The Dollar Index remains volatile amid the speculations across markets on the US Elections. The Index can remain volatile within 105-103 in the near term. Euro on the other hand is nearing the upper end of its range of 1.0775-1.0850/09, a rise past which will be needed to become bullish further. EURINR has risen past 91.50 but needs to sustain above it to head towards 92-93, else can fall back within 90-50-91.50 region again. The Pound is trading higher within its range of 1.2900-1.3150. The USDJPY has been coming off and EURJPY remains stable above the support around 165. Overall, the downside is expected to be limited to 150-148 (USDJPY) and 164-162 (EURJPY). Aussie seems to have risen well and above 0.66, it has a fair chance of testing 0.67. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.1450-7.11 range. USDINR, if sustained above 84.06 can rise towards 84.12/15.

The Dollar Index (103.768), on Friday tested 103.679 on lower than expected US NFP data release at 12K (111K) but then digested it amid speculations on the US Elections. The fall in Index today can be linked to the poll which showed Kamala Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa. The index is likely to remain volatile within 105-103 region in the near term ahead of the polls speculations on the results.

EURUSD (1.0887), on Friday tested 1.0905 before coming down. It is rising back again on Dollar weakness but a sustained break past 1.09 will be needed to become further bullish. Until then, its immediate range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09 can hold for a while.

Dollar-Yen (151.91) has been coming off amid the volatility in the Dollar while EURJPY (165.44) on the other hand seems to be holding well above the support around 165. Near-term supports can be seen around 150-148 (USDJPY) and 164-162 (EURJPY) which suggests a limited downside for both the pairs and that they can bounce back higher either from current levels or upon testing the supports in the near term.

USDCNY (7.111) is trading near the lower end of its broad range of 7.1450-7.1100. If the Dollar weakens further and any updates in the meeting on stimulus measures held between 4th Nov—8th Nov favour Yuan, then it can slip below 7.10 to test 7.05-7.00 in the near term.

The fall in Aussie (0.6604) seems to be halted around the level of 0.6536 for now. The pair, if sustains the current rise, can extend it further to 0.67 in the coming sessions. Overall, the downside could be limited to 0.65 for now.

Pound (1.2979) tested a low of 1.2843 on 31-Oct but seems to have recovered well from there. Currently, it is trading higher within the range of 1.2900-1.3150. Until a decisive break on either side is seen, the range is likely to remain intact.

USDINR (84.0470), on the NDF is trading lower below our mentioned support near 84.06. On the onshore markets, while it sustains above 84.06, our view remains intact to see a rise towards 83.12/15 in the coming weeks. Note, RBI might remain active to dampen any volatility in the Rupee due to US Elections or global movements this week.

EURINR (91.5843) has indeed surged past 91.50 and now while the rise sustains, a test of 92-93 could happen. At the same time, failure to sustain above 91.50 can bring it back within its immediate range of 90.50/90-91.50.

The US Treasury yields have risen and come close to their resistance. We expect the yields to reverse lower after testing the resistance and resume their broader downtrend going forward. The US Presidential Elections tomorrow and the Fed meeting outcome on Thursday are very important events to watch this week. The German yields sustain higher. Outlook still remains bullish and an extended rise from here looks likely. The 10Yr GoI has risen back. The broader uptrend is intact and the yield can go up gradually.

The US 10Yr (4.38%) and 30Yr (4.58%) yields have risen and come close to our expected resistance levels of 4.4% and 4.6% respectively. We expect the resistances to hold and the yields to reverse lower towards yields to reverse lower towards 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) hovers around their intermediate resistance. A further rise from here can see an extended rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) from here. Price action in the next few days will need a close watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8469%) is bouncing back. It can test 6.875% while it sustains above 6.83%. The broader picture is bullish to see 6.9%-7% on the upside while above 6.8%.

