While the Dollar Index holds above 106.50, the near term looks bullish towards 109-110. EURUSD on the other hand appears bearish towards 1.03-1.02 and any rise if seen can be limited to 1.055-1.060. EURINR has a scope to rise towards 89-89.50 above 88 . Aussie and Pound failed to sustain their rise and started falling again. The overall view remains bearish for both in the near term. USDCNY has finally risen past 7.25 and if sustained can head towards 7.27-7.30 in the coming sessions. The Dollar Yen is trading within its 155-152 region but overall, the view is bullish towards 157-158 in the near term. EURJPY appears bearish towards 160-158 in the coming sessions while below 164/162. USDINR fell sharply yesterday but has immediate support around 84.20 which if holds can take it back towards 84.35/40 in the near term. Watch out for the US Case Schiller, US New Home Sales, US Consumer Confidence data releases scheduled today.

U.S. President-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary who favors a weaker USD led the Dollar Index (107.272) to see a fall to the low of 106.58 before recovering back from there. While above 106.50-106.00, the overall view remains bullish towards 109-110 in the near term. Watch out for the US Case Schiller, US New Home Sales, US Consumer Confidence data release scheduled today.

The EURUSD (1.0485) initially rose to the high of 1.0530 yesterday on Dollar weakness before eventually coming down. The overall view continues to remain bearish towards 1.03-1.02 in the coming weeks. Any rise if seen from the current levels, could be short-lived to 1.055-1.060 for now.

Dollar-Yen (153.96) is slowly inching lower within its range of 155-152 which can hold in the near term. In the medium term, while it sustains above 153, a rise past 155 to 157-158 looks likely to happen.

EURJPY (161.04) has interim resistance around 162 and higher around 164 which suggests a limited upside. While the resistance holds, the overall outlook remains bearish towards 160-158 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2544) has indeed risen past 7.25 and now if sustained, it can extend the ongoing rise towards 7.27-7.30 in the near term. At the same time, failure to sustain its rise past 7.25 can mark this as a false break and can lead to a corrective fall towards 7.20/18. Watch price action around 7.25/26 for further directional clarity.

Aussie (0.6476) extended the fall to the low of 0.6434 before recovering a bit from there. The pair needs to see a strong rise past 0.655 to become further bullish to 0.67. Else it can be vulnerable to even test 0.635 on a confirmed break below 0.64.

Pound (1.2532) failed to sustain its rise and started coming off from the high of 1.2612 itself. If the fall continues further, interim support around 1.245 could be tested soon. Thereafter whether it bounces back again or extends the ongoing fall to 1.23 will have to be seen.

USDINR (84.2925) fell sharply to 84.24 yesterday after a gap down opening at 84.3750 possibly due to the central bank intervention to protect further Rupee depreciation. Immediate support is seen near 84.20 above which the pair may bounce back towards 84.30/40 in the near term.

EURINR (88.1963) can rise towards 89-89.50 in the upcoming sessions while it sustains above 88. Only a decisive break below 88 can drag it lower to 87-86 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. The resistance has held very well and the yields can now fall further in line with our expectation. The US PCE data release is due tomorrow. If the PCE shows an uptick like the CPI, that could support the yields to rise back again. We will have to wait and watch. The US PCE (YoY) is currently at 2.2% (October). The German yields have declined further. That negates our earlier bullish view. The yields can now fall more from here. The Indian 10Yr GoI is holding well above its intermediate support. It can rise to test the immediate resistance now. Bias is bullish to break the resistance eventually and rise going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.46%) yields have declined sharply. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or not.

The German 10Yr (2.21%) and the 30Yr (2.44%) yields are continuing to fall. While below 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) the yields can now fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr. Our earlier view of seeing a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) stands negated now.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8530%) dipped and oscillated around 6.85% yesterday. While above 6.83%, a rise to 6.87%-6.88% is possible in the near-term. Bias is bullish to break 6.88% and rise to 6.9% first and then to 7% eventually over the medium term.

The Dow Jones extended the rise to a record high of 44815 before easing a bit. However, we remain cautious as 45000 may cap the upside for the near term leading to a fall towards 42000/41000. DAX and Nifty also continue to move higher. DAX needs to breach 19600 to hit the target of 20000 while Nifty needs to see a follow-through rise in the next few sessions to hit 24500/24700 while it sustains trade above 24000. Nikkei, on the other hand, failed to sustain above 38500 and plunged and tested support of 38000 by marking a low of 38020 before recovering to the current level. While it holds above 38000, it’s likely to hold the range of 38000-39500. Shanghai is holding above 3250; an attempt to move higher towards 3350 looks possible.

The Dow (44736.57, +0.99%) has surged into the 44500-45000 resistance zone. We reiterate that 45000 can cap the upside and trigger a fall to 42000-41000 going forward. Need to be cautious rather than being bullish at the moment.

DAX (19405.20, +0.43%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact. A break above 19600 can take the index up to 20000.

Nifty (24221.90, 1.32%) opened with a wide gap-up as expected and sustained higher. Need to see if a strong follow-through rise is happening in the coming days to take the Nifty up to 24500-24700. Support is at 24000 which has to be broken to bring it under pressure again.

Nikkei (38260.38, -1.34%) failed to trade above 38500 and dipped to 38020 before recovering to current levels. The index is expected to remain range-bound, oscillating between 38,000 and 39500 in the near term.

Shanghai (3273.84, +0.31%) is currently holding above 3250. As long as this support remains intact, the index could rally towards 3350–3400. However, it needs a rise past 3300 to negate a downside risk of seeing a fall below 3250 towards 3150.

Crude prices plunged on the anticipation of a potential Israel-Lebanon cease-fire agreement. A further fall towards 71 (Brent) and 67 (WTI) can be seen in the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen but while the immediate support levels hold, a bounce towards 2650-2700 and 31.5-32.0 respectively looks likely in the upcoming sessions. Copper looks ranged between 4.20-4.05 for some time. Natural Gas has fallen but bias is bullish towards 4.6-4.8.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of a ceasefire agreement to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, However, they are yet to announce an agreement. This pulled down Brent ($ 72.90) sharply to 72.84 yesterday. While the fall sustains it can test 71 on the downside before a bounce back to 74-76 is seen.

WTI ($ 68.75) fell sharply to 68.74 yesterday. It can fall further towards 67 in the near term before a rise to 70-72 is seen.

Gold ($ 2628.50) plunged to a low of 2616.60 after Trump picked Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary, who is seen as a fiscal hawk and favors less government spending and more gradual tariffs. Immediate support is seen near 2600 above which, a bounce back towards 2650-2700 can take place in the near term.

Silver (30.26) fell to a low of 30.12. As long as the support at 30.20/50 holds, our view of seeing a rise to 31.5-32.0 remains intact for the near term.

Copper (4.0655) could hold within a range of 4.20-4.05 for the near term before an eventual rise to 4.3 is seen.

Natural Gas (3.4250) has fallen slightly but the outlook remains biased to see a rise towards 3.6-3.8 while above 3.2.

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 5.1% … Previous 5.2%

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 740K … Expected 724K … Previous 738K

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 110.6 … Expected 112.0 … Previous 108.7

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 86.7 … Expected 86.0 … Previous 86.5 …Actual 85.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp 84.3 … Expected 85.5 … Previous 85.7 …Actual 84.3

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp 86.6 … Expected 87.3 … Previous 87.3 …Actual 87.2