The Dollar strengthened against major currencies after the victory of the Republican Donald Trump in the US Presidential Elections. The index has immediate resistance around 105.50/60 below which it can move lower within its range of 150.50/60-103. Euro, if sustained above current levels, can head towards 1.08 or higher in the near term. EURINR found support around 90, above which a revised range of 90-92 can hold for some time. USDJPY is trading near the upper end of its range of 150155, while EURJPY is oscillating within 165-167 region. USDCNY has risen past our target of 7.1751 and the next target is coming around 7.22 but whether it will happen or not is uncertain. Stimulus measures policy scheduled tomorrow might shed some light on where the Yuan might be headed. Aussie tested 0.6512 before recovering from there. A broad range of 0.65-0.67 can hold in the near term. Pound had slipped below the lower end of its range of 1.3150-1.2900 but is currently back within it. BOE, in the meeting today is expected to cut the rates by 25 bps if so, the pair can come down. USDINR rose sharply to the high of 84.28 before cooling down a bit. RBI might be active today to sell the Dollars as a resistance is also coming around 84.35 below which RBI has room to push the pair back towards 84.10 in the coming sessions. Also watch out for the FOMC policy meeting scheduled today.

The Dollar Index (105.110) shoot up significantly yesterday after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. The Index tested the high of 105.44 before cooling down. Immediate resistance can be spotted around at 105.50-105.60 which suggests a limited upside for the Index. While the resistance holds, the Index is likely to move lower within its range of 105.50/60-103.00. Watch the FOMC meeting scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0726) slipped sharply below 1.0750 to the low of 1.0682 on Dollar strength. It has recovered well from the low and if sustained, can head towards 1.08 or higher in the coming sessions. Overall, the downside is expected to be limited to 1.06.

Dollar-Yen (154.40) is trading near the upper end of the previously mentioned range of 150-155 and EURJPY (165.61) is oscillating within 165-167 region. USDJPY will need to see a sharp rise past 155 to become further bullish, else the range can persist in the near term. Similarly, EURJPY needs a break on either side for further directional clarity. Overall, the downside is expected to be limited to 150-148 (USDJPY) and 164-162 (EURJPY) respectively.

USDCNY (7.1822) has exceeded our expected target of 7.1751. Despite the Dollar Index cooling down a bit, USDCNY continues to trade higher. If the rally extends further then the next target could be 7.22 but whether it will happen or Yuan will strengthen towards 7.15-7.10 will depend on the stimulus measures meeting on 08-Nov.

Aussie (0.6597), in line with our view of seeing a fall towards 0.65, tested a low of 0.6512 yesterday before recovering from there. If the rise persists, it can get extended to 0.6650-0.67. Overall, a broad range of 0.65-0.67 can hold in the near term.

Pound (1.2906) had slipped below the lower end of the range of 1.3150-1.2900 to the low of 1.2833. Currently, it is back within its range but the BOE meeting is scheduled today wherein it is expected to cut the rate by 25 bps. While it sustains above 1.29, the range can persist for some time. Only a confirmed break below 1.28 if seen, can make the outlook further bearish to 1.26 or lower.

USDINR (84.24) was expected to test 84.20 on the upside but in actual the pair tested 84.28. USDINR has resistance around 84.35 where the RBI could intervene to sell Dollars and push USDINR down towards Support near 84.10. Watch price action closely around the current levels up to 84.35.

EURINR (90.4361) fell sharply to the low of 90.1169 yesterday . The pair has support near 90 above which it is likely to move up towards 92 in the near term. Therein, a revised range of 90-92 can hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields have surged after the Presidential Election outcome. The Yields are poised near a key resistance. They have to reverse lower from here immediately in order to keep intact our view of seeing a fall back. A strong follow-through rise from here will prove that view wrong and take the yields further higher from here. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tonight will be key in deciding the path for the yields from here. The German yields remain higher. The outlook is bullish, and the yields have room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI retains its sideways range and can continue to do so for some more time. The bias is positive to get a bullish breakout of this range going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.59%) yields have surged back. The 10Yr has to sustain below 4.45% and reverse lower immediately to keep intact our view of seeing a fall to 4.2%-4%. A sustained rise above 4.45% will negate this view and take the yields up to 4.6%-4.8%. The 30Yr looks relatively more positive than the 10Yr to see a rise to 4.8% from here if it gets a sustained rise above 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.40%) remains stable while the 30Yr (2.65%) has risen well. Our bullish view remains intact for a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) before a reversal happens.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8322%) fell to a low of 6.8106% and then has risen back. That continues to keep intact the 6.8%-6.88% range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout above 6.88% and a rise to 7% eventually.

