The FED kept the interest rates unchanged at the target range of 4.25% to 4.5% but the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. The Dollar Index and Euro continues to hold the range of 100.50-99.00 and 1.1250-1.14 region respectively. EURINR on a confirmed break past 96.50 can head towards 98-99 as well. Else, can continue to trade within 95.0-96.5 region. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading lower within their range of 164-160 and 145-140 respectively. AUDUSD has risen well and while above 0.645/640 the target of 0655-0.660 are kept open in the near term. The USDCNY above 7.20 can rise back towards 7.30 again. Pound can broadly trade within 1.32-1.35 region for a while. USDINR tested 84.93 yesterday. While below 85, a fall back towards 84.50 can happen. Watch price action closely around current levels. BOE meeting is scheduled today wherein the market expects a 20 bps rate cuts.

Dollar Index (99.653) and EURUSD (1.1330) continues to trade within its narrow range of 100.50-99.00 and 1.1250-1.14 region respectively. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity. The Index if breaks below 99, can open doors for 98-96.

EURINR (95.9865) yesterday tested 96.4780 before declining a bit from there. A confirmed break past 96.50 will be needed to bring 98-99 into picture. Else, it can continue to trade within 95.00-96.50 region.

EURJPY (162.72) and Dollar-Yen (143.79) are trading lower within their respective ranges of 160-164 and 140-145.

USDCNY (7.2348) limited the downside to 7.2110 itself and started rising back. While above 7.20, the pair has a scope of bouncing back towards 7.3 again. Only if a decisive break below 7.20 if seen, can extend the fall to 7.10.

Aussie (0.6460) in line with our bullish view, a test to 0.6514 was seen before the pair turned lower. Still, while above 0.645-0.640 the target of 0.655-0.660 is kept open for now.

Pound (1.3348) has immediate support near 1.33 region, above which it has a scope to rise towards 1.3450-1.350. Overall, while below 1.35, a broad range of 1.33/32-1.35 can hold for some time. A better clarity could be expected after the BOE meeting scheduled today.

USDINR (84.7040) rose sharply to the high of 84.93 before closing lower. While below 85, a fall back towards 84.50 can happen in the coming sessions. Only if a break past 85 is seen, can negate the anticipated fall and take it towards 85.25 and higher. Watch price action closely around 85 region to see whether it holds or not.

The US Treasury yields continue to remain lower. This increases the chances of seeing more fall going forward rather than rising back. The US Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged as expected. The central bank has also said that it will not be in a hurry to cut rates without assessing the impact of tariffs. As such the chances are high now for the rates to remain unchanged at this level for some time. The German Yields have declined sharply from near their resistance. That keeps the broader downtrend intact. The yields can fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate up and down within its narrow range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to determine the next direction of move.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.78%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Looks like the rise back to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.9%-5% (30Yr) is not happening. We can expect a fall to 4.2% (10Yr), 4.7% (30Yr) and even lower in the coming days.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and 30Yr (2.92%) yields have declined sharply failing to break their resistance at 2.55% and 3% respectively. That keeps the broader down trend intact. The yields can now fall to 2.4%-2.35% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3367%) is moving up and down within its narrow 6.3%-6.4% range. We will have to wait for this range breakout to see whether the yield can fall to 6% or rise to 6.5%.

Dow Jones has risen contrary to our expectation of a dip to 40000.  While above 40700, we keep chances of a possible rise to 42000-42200 alive. Dax has dipped and has scope to decline further towards 22500/400 before resuming the broader uptrend. Nifty rose yesterday holding well above 24200. We may expect a rise to 24600 and a range of 24200-24600 to hold for sometime. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards resistance near 37000 and 3400 respectively.

The Dow (41113.97, +0.70%) is holding above 40700 and has bounced back. That keeps alive the chances of the rise to 42000-42200. A break above 41500 can trigger this rise.
 
DAX (23115.96, -0.58%) has come down. A further fall from here can see a corrective dip to 22500-22400 first. Thereafter the uptrend can resume targeting 24500-24800.

Nifty (24414.40, 0.14%) has risen back well from above 24200. For now 24200-24600 looks to be the range. The bias remains positive to break 24600 and rise to 24700-25000.

Nikkei (36863.11,  +0.23%) has picked up rising momentum after a brief dip seen yesterday. It may head towards resistance at 37000 which if breaks higher can bring in fresh bullishness. Watch price action at 37000.

Shanghai (3342.62, +0.80%) continues it’s upmove and can target resistance at 3400 soon.

Brent and WTI have fallen as expected and may decline further towards $ 58–$ 56 and $ 56–$ 54 respectively. Gold remains bullish above $ 3,300 with potential to rise to $ 3,500, while Silver, holding above $ 33, could move up to $ 33.50–$ 34.50. Copper, despite a pullback from $ 4.80, stays positive above support with targets of $ 5.00–$ 5.20. Natural gas has rebounded as expected and may rise further to $ 3.80–$ 4.00 in the near term.

Brent ($ 61.46) has reverted back in line with our expectations and may fall towards our previously mentioned levels of $ 58–$ 56 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 58.40) has also aligned with our anticipated fall and can decline further towards $ 56–$ 54 in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,415.80) dipped to $ 3,367 yesterday, but as long as it holds above $ 3,300, we maintain our view of a potential rise towards $ 3,500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 33.03) tested a low of $ 32.47 yesterday but has climbed back above $ 33. A further move up towards $ 33.50–$ 34.50 appears likely in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 4.6650) tested a high of $ 4.80 and sharply pulled back to close lower at $ 4.65 yesterday. As long as the immediate support holds, we remain biased towards a rise to $ 5.00–$ 5.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6270) bounced back to $ 3.65 yesterday as expected. A further rise towards $ 3.80–$ 4.00 can be anticipated in the near term.

1:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 4.3% … Previous 4.5%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
… Exp – … Expected 0-9-0 … Previous 0-1-8

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -29.7 …Actual -26.5

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 1.4% … Expected -0.1% … Previous 0.2% …Actual -0.1%

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected <4.50% ... Previous <4.50%