The Dollar Index gained strength after the stronger US Consumer Confidence release at 98. Still, while below 101 the targets of 98-96 are kept open. EURUSD has declined a bit but we retain our bullish view while it trades above 1.1300-1.1270. EURINR is moving within a narrow range of 97.50-96.50. EURJPY can broadly remain within the 160-165 region. USDJPY has risen a bit but can face an immediate resistance at 145. AUDUSD is declining within the 0.650-0.635 range and the Pound if it falls further can test 1.34 on the downside before attempting to rise back. We need to see whether the USDCNY breaks past 7.21 or falls back again towards the support near 7.15 region. The USDINR has risen as anticipated and can extend it further to 85.50-85.75 in the near term. IN IIP data release is scheduled today.

Stronger than expected US Consumer data release at 98 (87.10) led Dollar Index (99.68) to rise around current levels. Even if the rise extends further, a resistance around 100.0-100.5 is evident in the charts. While below it, the targets of 98-96 are kept alive.

EURUSD (1.1402) has declined a bit on Dollar strength. Still, while it sustains above 1.1300.-1.1270, view remains intact to see a rise towards 1.15-1.16.

EURINR (96.6639) continues to oscillate within the 97.50-96.50 region. A break past the resistance near 97.50 will be needed to take it towards 98-99. Else, a fall back to 96.50-96.00 can happen initially before rising back.

EURJPY (163.35) has risen past 163 and even untested 163.94 before cooling down. Overall, a decisive break on either side of its broad range of 161/60-165 will be needed for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (144.30) tested our initial target near 142.11 before recovering from there. An immediate resistance is coming around the 145 region. While the pair trades below it, the targets of 142-140 are kept alive.

USDCNY (7.1860) needs to see a strong break past 7.21 to assume that it has bottomed at 7.1680. Else, while below 7.21, the pair can be vulnerable to get dragged towards 7.15 levels.

Aussie (0.6437) is declining within 0.650–0.635 range which is likely to persist for a while.

Pound (1.3494) is holding the resistance near 1.36 quite well for now. Going ahead, a test to 1.34 looks likely to happen before attempting to rise back, potentially break past 136 as well.

USDINR (85.2770) yesterday tested the high of 85.4450 before closing below it. A further up move towards 85.50-85.75 is expected in the near term.

The US Treasury Yields are coming down as expected. There is room to fall further to test their supports. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if they are bouncing back or not. The German yields have dipped. But support can limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. Bias remains bearish to see more fall. Any rise will be capped.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields are coming down as expected. They can test 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if they are bouncing back or not.

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and 30Yr (3%) yields have come down but are unlikely to sustain lower. The view is bullish. The yields can reverse higher again and rise towards 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.2531%) remains stable around 6.25%. View remains bearish to see 6.2% and lower levels. Any rise can be capped at 6.3%-6.35%.

The Dow rose on the fast track of trade tariff talks between the EU and the US after Trump delayed the tariff implementation to 9th July during the weekend. Dow could rise towards 42500-43000. Dax could rise to 25000-25200. Nifty dipped below resistance at 25080. Nikkei has near-term resistance zone of 38000-39000 from where a rejection is possible, while Shanghai can trade within 3340-3400 region for sometime. Only a break below 3340 would be bearish to 3300 or lower in the medium term.

The Dow (42343.65, +1.78%) rose after the EU and US agreed to fast-track the trade tariff talks to avoid “mutual pain of tariffs”. There is scope for a rise to 42500-43000 on the Dow. Thereafter, it needs to be seen if the index would break above the resistance at 43000 and rise past it.

DAX (24226.49, +0.83%) has moved up well as expected and could rise further towards 25000-25200.

Nifty (24826.20, -0.70%) dipped as the resistance near 25079 on the 3-day candle chart seems to be holding well. The Nifty can test 24500-24300 on the downside before attempting to rise back again in the medium term.

Nikkei (37945.11, +0.59%) is headed towards the resistance zone of 38000-39000, which needs to be surpassed to turn out bullish in the medium term. A decline seen from anywhere between 38000-39000 can see a test of 37000-36000.

Shanghai (3345.88, +0.14%) seems to be trading within 3340-3400 region for the near term. Failure to hold trade above 3340 in the near term can be bearish to 3300 or lower.

Brent and WTI have dipped and are expected to trade within $ 67–$ 63 and $ 64–$ 60 ranges, respectively, until a breakout occurs. Gold remains bullish despite dipping to $ 3,283, targeting $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver holds a $ 34–$ 32 range below $ 34. Copper has found support near $ 4.72 and can rally higher towards $ 4.80–$ 4.90. Natural gas stays bullish above $ 3.50, aiming for $ 3.80–$ 4.00.

Brent ($ 64.56) has dipped and may continue to trade within the range of $ 67–$ 63 until a decisive breakout occurs.

WTI ($ 61.31) has also dipped and is likely to trade between $ 64–$ 60 for some time.

Gold ($ 3,302.50) dipped to $ 3,283 yesterday, but the outlook remains bullish with expectations for a move towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.38) tested a low of $ 32.88 yesterday. While it remains below $ 34, a range of $ 34–$ 32 is expected to hold for some time.

Copper ($ 4.7220) has fallen sharply to a low of $ 4.7295 yesterday. Immediate support can be seen near the current levels, and as long as this holds, we maintain our view of a rally towards $ 4.80–$ 4.90 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7580) remains bullish towards $ 3.80–$ 4.00 in the near term, while it stays above $ 3.50.

10:30 16:00 IN IIP
… 4.2% … Expected 3.3% … Previous 3.1%

DATA Yesterday
……………
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 94.5 … Expected 94 … Previous 93.6 …Actual 94.8

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
… Exp -0.5% … Expected -7.9% … Previous 7.6% …Actual -6.3%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 4.5% …Actual 4.1%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 87.1 … Expected – … Previous 86.0 …Actual 98.0