The Dow Jones closed above 42200, overcoming weak employment data. To extend the upward momentum, it will need to sustain support at 42000–41700 and break above 42600 to see a potential rise towards 44000. DAX tested and held its key support level of 19000 and rebounded to trade above 19250, keeping our bullish view intact for a rise to 19800–20000. Nifty sustained above 24200 during the Diwali Muhrat trading on Friday, inching higher. However, a push above 24500 is needed to gather momentum for a stronger move upward. Till then the view remains bearish for a fall towards 24000 or lower. The Nikkei failed to hold above 39500, falling 2.63% following a lower-than-expected PMI reading (49.2 for October vs. 49.7 in September). The index may experience further downside towards support near 37,700. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite remains in a sideways consolidation, holding steady within the 3250–3350 range.

The Dow (42,052.19, +0.69%) has risen back from the low of 41704 last week. A strong follow-through rise from here and a break above 42600 is needed to bring back the bullish momentum. Else there is a danger of seeing a fall to 41000 first before our expected rise to 44000 happens.

DAX (19254.97, +0.93%) is rising back after testing 19000 as expected. This keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 19800-20000 on the upside.

Nifty (24,304.35, +0.41%) remains stuck and unclear between 24000 and 24500. Need to wait for a breakout of this range to get clarity. The current trend is down and that keeps alive the danger of breaking below 24000. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (38053.60,-2.63%) is closed today and will resume trading tomorrow. It has room to see fall and test the support of 37700. Thereafter, price action around 37700 would be important to watch to see whether support holds and produces bounces towards 38500 or trembles towards 37000.

Shanghai (3278.3122, +0.20%) trades within the range of 3250-3350 and can attempt to move higher towards 3300.

Crude prices can trade sideways for the near term as interim resistances can hold on Brent (near 75) and WTI (71.75/72). Gold and Silver have fallen sharply. Gold has little room for a fall to 2700 before a rise to 2800/2850 is seen eventually, while Silver has support near current levels which can produce a rise to 33.5-34.0 in the near term. Copper looks ranged between 4.43-4.30 for the near term. Natural Gas looks bearish towards 2.4 for the near term.

Brent ($ 74.12) saw a high of 74.94 on Friday. While below immediate resistance at 75, a sideways range of 75-72/70 can hold for the near term. Thereafter, it will have to break past 75 to rally towards higher resistance near 78. For now, watch price action while below 75.

WTI ($ 70.52) tested a high of 71.45 before falling back to close at 69.49 on Friday. While it has risen slightly today, it can face interim resistance near 71.75-72.00 which can drag it back towards 69/68. A rise past 72 will be needed for a rally towards upper resistance near 75. Watch price action near 71.75-72 for the near term.

Gold $ 2746.30) fell to 2750 in line with our expectations. It is currently trading below 2750 and can extend towards its immediate support near 2700 before a bounce back to 2800/2850 is seen eventually.

Silver (32.60) broke sharply below 33.5 and fell to its trend support near 32.5 contrary to our expectation. While the support holds, a bounce back to 33.5-34.0 can be seen in the near term.

Copper (4.3865) continues to fluctuate between the 4.43-4.30 range. It can trade within this range for some more time before a rise to 4.5-4.6 takes place.

Natural Gas (2.5920) dipped to 2.66 on Friday in line with our expectations. Today it opened lower with a gap down at 2.56. A fall towards 2.4 can be seen in the near term as bears continue to look strong.

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…kshitij expn 57.4 …Expected 57.4 …Previous 56.5 –

10:00 15:30 EU PMI
…Expected 45.9 …Previous 45.9

FRIDAY’S DATA:-
————–
JP PMI
Expn 49.3 …EXpected 49.0 …Previous 49.7…Actual 49.2

AU PPI
…Previous 1.0% …Actual 0.9%

CN PMI
Expn 50.1…Expected 49.7…Previous 49.3…Actual 50.3

CH CPI
Expn 0.7…Expected 0.0…Previous 0.8…Actual 0.7

CH PMI
Expn 48.0…Expected 49.5…Previous 49.9 …Actual 50.1

UK PMI
Expn 52.5…Expected 50.3 …Previous 51.5 …Actual 49.9 –

US NFP
Expn 148 K …Expected 111K …Previous 223 K …Actual 12 K

US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.1% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 4.1% …Actual 4.1 %

US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.4

US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3 …ACtual 0.4

CA PMI
…Previous 50.4 … Actual 51.1

US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 47.2…Expected 47.5…Previous 47.2…Actual 46.5