The Dollar Index tested 104.636 on stronger US Case Schiller and Consumer Confidence data but came off thereafter. Only a sustained rise past 104.50 can take it higher towards 105-105.50. Overall, the view remains bearish towards 103.00-102.50. Euro, Pound and EURINR have risen well within the respective ranges of 1.0775-1.0850/09, 1.2900-1.3150 and 90.50/90-91.50 which can hold in the near term. The expected rise in USDJPY and EURJPY to 155 and 168 cannot be fully ruled out until a strong break below current levels is seen. Aussie can fall towards 0.65 if the ongoing fall continues further. USDCNY tested our initial target around 7.1436 before coming down. Until further clarity in the view, the target on the upside remains at 7.1751 while a fall if seen can drag it towards 7.10 or even lower. USDINR, above 84.06 can rise towards 84.10/12. Watch out for the US ADP Employment and US GDP data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.261) tested 104.636 yesterday on stronger US Case Schiller and Consumer Confidence data release at -0.8% (-1.1%) and 108.7 (96.20) before coming down. The index needs to sustain its rise past 104.50 to test 105-105.50. Else, the overall outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 103-102.50. Watch US ADP Employment and US GDP release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0818) has risen well from yesterday’s low of 1.0768. Currently, it is rising higher within its immediate range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09 which can persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (153.36) and EURJPY (165.91) tested 153.86 and 166 respectively due to Dollar strength. As we mentioned previously, a rise back to 154-155 and 168 respectively cannot be fully ruled out until a sharp fall is seen.

USDCNY (7.1339) had risen to 7.1424, near our initial target of 7.1436 before cooling down. Until further directional clarity, we are keeping our targets intact of testing 7.1751 on the upside and 7.10 or even lower if it fails to sustain above current levels.

Aussie (0.6554) has been coming off in line with our view and if the fall continues, a test to 0.65 looks likely to happen in the near term.

Pound (1.3008) is slowly inching higher within its range of 1.2900-1.3150 which can persist for a while. Thereafter, a decisive break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (84.0750) remained muted yesterday as well. While above 84.06, it is likely to bounce higher towards 84.10/12. Overall, the range of 84.00-84.12 can hold for the rest of the week.

EURINR (90.9483) continues to remain volatile within the immediate range of 90.50/90-91.50 which can hold in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. But broadly the yields are likely to rise further from here before resuming their downtrend. The US PCE (2.37% (YoY) in September) data release tomorrow will be important. A low PCE number can drag the yields lower. The German yields have risen further and are keeping intact our bullish view. There is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. Outlook is bullish and the yields can rise further from here.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.49%) yields have dipped slightly. The 10Yr can rise to 4.4% while it sustains above 4.2%. The 30Yr on the other hand needs to break 4.5% decisively to see a rise to 4.6%. We expect the broader downtrend to resume after this rise.

The German 10Yr (2.34%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) yields continue to move up. The bullish view remains intact. The yields are heading up towards 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) as expected. Support is at 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8530%) has risen back above 6.85% after an intraday dip to 6.8361%. View remains bullish. 6.9% can be tested initially. A beak above it will open the doors to see 7% on the upside.

Dow Jones failed to rise past 42500 and closed lower. As long as it stays above 42000–41800, the outlook remains positive for the index to move higher towards 43500–44000. DAX failed to sustain above 19600 and keeps an immediate range of 19300-19600 intact. A break above 19600 will eventually bring in a rise towards 19800-20000. The Nifty initially declined to a low of 24140.85 before recovering to close above 24400. Downside risks remain intact for a decline towards 24000 while below 24600. The Nikkei has held steady above 39000, maintaining a bullish outlook towards 40000. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Index has dipped below 3300 and continues to trade within the 3250-3350 range.

The Dow (42233.05, -0.36%) is stuck inside the 42000-42600 range. While above the 42000-41800 support zone, the bias is bullish to break 42600 and rise to 43500-44000 in the coming weeks.

DAX (19478.07, -0.27%) broke 19600 but failed to sustain. That keeps the current 19300-19600 range intact. We retain our bullish bias to see a sustained break above 19600 and a rise to 19800-20000 eventually.

Nifty (24,466.85, +0.03%) has risen back from the low of 24141. The trend is down while below 24600 to see 24000 and lower levels. But need to watch carefully as the Nifty is getting bought below 24200 over the last couple of days. That leaves a slight chance of getting a rise past 24600 contrary to our expectation.

Nikkei (39390.49,+1.25%) has risen well above 39000, maintaining a positive bias toward an upmove to 40,000. A break above 40000 would set the stage for a potential target of 42000.

Shanghai (3282.2460, -0.08%) continues to fluctuate within the 3350-3250 range, likely holding this range for the week. Thereafter, a breakout above 3350 towards 3400-3700 could follow, as China is reportedly considering approval next week for issuing over 10 trillion yuan in additional debt over the coming years to stimulate its fragile economy.

Crude prices continue to fall and can target interim support levels in the near term. Gold and Silver have risen, Gold can have a small correction to 2750 before continuing its uptrend, while Silver can march further higher towards 35.0-35.5. Copper can remain ranged for upcoming sessions before breaking higher towards 4.5-4.6. Natural gas can target 2.5-2.2 on the downside while below 3.

Brent ($ 71.38) continues its downtrend and can target 68 on the downside for the near term. Thereafter, interim support at 68 can hold and push it back towards 74-75 in the medium term.

WTI ($ 67.48) remains weaker below 68. Our view remains intact to see a fall towards 65 in the near term. From there it can bounce back and head up towards 70-72.

Gold $ 2793.90) has risen above 2780 in line with our expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen near 2800 which if holds, a corrective fall to 2760-2750 can take place in the near term before continuing its uptrend eventually. Alternatively, if it breaks above 2800 then it would be bullish for Gold towards 2900, but this seems less likely for now.

Silver (34.56) rose sharply to a high of 33.73 yesterday. It can continue to rise towards earlier mentioned targets of 35.0-35.5 in the upcoming sessions.

Copper (4.37510) saw an initial break above 4.4 and rose to a high of 4.43 but fell from there to close lower at 4.36 yesterday. It can trade within a range of 4.43-4.30 for a few more sessions before surging towards 4.5-4.6.

Natural Gas (2.8920) fell to a low of 2.79 but bounced back from there to close at 2.85 yesterday. While below 3, near term view remains bearish towards 2.5-2.2.

0:30 06:00 AU CPI
… Exp 3.0% … Expected 2.3% … Previous 3.8%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp – … Expected 96.4 … Previous 96.2

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 101.0K … Previous 143.0K

12:30 18:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 3.0% … Previous 3.0%

DATA ON YESTERDAY:
—————–
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.4%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.6% … Previous 5.9% …Actual 5.2%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 96.2 … Expected 99.2 … Previous 99.2 …Actual 108.7