The Dollar Index remains volatile amid the speculations across markets on the US Elections. We may expect fluctuation within the 105-103 range in the near term. Euro failed to hold above 1.09 and has dipped instead. A range of 1.09-1.0775 can hold for some more time till we get some directional clarity by end of the week. USDJPY and EURJPY look stable above 152 and 165 respectively with downside limited in the near term. USDCNY needs to sustain above 7.11 to move up towards 7.14/15 else can come down below 7.10 soon. Aussie can hold above 0.65 to slowly move back towards 0.66/67 while Pound is holding well within the range of 1.2900-1.3150. USDINR needs to fall back immediately below 84.10 to avoid a rally to 84.15/20. EURINR needs to sustain above 91.50 to head towards 92-93 in the near term else can dip back towards 90.50.

The Dollar Index (103.891) tested a low of 103.576 yesterday on account of possible unwinding of the Trump trade as the market speculates Republicans to sweep the elections. As mentioned previously, the index is likely to remain volatile within 105-103 region in the near term ahead of the polls speculations on the results during the day.

EURUSD (1.0878) failed in its attempt to sustain its rise past 1.09 and started coming off from the high of 1.0914. Only a sustained rise past 1.09 can take it 1.10-1.1050 in the near term. Else, failure to do so can keep the range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09 intact for a while.

Dollar-Yen (152.17) EURJPY (165.44) look stable above 152 and 165 respectively. Near-term supports can be seen around 150-148 (USDJPY) and 164-162 (EURJPY) which suggests a limited downside for both the pairs and that they can bounce back higher either from current levels or upon testing the supports in the near term.

USDCNY (7.111) slipped sharply below 7.10 to the low of 7.0863 on Dollar weakness. Currently, it has recovered well but still, a rise past 7.11 will be needed to bring the range of 7.1450-7.1100 back into the picture. Else, while below 7.11, the pair could be vulnerable to extend the fall to 7.05-7.00 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6588) started coming off from the high of 0.6619. The RBA meeting is scheduled wherein the central bank is expected to keep the rates steady at 4.35%. Overall, the downside could be limited to 0.65 for now. On the upside rise past 0.66 can take it higher to 0.67.

Pound (1.2955) is holding well within its range of 1.2900-1.3150. BOE meeting is scheduled on 07-Nov, possibly until then the range can remain intact. In the meeting the central bank is expected to cut the interest rates by 25 bps, which can give further directional clarity for the pair.

USDINR (84.1150) rose to test 84.12 yesterday after closing at the day’s high. There is scope for a test of 84.15/20 if the pair does not fall back below 84.10 today. Although the RBI may intervene to dampen any spur in volatility, we may expect a slight shift in the trading range possibly to the upper side (from the current 84.0-84.12 range)

EURINR (91.5303) has dipped slightly from the level of 91.7928. The pair needs to sustain above 91.50 to head towards 92-93 in the near term. Else, failure to do so can bring it back within its immediate range of 90.50/90-91.50.

The US Treasury yields have reversed lower from their resistances as expected. The yields can now fall further in the coming days and keep the broader downtrend intact. The US Presidential Election tonight will be important to watch. After this the Fed meeting outcome is due on Thursday. The German yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside. There is room for the yields to rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating in a range. The outlook is bullish. We expect the range to be broken on the upside and the yields to rise going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.49%) yields have reversed lower as expected from near 4.4% and 4.6% respectively. That keeps intact our view of the broader downtrend resuming towards 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.2% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The German 10Yr (2.39%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) have dipped slightly. While above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) the outlook is bullish to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8309%) is oscillating around 6.85% for some time now. 6.8%-6.88% can be the trading range for now. The bias is bullish to break 6.88% and rise to 6.9% and 7% in the coming weeks.

The Dow Jones failed to maintain levels above 42000, retreating to the support of 41700, contrary to our bullish expectations. Now, the risk of slipping below the support of 41700 to 41500-41000 cannot be ruled out. Similarly, the DAX has slipped below 19200 and is now approaching its support at 19000. As long as this support holds, the outlook remains bullish, with potential gains toward 19800-20000 else we may have to look for lower targets of 18700/500. Meanwhile, the Nifty index broke below 24000 to a low of 23816 before stabilizing. The price action around 23700 will be pivotal in determining its next direction. Conversely, the Nikkei held above 38000, rising to 38500 and displaying bullish momentum. It may advance toward 39500 if support above 38000 persists. The Shanghai index, as anticipated, has climbed past 3300 and now targets the upper resistance near 3350.

The Dow (41794.60, -0.61%) fell to a low of 41647.30 and has closed just below 41800. A fall to 41000 looks likely now. Our view of seeing a rise to 44000 from 42000-41800 has gone wrong. We prefer to exit the longs and take a relook at around 41000.

DAX (19147.85, -0.56%) is struggling to breach 19300 over the last few days. It has to sustain above 19000 to keep intact our bullish view of seeing 19800-20000 on the upside. A break below 19000 can take it down to 18700 and even 18500.

Nifty (23995.35, -1.27%) tumbled to a low of 23816 and has bounced to close just below 23000. It can fall to 23500-23400. The chances of seeing 23000 also cannot be ruled out. But after this fall the uptrend can resume.

Nikkei (38474.61,+1.11%) needs to sustain and hold above 38500 to witness an upside move towards 39500-40000. Otherwise, it will come down to 38000-37700.

Shanghai (3343.5328, +1.00%) has risen above 3300 and is attempting a break above 3350. A successful break above 3350 would bring the target of 3400 into the picture. Otherwise, it will crawl back into the range of 3350-3250.

Crude prices have recovered slightly after OPEC+ delayed production increases. While below the immediate resistance levels, our view remains intact to see a fall to 68 (WTI) and 70 (Brent) in the near term. Gold can fall to 2700 before a bounce back to 2800-2850 is seen, while Silver can rise towards 33.0-33.5 while above 32.5. Copper has broken the sideways range and could target 4.5-4.6 on the higher side. Natural Gas has risen sharply after the US forecasted a colder temperature. It can extend the rise further towards 2.9-3.0 in the upcoming sessions.

Brent ($ 75.22) rose to 75.40 yesterday after OPEC+ agreed to delay their planned oil output rollout by one month, until end of December. A sustained break above 75 is needed to see higher levels of 77-78, else can fall back to 72-70 and trade between a sideways range of 75-70 for some time.

WTI ($ 71.59) has risen slightly to 71.81. While the resistance at 72 holds a fall back to 69/68 can be seen in the near term. Only a sustained break above 72 would take it higher towards 74/75.

Gold $ 2736.70) is inching down below 2750. It can test 2700 on the downside before a bounce to 2800-2850 is seen.

Silver (32.49) is hovering near its immediate support at 32.5. While the support holds a bounce back to 33.0-33.5 can be seen in the near term.

Copper (4.4480) has broken above the upper-end of the sideways range and rose sharply to 4.45 yesterday. It can gradually rise towards 4.5-4.6 in the upcoming weeks while above 4.3.

Natural Gas (2.7850) has surged sharply from 2.51 to 2.79 after forecasts for colder US temperatures. While above 2.5/2.6 it can rise further towards 2.9-3.0 in the near term.

3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expected 4.35 …Previous 4.35

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expected -75.3 $ Bln …Previous -70.4 $ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.4 …Expected 57.4 …Previous 56.5 …Actual 57.5

EU PMI
Expn 45.9…Expected 45.0 …Previous 46.0