Dollar Index extended the fall further, but the downside is anticipated to be limited to 105.50. Euro has resistance at 1.0550, below which a range of 1.0550-1.0350 can hold for now. EURINR is rising within its range of 90.50-92.00. USDJPY can remain ranged within 152-148 for now. EURJPY has again declined sharply towards the support around 156 region. Need to see whether it holds or not. AUDUSD on a decisive break below 0.62, can fall towards 0.61. Pound if sustained above 1.26, can head towards 1.28 in the near term. USDCNY on a confirmed break past 7.29, can extend the rise towards 7.30. USDINR has downside limited to 87. On the upside, a rise past 87.50 will be needed to bring 87.80-88.00 into picture.

The US Feb ISM manufacturing index came out weaker than expectations at 50.3 (50.7) and Ukraine peace deal improved further. Thie led Dollar Index (106.557) to fell sharply to the low of 106.40. Even if the fall continues, the downside can be limited to 105.50 max. Either from current levels or upon testing 105.50, index can eventually rise back higher in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0482) gained strength on Dollar weakness and tested 1.0503 on the upside. An interim resistance is coming at 1.0550 below which a broad range of 1.0350-1.0550 can hold for a while.

EURINR (91.5715) has surged significantly and if sustained, can test the upper end of its range of 90.50-92.00. Overall, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

EURJPY (156.38) tested our initial target around 158.47 before coming off sharply. Currently it is back near the support around 156. Only a decisive break below 156 can bring 154-152 back into picture. Else, it can attempt to rise back towards previous levels, while above 156. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Resistance between 151-152 region is holding well as Dollar-Yen (149.29) tested 151.30 before coming down. Still, a decisive break below 148 will be needed to open the doors for 145 in the near term. Till then, it can move within 152-148 region.

USDCNY (7.2850) needs to see a sustained rise past 7.29 to extend the ongoing towards 7.30 or even higher as well in the coming sessions. Bias remains bullish for now.

Aussie (0.6208) continues to hover around the level of 0.62. Even if the fall continues, a break below 0.61 is not anticipated for now. Eventually, it can start rising back higher in the near term.

Pound (1.2694) limited the fall to the low of 1.2577 and shot up significantly past 1.26 as well. While the rise sustains above it, can get extended to 1.28 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (87.3120) remained below 87.50 yesterday. The immediate downside can be limited to 87.00 A rise past 87.50 would be needed to move higher towards 87.80-88.00.

The US Treasury yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The near-term bearish view is intact, and there is room to fall more from here. The German yields have risen back sharply. The supports have held well as expected. That keeps intact our bullish view to see more rise. The 10Yr GoI sustains its bullish breakout. It can rise more in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.12%) and 30Yr (4.43%) Treasury yields are coming down towards 4% and 4.3% in line with our expectation. Our bearish view remains intact.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.80%) yields have risen back sharply. The support at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) are holding well as expected. That keeps our bullish view intact to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7372%) sustains the break above 6.7250%. The outlook is bullish to see a rise to 6.8%-6.85%.

The Dow Jones has fallen to the lower end of the sideways range of 43000-44000. The view remains bearish towards 42000 and lower. DAX has risen above 23000. While above 23000 holds, extended gains to 23500 and above look possible. So far, Nifty is holding above 22000. It needs a rise past 22500 to mitigate a downside fall to 21700. Nikkei, in intraday, fell below 37000 but currently is trading slightly above 37000; however, while below 38000, a fall towards 36000-35000 looks possible. Shanghai, contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise above 3350 to 3400, fell to 3297 and is moving up towards 3320. A further rise past 3320 would take the index towards 3350.

The Dow (43191.24, -1.48%) has come down sharply within the 43000-44000 range. Indeed 43000 was broken in the intraday trades. We retain our bearish bias to see a break of 43000 and a fall to 42000 and lower.

DAX (23147.02, +2.64%) has surged above 23000 as expected. While this break sustains, a further rise to 23500 and higher levels is possible.

Nifty (22119.30, -0.02%) is managing to hold above 22000. But a strong rise above 22500 is needed to negate the danger of seeing 21700 on the downside.

Nikkei (37096.46, -1.86%) stayed below 38000 and is trading above 37000. The outlook remains bearish to witness a fall towards 36000-35000.

Shanghai (3317.8048, +0.03%) failed to rise past 3350, fell below 3300, but has moved up and is heading towards 3320. Thereafter, if the rise past 3320 is seen, then it could extend to 3350

Crude prices have fallen sharply as OPEC+ confirms an April production increase, and Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada come into effect. If the decline sustains, prices could test $ 68 (Brent) and $ 65 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver are likely to rise towards $ 2950 and $ 32.5–33.5, respectively. Copper may remain within a range of $ 4.7–4.5 for some time. Natural Gas could rise towards $ 4.2–4.4 while staying above $ 4.0.

Brent ($ 71.10) and WTI ($ 68.01) have fallen sharply as OPEC+ confirms the production increase for April and Trump signs off on 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. We need to see if prices continue to fall towards $ 68 and $ 65, or if they bounce back to maintain the previous ranges of $ 77–$ 71 and $ 73–$ 68, respectively.

Gold ($ 2896.90) has bounced back in line with our expectations and could move further towards $ 2950 in the near term. A breakout above $ 2950 could push it higher, potentially reaching $ 3000.

Silver ($ 32.09) has risen above $ 32 as expected. It could continue to rise towards $ 32.5–$ 33.5 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5745) tested a high of $ 4.65 yesterday. The near term looks to remain in a range between $ 4.7-$ 4.5 for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 4.1360) tested a low of $ 3.74 and bounced back sharply, closing higher at $ 4.12 yesterday. If the rise sustains, further upward movement towards $ 4.2–$ 4.4 could occur in the near term.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.4%

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
… Exp 6.3% … Expected 6.3% … Previous 6.3%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 48.3 … Expected 48.9 … Previous 48.7 …Actual 49.0

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 49.8 … Expected 50.4 … Previous 50.1 …Actual 50.8

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… Exp 57.9 … Expected 57.1 … Previous 57.7 …Actual 56.3

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
… Exp 47.0 … Expected 48.3 … Previous 47.5 …Actual 49.6

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
… Exp – … Expected 47.3 … Previous 46.6 …Actual 47.6

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
… Exp 48.9 … Expected 46.4 … Previous 48.3 …Actual 46.9

10:00 15:30 EU Core CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.3% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.4%

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 51.6

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… Exp 51.0 … Expected 50.6 … Previous 50.9 …Actual 50.3