Dollar Index failed to sustain its rise as Trump agreed to pause the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month. Still, while above 108, rise to 110-111 is not fully ruled out. Euro has risen past 1.03 but could face rejection from 1.04. EURINR can trade within broad range of 89/88-91, until a decisive break is seen. USDJPY needs to rise past 156 to turn bullish again. EURJPY, AUDUSD and Pound have immediate resistances coming at 162.25, 0.6250-0.6300 and 1.25/26 respectively. USDCNY is closed today. USDINR is trading below 87 on the NDF currently but downside is expected to be limited to 86.80-86.50. The pair can later move higher towards 87.50 in the near term. US ADP Employment and US Trade balance is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (108.638) after rising to the high of 109.881, started coming off as President Donald Trump agreed to “immediately pause” planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month. The immediate support is coming around 108.00-107.75. So even if the fall extends further, the downside can be limited for now. The targets of 110-111 are kept alive while the index trades above 108.

EURUSD (1.0321) has bounced well from the low of 1.02 on Dollar weakness and has even surged past 1.03. While the rise sustains, a test to higher resistance at 1.04 can happen. Thereafter, a strong break past it will be needed to make the outlook bullish further. Else, it will be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.03 or even lower.

EURINR (89.7342) has risen well within its broad range of 89/88-91 but still a decisive break will be needed on either side for further directional clarity.

EURJPY (159.01) in line with our view of seeing a fall towards 157/56, tested 157.97 on the downside before rising back higher. Even if the rise extends further, can be limited to interim resistance at 162.50 and higher at 164. Immediate support at 158-157 region.

Dollar-Yen (155.23) looks stable above 155 but still a strong rise past 156 will be needed to make the outlook further bullish. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether the rise happens or not.

USDCNY (7.2502) is closed today. While above 7.250-2.225, a rise back towards 7.28/29 can be seen in the near term.

Aussie (0.6210) and Pound (1.2421) in line with our view of seeing a fall towards 0.60 and 1.22, tested 0.6087 and 1.2248 respectively before recovering from there. Both the pairs have immediate resistances coming at 0.6250-0.6300 and 1.25/26 region. While it holds, pairs can fall back again in the near term.

USDINR (86.9420) witnessed the high of 87.2825 before coming down. Currently on the NDF it is trading below 87 but we expect the downside to be limited to 86.80-86.50 max. Eventually, pair can ascend towards 87.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields are holding well above their support. A strong rise breaking above their intermediate resistance will confirm the trend reversal and take the yields higher. A narrow sideways consolidation is also a possibility before the reversal happens. The German yields have declined sharply. A further fall from here can drag them lower. The view remains bearish. The 10Yr GoI can dip within its range. The yield can consolidate sideways before moving higher eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.56%) and 30Yr (4.80%) yields are sustaining well above their supports at 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr). A strong rise above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) will confirm the reversal. The yields can then rise to 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.38%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) yields have declined sharply. The 10Yr has come below 2.4%. Further fall from here can drag it down to 2.2%. The 30Yr can fall to 2.4% if it breaks below 2.6%. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6803%) has come down from 6.71%. It can fall to 6.6% in the near-term. The 6.6%-6.7250% range can remain intact for some time before a rise to 6.8%-6.85% happens eventually.

The Dow Jones initially dipped below 44000 but later recovered. A break below 44000 could trigger a decline towards 43500-43300, while upside remains capped at 45100 for now.The DAX has turned lower, and while trading below 21500, it is likely to decline towards 21000-20800. The Nifty failed to sustain above 23400 and closed lower. The index must stay above 23150 to keep the possibility of a rise towards 23700 intact; otherwise, it could decline to 23000-22800. The Nikkei closed above 38500 and opened higher above 39000 today. If this upward momentum sustains, further gains are possible; otherwise, the index may retreat to 38500-38000. Shanghai will resume trading tomorrow.

The Dow (44421.91, -0.28%) witnessed a sharp intraday fall but has held well above 44000. A fall to 43500-43300 looks possible on a break below 44000 and while below 44650.

DAX (21428.24, -1.40%) opened with a wide gap-down and tumbled to a low of 21252. Looks like a top is in place, and a fall to 21000-20800 is possible now while below 21500.

Nifty (23361.05, -0.52%) has come down sharply. It has to sustain above 23150 to keep alive the chances of the rise to 23700. Else a revisit of 22800 is possible again.

Nikkei (39140.36, +1.61%) has surged above 39000. If it sustains this level, further upside towards 40000 is possible. Otherwise, a decline towards 38500-38000 could be seen. Overall, the index is expected to trade within the 38000-40000 range.

Shanghai (3250.6007, -0.06%) will resume trading tomorrow. The index is at a key level of 3250; sustaining above this could lead to an upward move towards 3300-3350, while a break below may push it down to 3200-3150.

Crude have fallen due to the delay in US tariffs but the view remains intact to see a rise towards $ 78-79 and $ 75-76 for the near term. Gold can trade between $ 2850-2800 for some time, while Silver can rise towards $ 33.0-33.5. Copper can possibly test $ 4.37-4.40 on the higher side before a fall to $ 4.2-4.0 takes place. Natural Gas needs to sustain above $ 3.2 in order to negate our earlier bearish outlook.

Brent ($ 75.50) initially rose to $ 77.36 due to US tariffs but has fallen sharply since the US delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada until March. While the immediate support at $ 75 holds, we may see a rise towards $ 78-79 in the near term.

WTI ($ 72.42) remains above its immediate support. As long as this holds, a rise towards $ 75-76 looks likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 2848.20) has performed in line with our expectations, testing a low of $ 2802 yesterday before bouncing back to close higher. The immediate resistance is near current levels, and while this holds, we might see a range between $ 2850-2800 for some time.

Silver ($ 32.46) tested its immediate support near $ 31.61 yesterday before bouncing back above $ 32. A further rise towards $ 33.0-33.5 can take place in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.3270) has bounced back sharply from the low of $ 4.18. It could test its immediate resistance near $ 4.37-4.40 before turning bearish towards $ 4.2-4.1 in the upcoming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3370) has moved up sharply, contrary to our expectations. If it sustains above $ 3.2, a further rise towards $ 3.5-3.6 could occur in the near term, negating our earlier bearish outlook towards $ 2.8.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 60.7 … Expected 56.8 … Previous 59.3

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
… Exp – … Expected 51.4 … Previous 49.6

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 149K … Previous 122K

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected -97.1 … Previous -78.2

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 48.9 … Expected 48.8 … Previous 49.6 … Actual 48.7

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 49.7 … Expected 50.6 … Previous 50.5 … Actual 50.1

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… Exp 56.9 … Expected 58.0 … Previous 56.4 … Actual 57.7

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
… Exp 47.9 … Expected 49.0 … Previous 48.4 … Actual 47.5

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
… Exp – … Expected 46.1 … Previous 45.1 … Actual 46.6

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
… Exp 49.7 … Expected 48.2 … Previous 47.0 … Actual 48.3

10:00 15:30 EU Core CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
… Exp 2.3% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.4% … Actual 2.5%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 52.2 … Actual 51.6

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… Exp 49.2 … Expected 49.3 … Previous 49.3 … Actual 50.9