The Dollar Index and Euro can head towards 98-96 and 1.14-1.15 respectively in the near term. EURINR is rising as anticipated and the targets of 97-98 can be achieved in the near term. EURJPY on a break below 162 can test 160 on the downside. Overall, it can broadly remain ranged within 165-160 region. USDJPY has slipped below 144 and if the fall persists, can get extended to 142-140 in the coming sessions. AUDUSD continues to trade within the range of 0.635-0.650 for a while. The USDCNY has slipped below 7.20 and the targets of 7.18/15 can be achieved if the fall continues. Overall, the view remains bearish below 7.23. Pound needs to rise past 1.35 to maintain bullishness, else while the resistance holds, a fall back towards 1.32-1.31 can happen. The USDINR can trade within narrow range of 85.25-85.75 and a broad range of 85-86 for a while. US Existing Home Sales data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.58) in line with our bearish view, tested 99.33 yesterday before recovering a bit from there. While below 101, the fall is likely to get extended to 98-96 before halting.

EURUSD (1.1335) and EURINR (96.9583) have risen well so far and the targets of 1.14-1.15 and 98-99 remains intact while the pairs trade above 1.12 and 95 respectively.

EURJPY (162.45) was expected to test 164-165 but the rise halted at 163.43 itself. Any break below 162 can drag it further to 160 in the near term. Overall, the broad range of 165-160 can hold for some time.

Dollar-Yen (143.25) as cautioned, has slipped below 144 and if it sustains below 144, then the pair can be vulnerable to extend the fall further to 142-140.

USDCNY (7.1992) as anticipated, gave a break below 7.20 level. While below 7.23, a test to 7.18/15 looks likely to happen before halting. To negate our bearish bias the USDCNY will have to rise past 7.23, which seems less likely.

Aussie (0.6435) needs to see a decisive break on the either side of its range of 0.635-0.650 for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.3428) tested the resistance near 1.3470 region before declining from there. A decisive break past 1.35 will be needed to maintain the bullishness in the trend. Else, failure to do so can bring it lower towards 1.32-1.31.

USDINR (85.5280) yesterday tested 85.6950before closing lower. Overall, broad range of 85-86 and a narrow range of 85.25-85.75 is likely to persist for a while before eventually breaking higher.

The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply and are showing strength. That keeps the bias positive. We can expect the yields to move further higher in the coming days. The German Yields have moved up as expected and are keeping intact our broader bullish view. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI is coming down as expected. The bearish view is intact and more fall is on the cards.

The US 10Yr (4.60%) and 30Yr (5.09%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. The 10Yr can breach 4.6% and rise to 4.8%. The 30Yr can rise to 5.3% on a break above 5.1%.

The German 10Yr (2.64%) and 30Yr (3.13%) yields continue to move up. They are heading up towards 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2442%) has come down further. It keeps the bearish view intact to see 6.2% and lower. Resistance is at 6.3%-6.35%.

Concerns over a rise in the federal deficit led to a plunge in the Dow Jones after a disappointing 20-year Treasury note auction was seen yesterday. The index could drag itself down towards 41000 on a break below 41800. Watch price action at 41800. Dax, Nifty, and Shanghai have risen and could test 25000, 25000-25200/400, and 3400 respectively. Nikkei has fallen sharply to 37000, and if it breaks below this level, it can have room to fall further towards 36000 in the coming days.

The Dow (41860.44, -1.91%) plunged below our expected 42000 level mentioned yesterday, shedding 816 points from the previous close. The selling in equity came in after a weak auction of 20Yr Treasury Bills yesterday, raising concerns over an increase in federal deficit that led to a sharp rise in bond yields. If the Dow breaks below 41800, it could drag itself further down to 41000 before attempting any reversal. Watch price action near 41800.

DAX (24122.40, +0.36%) has risen further, sustaining above 24000, contrary to our expectation of a slight dip. Now, while above 24000, there is room for a further rise to 25000.

Nifty (24813.45, +0.52%) has held above our expected support near 24600 and risen yesterday, moving closer to our target of 25000. A break above 25000 in the near term will bring higher targets of 25200-25400 into the picture.

Nikkei (37007.99, -0.78%) has fallen further below 37500 heading to our mentioned 37000 level. The ongoing correction may extend towards 36000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3387.70, +0.0037%) is stable today and could attempt to slowly rise towards resistance at 3400 in the near term, from where a decline can be witnessed towards 3350 or lower. A break past 3400 will be necessary to see a rally towards 3500 or higher.

Crude prices can rise towards $ 68–$ 70 (Brent) and $ 65–$ 66 (WTI) respectively. Gold continues its upward trend towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver nears key resistance at $ 34, a breakout could open room for $ 35–$ 36 on the higher side. Copper is at resistance near $ 4.70 and may decline to $ 4.40–$ 4.50 unless it breaks higher towards $ 4.80–$ 5.00. Natural gas faces resistance near $ 3.50, with a breakout targeting $ 3.60–$ 3.80, or a fallback to $ 3.10–$ 3.20.

Brent ($ 64.71) has fallen after testing a high of $ 66.63 yesterday. While above $ 64, the view remains intact for a potential rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 61.37) has dipped but may rise towards $ 65–$ 66 in the near term while it remains above $ 60.

Gold ($ 3,341.20) is moving up as expected and can rise further towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.75) is approaching the higher end of the mentioned range. A break above $ 34 would open up higher levels of $ 35–$ 36; otherwise, if $ 34 holds, it may continue to trade between $ 34–$ 32 for some time.

Copper ($ 4.7025) is trading at its immediate resistance. As long as this holds, we expect a decline towards $ 4.50–$ 4.40 in the coming weeks. However, a break above this level could take it higher towards $ 4.80–$ 5.00, which also cannot be ruled out.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3640) has reversed from its 21-Day Moving Average resistance near $ 3.50. A sustained break above this is needed for a move higher towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80; otherwise, it may fall back to $ 3.20–$ 3.10 on the downside.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 87.1 … Expected 87.7 … Previous 86.9

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp85.6 … Expected 87.0 … Previous 86.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp87.9 … Expected 88.3 … Previous 87.4

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
… Exp 3921K … Expected 4150K … Previous 4020K

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 2.6% … Expected 3.3% … Previous 2.6% … Actual 3.5%