The Dollar Index is headed towards support around 105.75. While it holds, we retain our view of seeing a bounce back towards 107-108 in the coming sessions. Euro and EURINR are nearing the mentioned resistance around 1.06 and 89.50 respectively. Watch price action closely around these levels to see whether it holds or not. Aussie needs to see a rise past 0.6550 to become further bullish and Pound if sustained above 1.27, can test 1.2750/70 in the coming sessions. USDCNY has been coming off but if the Dollar Index rises back, then still there could be a scope to see a rise back towards 7.25. Else it could be vulnerable to test 7.20.18 on the downside. The Dollar Yen extended its fall to 149.85. Until a decisive break below 150 is seen, a rise to 154-155 cannot be fully ruled out. EURJPY is coming off in line with our view and can soon test 158-156, while below 164/162. USDINR can remain ranged between 84.50-84.40 in the near term.

The Dollar Index (105.893) is nearing the interim support around 105.75/50, above which our preferred view is to see a bounce back towards 107-108 in the coming sessions. Only if the index slips strongly below 105, we might have to revise our view.

EURUSD (1.0571) is headed towards interim resistance at 1.06. While it holds, we anticipate a corrective fall towards 1.05-1.04 in the coming sessions. At the same time, only if a sustained rise past 1.06 is seen, can take it higher to 1.07 in the near term. Watch price action closely around 1.06.

The Tokyo CPI jumped to the level of 2.6%. As a result Dollar-Yen (150.12) extended the fall to the low of 149.85 as the market speculated another rate hike in the Dec-24 meeting by BOJ. The pair will need to see a decisive break below 150 to become further bearish in the near term. Else while above 150, there is scope for it to rise back towards 154-155 in the coming week.

EURJPY (158.66) is coming off in line with our expectations and if the fall continues further, it can soon test our mentioned targets of 158-156 on the downside. Overall, the view remains bearish below resistances at 162 and 164.

USDCNY (7.2366) is moving in line with our less preferred view of seeing a fall towards 7.20-7.18. If the Dollar Index bounces back from 105.75, then still there could be some scope to see a rise back towards 7.25 in the USDCNY as well. Else, it would be vulnerable to test 7.20/18.

Aussie (0.6508) has risen well so far. It needs to see a rise past its channel resistance near 0.655 to become further bullish towards 0.67. Else, while below 0.655 the pair can either remain ranged within 0.640-0.655 region or can extend the fall towards 0.635.

Pound (1.2706) has indeed risen past 1.27 and now if sustained, can test 1.2750-1.2770 on the upside before possibly topping out. If the resistance around 1.2750 holds, a broad range of 1.2750/70-1.2450 can hold for a while.

USDINR (84.4730) tested the upper end of the range of 84.20-84.50 before closing at 84.49 yesterday. The pair will need to see a strong break past 84.50 to head towards 84.60. For now, we retain our view of seeing a narrow range of 84.50-84.40 to hold for some time.

EURINR (89.3046) is nearing the mentioned resistance around 89.50. While it holds, a fall back towards 88.50-88.00 is anticipated. Only a strong break past 89.50 can take it higher to 90. Watch price action closely around 89.50.

The US Treasury yields have dipped in the early Asian session today. The view of seeing more fall remains intact. Intermediate supports are there which will need a watch to see if it is halting the fall and triggering a bounce. The German yields are continuing to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI can come down towards the lower end of its broader range. That will delay the breakout and the rise that we have been expecting.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.43%) yields have dipped further and are coming down towards 4.2% and 4.4% respectively. The price action after this fall will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or the fall extending to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.12%) and the 30Yr (2.35%) yields continue to fall. Our bearish view of seeing a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8333%) tested 6.83% as expected. It looks like the yield can fall to 6.8% – the lower end of the broad 6.8%-6.88% range in the coming days. Our bullish view of seeing a rise to 6.9%-7% will get delayed now.

The Dow Jones was closed yesterday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. We keep intact our bearish outlook towards 43000 while below 45000. In Europe, the DAX has risen above 19400 but requires a decisive break above 19600 to set the stage for a rally towards 20000. The Nifty index has dropped below 24000 which now acts as a decent resistance. A break below 23800 could trigger a deeper decline toward the 23650 or lower. A bounce from 23800 and an eventual rise past 24000 is needed to rise in the medium term. The Nikkei continues to struggle, unable to breach 38500 and is trading lower. However, as long as support at 38000–37700 holds, the index is expected to trade within the broader range of 37,700–39,500 before potentially declining further toward 35,000. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite remains steady near 3,300. Sustaining above this level could drive a move higher toward 3,400. Conversely, a decline could see the index retest its support at 3,250.

The Dow (44722.06) was closed yesterday. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 43000 first and then to 42000-41000 going forward while below 45000. A sustained rise above 45000 is needed for the view to go wrong.

DAX (19425.73, +0.85%) has risen. We expect it to break 19600 and rise to 20000 in the coming weeks. While above 18800 the bias is bullish.

Nifty (23914.15, -1.49%) fell sharply to a low of 23873. Immediate resistance can be at 24000 and 24150 while below which a test of 23800 is possible. Failure to rise back from around 23800 can drag the Nifty down to 23650. It will then negate the rise to 24500-24700.

Nikkei (38192.96, -0.41%) remains under pressure, struggling to break above 38500 while trading above 38000. As long as the support at 37700 holds, the upside appears capped at the 39500-resistance. The overall bias remains bearish, with the potential for a decline toward 35000 possibly extending to 32000 over the medium term.

Shanghai (3308.9491, +0.32%) flirts around the level of 3000. Sustaining above this would trigger a rise towards 3350–3400. Conversely, a decline below 3300 could bring the index down to its support at 3250. A breach of this support would likely trigger a deeper fall towards 3150.

Brent and WTI prices show stability as the Middle East tension eases off. They can test 71 and 67 respectively in the near term before a bounce back is seen. Gold and Silver have risen but need a sustained break above 2700 and 31 to see higher levels of 2750-2800 and 31.5-32.0 respectively. Copper remains ranged between 4.2-4.05. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.4-3.5 for the near term.

Brent ($ 72.57) rose slightly to 73.49 as Middle East tension eases off a bit. It can test 71 on the downside before a rise to 74-76 takes place.

WTI ($ 68.75) has not moved much since yesterday. Our view remains intact to see a fall towards 67 in the near term.

Gold ($ 2668.50) has inched up further above 2650 and can rise to 2700 in the near term. Thereafter we have to see whether it breaks above 2700 to see higher levels of 2750-2800. Or else it may fall back to 2600-2550. Watch price action near 2700.

Silver (30.84) has risen in line with our expectations. It needs a sustained break above 31 to see higher levels of 31.5-32.0. Else, it can break on the lower side below 30.5 and fall to 30.0-29.5. We give a higher probability to the first scenario.

Copper (4.1470) can remain ranged between 4.2-4.05 for the upcoming weeks.

Natural Gas (3.2970) rose back sharply above 3.2 after weekly nat-gas inventories fell to lower than expected. It can move further up to 3.4-3.5 in the upcoming sessions.

3:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.5% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.4%

8:00 13:30 CH GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.7%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
… Exp 2.0% … Expected 2.3% … Previous 2.0%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
… Exp 7.7% … Expected 6.5% … Previous 6.7%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.0%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 95.5 … Expected 95.1 … Previous 95.7 …Actual 95.8