Dow Jones has welcomed President Donald Trump by surging above 43700 with resistance near 44000/44500 potentially limiting further gains in the short term. Market participants should cautiously monitor price action around the current levels to assess market direction. DAX initially rose to 19563 but then plummeted to the support of 19000. In India, the Nifty attempted to break past 24500 before closing just below that level. Further, a rise past 24600 is required to move higher to 25000 and beyond. As anticipated, Nikkei rose above 39500 to a high of 39884 before falling to the current level. While below 39500, a fall towards 38500-38000 looks possible. On the other hand, Shanghai failed to sustain above 3400. Currently, the index trades near 3400 but a sustained rise past 3400 is needed to bring 3500 into the picture, else we may expect a decline in the near term.

The Dow (43729.93, +3.57%) has surged above 43000 thereby bringing back our earlier bullish view of seeing 44000 on the upside. An extended rise to 44500 is also a possibility. But as the Dow enters the 44000-44500 region we will have to turn cautious for a reversal.
DAX (19039.31, -1.13%) has come down sharply from a high of 19563.97. It has to bounce back immediately from here to keep intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 19800-20000. A fall below 19000 will negate this bullish view and drag the index down to 18700-18500. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (24,484.05, +1.12%) has risen further. But a sustained rise above 24600 is needed to bring back the earlier bullishness to see 25000 and higher. While below 24600, Nifty can still fall back to 24000-23800 and keep alive the danger of seeing 23500-23400 on the downside. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (39321.82,-0.40%) has retreated from a high of 39884. A break above 39500 needed to drive it past 40000. Failure to achieve this may lead to a fall toward 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3393.1415, +0.23%) is trading near 3400 after testing support at 3350. A sustained move above 3400 could open the path to 3500; otherwise, it may retreat toward 3350 or even lower to 3300. With a stimulus announcement expected tomorrow, we may see significant volatility.

Most of the energy and metal prices have seen sharp movement as the Dollar surges after the Donald Trump victory. Crude prices can fall towards their immediate support levels of 71 (Brent) and 67 (WTI) in the near term and trade sideways for some time. Gold, Silver and Copper have plunged below their immediate support levels. Gold and Silver can test their interim support levels now before bouncing back higher towards 2750-2800 and 32-33 respectively while Copper needs to sustain below 4.3 to be bearish towards 4.2-4.1. Natural Gas remains bullish towards 2.9-3.0 in the near term.

Brent ($ 75.32) tested a low of 73.34 due to Dollar strength and a build in weekly EIA inventories but has recovered back to close at 74.92 yesterday. It needs to surpass 75.5-76 to see higher levels of 78-80. But for now, it can sustain below 76 and fall back to 72-71, giving a range of 76-71 for some time.

WTI ($ 71.96) saw a low of 69.76. Channel resistance can be seen near 72 and support near 67. While these levels hold, WTI can initially fall towards 68-67 and trade within a broad range of 72-67 for some time. A break above 72 if seen could be limited to 75-76.

Gold $ 2752.20) has broken sharply below its immediate support of 2700 contrary to our expectation and fell to a low of 2660.70 on Dollar strength. While below 2700 it can fall further towards its interim support near 2600. From there it can gradually bounce back towards 2750-2800.

Silver (31.13) plunged to a low of 30.94 contrary to our expectation of seeing a rise to 32-33. While below 32.5/32.0 a fall to its interim support at 30.0-29.5 can be seen in the near term. Thereafter it can bounce back from there and head towards 32-33.

Copper (4.2855) falls sharply below 4.3. We must see whether it will continue below 4.3 or not. If it holds below 4.3 then it could turn out bearish for copper towards 4.2-4.1. Wait and watch.

Natural Gas (2.7230) tested a high of 2.7980 yesterday as expected. It can continue to rise further towards 2.9-3.0 in the upcoming weeks.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Exp – …Expected 5.3A$ Bln …Previous 5.6A$ Bln

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp -0.3% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.2%

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
… Exp – …Expected 4.75% …Previous 5.00%

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
… Exp – …Expected 0-1-8 …Previous 0-1-8

19:00 00:30 US FOMC Meeting
… Exp <4.75% ...Expected <4.75% ...Previous <5.00% DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – …Expected – …Previous -33.6 …Actual -19.7

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 56.7 …Expected 58.3 …Previous 57.7 …Actual 58.5