The Dollar Index on a confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro on an immediate break past 1.14 can head towards 1.16-1.18. EURINR has immediate support near 94.50, above which it can bounce back towards 96.50. EURJPY and USDJPY are back within their old range of 164-160 and 145-140 respectively. AUDUSD has risen past 0.645 and can head towards 0.66. The USDCNY while trades above 7.25, a rise to 7.28/30 is possible. Pound can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. USDINR faces immediate resistance at 84.70/80, below which it can again fall back towards 84 or lower.

Dollar Index (99.710) is holding well below the resistance between 100.50-101.00 region. While below 101, the Index can be vulnerable to fall back towards 99 or even 98-96 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1334) needs to see an immediate rise past 1.14 to confirm the anticipated rise to 1.16-1.18. Else, failure to do so can initially take it towards 1.12 before turning higher.

EURINR (95.8487) on Friday it tested 94.75 as anticipated before recovering from there. Now, while the immediate support at 94.50 holds, cross can attempt to rise back towards 96.50 in the coming sessions.

EURJPY (163.48) and Dollar-Yen (144.18) are currently back within their earlier range of 164-160 and 145-140 as they failed to sustain their rise and started coming off from the levels of 164.64 and 145.92 itself.

USDCNY (7.2706) while holds above 7.25, can attempt to rise back towards 7.28-7.30 in the coming sessions. The outlook can only turn bearish if a break below 7.25 happens.

Aussie (0.6471) has risen past 0.645 and if sustained, can head towards 0.655-0.660. At the same time, if the pair fails to persist its rise, can bring it back within the range of 0.645-0.635.

Pound (1.3292) can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. Any break below 1.32 if seen can open the doors for 1.31-1.30 on the downside.

USDINR (84.43) on Friday slipped sharply below 84 to the low of 83.76 before closing higher. Now, the pair faces resistance at 84.70/80 which if held, can push the pair lower again towards 84.00 or even lower in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen sharply on Friday. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the Treasury yields further higher in the coming days. The German yields on the other hand have an immediate resistance. While that holds, they can fall back and keep the broader downtrend intact. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck in a narrow range. We will have to wait for the range to breakout on either side.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields have risen sharply on Friday. A further rise from here will ease the downside pressure and take them up to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.9%-5% (30Yr) in the coming days.

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and 30Yr (2.97%) yields have surged on Friday. But resistance is at 2.55% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr). While that holds, the view of seeing a fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) will still remain alive.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3538%) is stuck between 6.3%-6.4%. We still have to wait for a breakout on either side to get clarity on the next move.

Dow Jones has risen well above 41000 and can rise towards 42000/43000. Dax is bullish for a rise to 23500 a break above which would open door for a further rise towards 24500-24800. Nifty needs to rise above 24400 to head towards 24700/25000 else a correction towards supports at 24200/23900 can be possible. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed for the day for Children’s Day and Labor Day respectively.

The Dow (41317.43, +1.39%) has risen well above 41000. While this sustains, a further rise to 42000-42200 is possible. The price action thereafter will need close watch.

DAX (23086.65, +2.62%) is heading up towards 23500 as expected. A strong break above 23500 will be very bullish to see 24500-24800 on the upside.

Nifty (24346.70, +0.05%%) fell sharply after surging to a high of 24589 on Friday. The broader view remains bullish to see 24700-25000. A sustained break above 24400 can trigger this rise. Support is at 24200 and 23900.

Nikkei (36830.69, +1.04%) is closed today for Children’s Day. It would be important to see if the immediate resistance at 37000 holds and pushes the Nikkei lower for a corrective move in the next few sessions or if the index manages to break past 37000 and rise further towards 38000/39000.

Shanghai (3279.03, -0.23%) is also closed today for Labor Day. It has immediate resistance near 3290 below which there can be scope to fall towards 3260/3250 in the next few sessions.

Crude prices have declined sharply as OPEC+ agrees another accelerated oil output hike for June, the prices remains bearish for the near term. Gold remains weak below $ 3,300 with a potential drop to $ 3,100, while Silver could test $ 31.5 before rebounding. Copper has bounced from $ 4.52 and may rise towards $ 4.80–$ 4.90. Natural gas has surged past $ 3.45, with potential to move up to $ 4.00 in the coming weeks.

Brent ($ 59.43) and WTI ($ 56.35) have declined sharply as OPEC+ has agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day. The prices could fall further towards $ 58–$ 56 and $ 55–$ 54 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,270.60) is hovering near $ 3,200. While it remains below $ 3,300, a further decline towards $ 3,100 appears likely in the near term.

Silver ($ 32.28) has declined as expected. It may test the immediate support at $ 31.5 before a potential bounce in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.7130) did not see the expected fall; instead, it bounced back from $ 4.52. Now, while above $ 4.50, it could rise further towards $ 4.80–$ 4.90 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6950) has broken sharply above $ 3.45 in line with our alternate expectation and rose to a high of $ 3.6730 on Friday. It may now continue to rise towards $ 3.80–$ 4.00 in the coming weeks.

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
… Exp 0.4 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.4

DATA FRIDAY
……………
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.4% … Actual 2.5%

1:30 07:00 AU PPI
… Exp – … Expected 0.8% … Previous 0.8% … Actual 0.9%

5:00 10:30 IN Manf PMI
… Exp 58.9 …Expected 58.4 … Previous 58.1 …Actual 58.2

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… Exp 46.1 …Expected 48.7 … Previous 48.9 …Actual 45.8

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… Exp – …Expected 48.7 … Previous 48.6 …Actual 49.0

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… Exp 6.1% … Expected 6.1% … Previous 6.2% … Actual 6.2%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
… Exp 171K … Expected 129K … Previous 185K … Actual 177K

12:30 18:00 US Unemp Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.2% … Previous 4.2% … Actual 4.2%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earn
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3 … Actual 0.2

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.7% … Expected 2.1% … Previous 2.2% … Actual 2.2%

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.16 … Actual 0.3