The early polls which showed Trump taking the lead led to the strengthening of the Dollar against most of the currencies. The index continues to remain volatile within the 105-103 range. Euro and EURINR witnessed a sharp fall from the level of 1.0936 and 92 respectively. A range of 1.0900-1.0750 and 91.50-90.50 can hold for some time. USDJPY remains ranged within 150-155 and EURJPY, above 165 has a fair chance to test 167-167.50 on the upside. USDCNY, on a break past 7.1450 can target 7.1751 if sustained. Note, bearishness in the pair will only strike in if a break below 7.10 is seen. Aussie can test 0.65 if the fall extends further. Pound is nearing the lower end of its range of 1.3150-1.2900. USDINR might see a gap up opening in the on-shore markets today. There could be a scope to see a rise to 84.15/20 if it fails to break below 84.10.

The Dollar Index (104.253) observed a low of 103.373 yesterday but has recovered well from there. The early results of Trump leading have supported the rise. Until the final results are out, the index is likely to remain volatile within 105-103 region in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0815) witnessed a significant fall as the Dollar strengthened post early US election results. Only a sustained rise past 1.09 can take it 1.10-1.1050 in the near term. Else, for now, the range of 1.0900-1.0775/0750 can remain intact for a while.

Dollar-Yen (153.28) has bounced well from the low of 151.28, while EURJPY (165.67) continues to remain stable above 165. USDJPY will need to see a sharp rise past 155 to become bullish further, else while below it a range of 150-155 can persist in the near term. Similarly, EURJPY if sustains above 165, then it can possibly test 167-167.50 in the coming sessions. Overall, downside is expected to be limited to 150-148 (USDJPY) and 164-162 (EURJPY) respectively.

USDCNY (7.111) has recovered well from the yesterday’s low of 7.0990. It seems to be heading towards the upper end of the earlier-mentioned range of 7.1100-7.1450. Thereafter, if the rise continues, the next target could be around 7.1751. On the downside, bearishness will strike in towards 7.05-7.00 on a confirmed break below 7.10.

Aussie (0.6573) was expected to test 0.67 if a rise past 0.66 is seen. In actuality the rise got halted at 0.6645 itself. Currently, it has slipped below 0.66 and can get extended to the support around 0.65 region.

Pound (1.2943) is nearing the lower end of its range of 1.3150-1.2900. The BOE meeting is scheduled for 07-Nov,. Possibly until then the range can remain intact.

USDINR (84.1880), on the NDF has risen sharply after an initial dip to 84.05 seen yesterday evening. On the onshore markets, the pair tested 84.1250 and closed at 84.1125. We might see a gap up opening today and there could be scope for a test of 84.15/20 if the pair does not fall back below 84.10. We will have to remain cautious as RBI might intervene to dampen any spur in volatility.

EURINR (90.8002) tested our initial target of 92 before coming off sharply from there. Currently, it is back within its earlier range of 91.50-90.50. We need to see whether it holds or extends the fall further. Only a sustained rise past 91.50 can take it higher to 92-93 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back but may not sustain. Resistances are there to cap the upside. We expect the yields to fall and resume the broader downtrend going forward. The US Presidential Election results during the day and the US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can go up further from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck in a range. The bias is bullish to break the range on the upside and see a rise eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.34%) and 30Yr (4.52%) yields have risen back. But resistances at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) can cap the upside. We expect the downtrend to resume and the yields to fall towards 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.2% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The German 10Yr (2.42%) and the 30Yr (2.61%) have risen back. The bullish view is intact to see 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8308%) continues to remain within the 6.8%-6.88% range. We retain our bullish bias to see a breakout above 6.88% and a rise to 7%.

The Dow Jones index has risen above 42200 ahead of the U.S. election results, recovering from a recent dip below 41700. However, a further climb beyond 42300-42500 is needed to fully dispel downside risks to the 41000. DAX sustained above 19000 and has risen above 19200. The view remains bullish towards 19800-20000. The Nifty maintained above support near 23800 and has climbed past 24200; a break above 24600 is required to gain positive sentiments. As expected, Nikkei has risen above 39000 and is heading towards 39500-40000. Shanghai has risen above 3400 and while it sustains above 3400, a rise towards 3500 looks possible.

The Dow (42221.88, +1.02%) has risen back well. But resistance is seen at 42500. While below this, the outlook is negative to see a fall to 41000. Only a sustained break above 42500 will bring back the bullish view.

DAX (19256.27, +0.57%) is stuck between 19000 and 19300 for some time. While above 19000, the bias is positive to break 19300 and rise to 19800-20000. A break below 19000 will negate this bullish view and drag it down to 18700-18500.

Nifty (24213.30, +0.91%) has risen back well above 24000. But a strong rise above 24600 is needed to bring back the bullishness. While below 24600, the danger of the fall to 23500-23400 will still remain alive.

Nikkei (39341.61,+2.25%) is marching towards 39500-40000. Thereafter, price action around 40000 needs to be observed carefully to see whether index extends the rise above 40000 or turns down to 39000-38000. Alternatively, failure to sustain trade above 39000 in the next few sessions would lead to a fall to 38000-37700.

Shanghai (3406.4088, +0.55%) has climbed above 3400 in anticipation of an upcoming stimulus package announcement. As long as it holds above 3400, there is potential for a further rise toward 3500-3700. It’s worth noting that, following the stimulus announcement, we may see significant volatility with large gap-ups and gap-downs, as observed in past announcements.

Crude prices have risen slightly but can fall towards 70/68 (WTI) and 72/70 (Brent) while below their respective resistance levels. Gold and Silver are holding above their support levels; we expect a rise towards 2800 and 33.0-33.5 respectively in the near term. Copper and Natural Gas could target 4.5-4.6 and 2.8-3.0 respectively on the higher side.

Brent ($ 75.21) rose to a high of 76.24 before closing lower at 75.53 yesterday. A sustained break above 75/75.5 is needed to see a rise towards 77-78. Else a fall to 72-70 cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 71.74) tested a high of 72.67 yesterday but has fallen back from there to close at 71.99. While below 72 it can fall towards 69-68 and trade between 72-68 for some time.

Gold $ 2746.30) rose slightly to 2749 yesterday. Immediate support is coming near 2730-2720, while this holds, we expect a break above 2750 and a rise towards 2800 in the upcoming weeks.

Silver (32.46) is holding well above support at 32.5 and can rise towards 33.0-33.5 in the near term.

Copper (4.3955) continues to move up. It can target 4.5-4.6 in the upcoming sessions.

Natural Gas (2.6870) plunged to 2.65 after testing a high of 2.81 after warmer US weather forecasts. While above the 21-Day moving average support at 2.5, we expect a rise to 2.8-3.0 in the near term. But overall medium term trend is down while below 3.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – …Expected – …Previous -33.6

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 56.7 …Expected 57.9 …Previous 57.7

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expected 4.35 …Previous 4.35 …Actual 4.35

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expected -75.3 $ Bln …Previous -70.8 $ Bln …Actual -84.4 $ Bln