The Dollar Index has slipped below 100 and the Euro has risen past 1.13. The index can now extend the fall towards 98-96, while Euro can head towards 1.14/15 if the ongoing movement sustains in both. EURINR is rising as anticipated and the targets of 97-98 can be achieved in the near term. EURJPY can broadly remain ranged within 160-165 with an upward bias. While USDJPY is trading near the crucial support around 144. Need to see whether it holds or extends the fall to 140 in the near term. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.635-0.650 for a while. The USDCNY below 7.23 looks bearish towards 7.20 and lower. Pound has risen past 1.34 but immediate upside could be capped at 1.3450-1.3500. The USDINR can trade within narrow range of 85.25-85.75 and a broad range of 85-86 for a while.

Dollar Index (99.80) finally slipped below its 100 mark as the Donald Trump failed to convince the Republicans to back his tax bill. While below 100, fall can get extended to 98-96 before halting. Immediate upside could be limited to 101.

EURUSD (1.1315) has risen past 1.13 and can now head towards 1.14-1.15 in the near term. Overall, the downside can be limited to 1.12 max.

EURINR (96.89) is rising in line with our bullish view and while above 95, the targets of 97-98 can be achieved soon.

EURJPY (163.03) above 162 has a scope to bounce back towards 164-165. Overall, the broad range of 160-165 can hold for some time.

Dollar-Yen (144.00) is trading just near the immediate support around current levels. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether 144 holds and bounces back or extends the fall to 140 on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2115) is moving within 7.2250-7.2000 region since the last few sessions. For now, while the resistance at 7.23 holds, bias remains bearish to see a fall back towards 7.20 or lower. Our view may turn out to be wrong only if a strong break past 7.23 happens.

Aussie (0.6437) needs to see a decisive break on the either side of its range of 0.635-0.650 for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.3417) has risen past 1.34 but faces an immediate resistance at 1.3450-1.3500, break past which will be needed to maintain the bullishness in the trend. Else, failure to do so can bring it lower towards 1.32-1.31.

USDINR (85.5710) is stuck within 85.25-85.75 region since the last few sessions. Overall, broad range of 85-86 and a narrow range of 85.25-85.75 is likely to persist for a while.

The US Treasury Yields are staying higher and are oscillating in a range. We will have to wait for this range to breakout to get a clear idea on the next direction of move. The German yields have risen back. The bullish view is intact to see more rise. Supports can limit the downside on intermediate dips. The 10Yr GoI has come down again failing to sustain the bounce. The bearish view is intact. The yield has room to fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields are oscillating in a range of 4.4%-4.6% and 4.85%-5.05% over the last few days. A breakout of this range will decide whether the yields can rise to 4.8% (10Yr), 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr) or fall to 4.3% (10Yr), 4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.60%) and 30Yr (3.09%) yields have risen back. While above 2.5% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr), the outlook will remain bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.2652%) has come down failing to sustina the bounce. The bearish view is intact. The 10Yr GoI can fall to 6.2% and lower. 6.3%-6.35% can cap the upside in case of a rise.

Most indices look mixed. Dow has fallen sharply from 42800 and could have scope to decline towards 42000 before rising back towards 43000, while Dax has closed above our expected resistance at 24000 and could head higher towards 25000 if it sustains trade above 24000. Nifty fell sharply yesterday, but while above 24600, there is some scope for a rise towards 25000. Nikkei is bearish while below 37500, while Shanghai is headed towards resistance near 3400, from where a dip is possible in the near term.

The Dow (42677.24, -0.27%) could not rise above 42800 and instead fell from there. If the correction persists, we may expect an initial dip towards 42000 before a rise back towards the 43000-resistance level is seen.

DAX (24036.11, +0.42%) has managed to close above our mentioned resistance at 24000. There is some scope that the index may dip from here and fall back towards 23500 or slightly lower but if it holds on above 24000, we may expect a further upside extension towards 25000. Watch price action around current levels.

Nifty (24683.90, -1.05%) declined sharply yesterday falling to a low of 24670. We reiterate immediate trend support at 24600 above which the index can attempt to rise back towards 25000 and higher eventually. But if the index declines below 24600, it could be vulnerable to decline further towards 24000.

Nikkei (37451.27, -0.21%) has broken below our expected support at 37500. A sustained fall below 37500 could make the index fall further towards 37000-36000.

Shanghai (3386.32, +0.17%) is headed towards resistance at 3400 in the near term from where a decline can be witnessed towards 3350 or lower. A break past 3400 will be necessary to reinforce bullishness towards 3500 or higher.

Crude prices showed mixed movement with Brent slightly dipping but still targeting $ 68–$ 70, while WTI rose sharply, eyeing $ 65–$ 66. Gold continues its upward trend toward $ 3,350–$ 3,400. Silver remains range-bound between $ 33-$ 34. Copper struggles to break resistance at $ 4.60, keeping the bias downward toward $ 4.40–$ 4.50. Natural Gas bounced from support and may rise further to $ 3.60–$ 3.80.

Brent ($ 65.38) dipped slightly yesterday, but the outlook remains positive for a potential rise towards its immediate resistance near $ 68–$ 70 in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 62.99) remained subdued yesterday but has risen sharply today, testing a high of $ 64.19 so far. It may continue to move up and test its immediate resistance near $ 65–$ 66 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,296.80) is moving upward in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3,350–$ 3,400 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.22) has bounced back sharply and tested a high of $ 33.31 yesterday. While it remains below $ 34, we expect the previously mentioned range of $ 34–$ 33 to hold for some time.

Copper ($ 4.6820) is consistently attempting to break above its immediate resistance, as it is not falling below $ 4.60. As long as this resistance holds, our view remains biased towards a decline to $ 4.50–$ 4.40 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4040) has tested its immediate support as expected and surged back to $ 3.4530 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 may occur in the coming sessions.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 2.6% … Expected 3.3% … Previous 2.6%

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 3.85% … Previous 4.10% …Actual 3.85%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.3%