The Dollar Index is trading within 99.0-100.5 region since last few sessions. A confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro needs to break past 1.14 to head towards 1.16-1.18, else can initially witness a fall to 1.12. EURINR has immediate support near 95.0-94.5, above which it can bounce back towards 96. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading lower within their range of 164-160 and 145-140 respectively. AUDUSD if fails to sustain above 0.645 can get pulled back within its range of 0645-0.635. The USDCNY has slipped below 7.25 and can extend the fall to 7.20. Pound can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. USDINR is coming off as anticipated. While below 84.50, the pair can trade within 84.50-84.00 region for a while. US Trade Balance data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.88) has remained stable within a narrow range of 99.00-100.50 region. Immediate upside is capped at 101 and while below it, we retain our view of the Indec getting dragged towards 99 or even 98-96 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1307) faded the yesterday’s gains and started coming off from 1.1364 itself. The pair needs to see rise past 1.14 to confirm the anticipated rise to 1.16-1.18. Else, failure to do so can initially take it towards 1.12 before turning higher.

EURINR (95.4340) has been trading within 96-95 region since the last few sessions. For now, the downside is expected to be limited to 95.0-94.5 max and eventually the cross can attempt to rise back towards 96.50.

EURJPY (162.59) and Dollar-Yen (143.74) are trading lower within their respective ranges of 164-160 and 145-140.

USDCNY (7.2298) in line with our lesser preferred view of seeing a fall below 7.25, pair is trading near 7.23 region. Now, while below 7/25, fall can get extended to 7.20 before possibly halting.

Aussie (0.6456) rose to the high of 0.6493 before cooling down. The pair will have to sustain above 0.645 to keep the targets of 0.655-0.660 alive. Any fall below 0.645 can pull it back within the earlier range of 0.645-0.635 region.

Pound (1.3288) can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. Any break below 1.32 if seen can open the doors for 1.31-1.30 on the downside.

USDINR (84.2250) in line with our bearish view the pair tested 84.11. While below 84.50, a range of 84.50-84.00 can persist for some time.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. This eases the downside pressure and the danger of the fall that we have been expecting earlier. The yields now have room to rise further in the coming days. The German Yields remain higher but stable. They have to break their upcoming resistance to go further higher. Else they can fall back and keep the broader downtrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. A break below the lower end of the range will be very bearish. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.34%) and 30Yr (4.83%) Treasury yields continue to move up. The near-term outlook is bullish to see 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.9%-5% (30Yr) on the upside. The fall that we have been expecting is not happening now.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and 30Yr (2.97%) yields remain higher but stable. Resistance is at 2.55% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) which has to be broken to move higher. Else the yields can fall back and keep the bearish view intact of seeing 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3247%) has come down within its 6.3%-6.4% range. A strong break below 6.3% will be bearish to see 6% on the downside. We still have to wait and watch.

Dow looks bullish with a possible target of 42000-42200 intact. Dax needs to break above 23500 to head towards 24500-24800. Nifty is also bullish and a break above 24600 will see a pick up in upward momentum towards 24700-25000.
Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai is trading slightly higher today but can have some scope to test 3260/50 before loving up towards 3300 or higher.

The Dow (41218.83, -0.24%) sustains higher and keeps the chances alive of seeing 42000-42200. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is reversing lower again or not.

DAX (23344.54, +1.12%) retains its momentum and is heading up towards 23500. As mentioned yesterday, a break above 23500 can take it up to 24500-24800.

Nifty (24461.15, +0.47%) remained broadly stable above 24400 all through the day. The bias remains bullish to see 24700-25000. A break above 24600 can take it higher. 24200 and 23900 will continue to act as a good support.

Nikkei (36830.69,  +1.04%) is closed today.

Shanghai (3287.56, +0.26%) has moved up slightly today but overall can test 3260/50 before rising back towards 3300+ levels in the medium term.

Crude prices saw a slight recovery but remain bearish, with Brent and WTI likely to decline further. Gold bounced back sharply above $ 3,300 and may rise towards $ 3,500, while Silver has also turned up, aiming for $ 34.5. Copper remains strong with potential to test $ 4.90. Natural gas looks set to rise towards $ 4.0 if it holds above $ 3.5.

Brent ($ 61.20) saw a slight recovery yesterday; however, the overall outlook remains bearish, with a potential decline towards $ 58–$ 56 in the near term.

WTI ($ 58.06) also experienced a recovery, but the broader trend continues to point downward towards $ 55–$ 54 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,385.60) did not fall to the expected $ 3,100 level; instead, it has rebounded sharply above $ 3,300. As long as it remains above $ 3,300, we anticipate a further rise towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 33.25) has bounced back earlier than expected, with the price now above $ 33. A further upward move towards $ 34.0–$ 34.5 appears likely in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 4.7215) touched a high of $ 4.7655 yesterday. The outlook remains positive for a continued rise towards $ 4.80–$ 4.90 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5910) experienced a pullback yesterday. However, as long as it stays above $ 3.5, we expect an upward movement towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0 in the coming weeks.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 57.8 … Expected 59.1 … Previous 58.5

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp -109.1 … Expected -124.7 … Previous -122.7

DATA YESTERDAY
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6:30 12:00 CH CPI
… Exp 0.4 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.4 … Actual 0.1