai (3314.9990, -0.22%) is holding the range of 3350-3250 and could continue so for a few more sessions with the potential to move higher towards 3400 eventually.

Crude prices fell sharply below their immediate support levels after Israel’s attack avoided Iranian crude oil facilities. They can now fall further towards their interim support levels of 68 on Brent and 65 on WTI for the near term. Gold and Silver can target 2780-2800 and 35.0-35.5 respectively in the near term. Copper can trade within the narrow range of 4.4-4.3. Natural Gas can fall back to 2.5-2.2 while below 3.

Brent ($ 71.64) broke below its immediate support at 72 after Israel’s attack on Iranian missile sites avoided crude and nuclear facilities. While below 72 it can extend the fall towards 68 in the near term. From there it can bounce back and rise towards 74-75 in the medium term.

WTI ($ 67.65) broke below its immediate support at 68. While below 68, it can fall further towards its interim support near 65. Thereafter, if 65 holds it can bounce back from there and head up towards 70-72.

Gold $ 2768.10) is inching up slowly and can rise towards the mentioned levels of 2780-2800 in the near term.

Silver (34.22) is heading up as expected. It can target 35.0-35.5 on the higher side while above its immediate support at 33.5.

Copper (4.3690) can range between 4.4-4.3 for some time.

Natural Gas (2.8410) plunged to a low of 2.80 on warmer-than-normal weather forecasts for the US. While below 3 it can decline further to 2.5-2.2 in the upcoming sessions.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.6% … Previous 5.9%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 96.2 … Expected 99.2 … Previous 98.7

DATA ON YESTERDAY:
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No major data released yesterday.