The Dollar Index is trading below 99 and the targets of 98-96 are kept open for now. The Euro above 1.14 can ascend towards 1.15/16. Similarly, EURINR if sustains above current levels, can extend the ongoing rise to 99-100 levels. EURJPY continues to trade within the 165-160 region. USDJPY has declined as anticipated and can fall back towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD and Pound are trading higher within the 0.6400/635-0.6550 and 1.34-1.36 range respectively. The USDCNY on a decisive break below 7.18 can test the lower targets of 7.17/15. The USDINR yesterday tested 86.0225 before closing lower. Need to see whether it breaks past 86.10 or continues to hold the immediate range of 86-85. Watch price action closely around current levels. The ECB meeting and US Trade Balance are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.86) slipped below 99 again after the lower than expected ADP Employment released at 37k (110k). The overall view continues to remain bearish to 98-96 for now.

EURUSD (1.1412) has risen past 1.14 again and if sustained, can further rise towards 1.15-1.16 in the near term. A better directional clarity could be expected after the ECB meeting scheduled today wherein a rate cut by 25 bps is anticipated.

EURINR (98.01) has achieved our initial target of 98 and can further extend it to 99-100 in the coming sessions as well. While the cross trades above 97-96, the overall view remains bullish.

EURJPY (163.06) continues to remain volatile within its 165-162/60 range, which is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (142.92) held the resistance near 144.5 region as a test to 144.39 was seen before the pair turned lower. While below 144-145, a fall towards 142 or even 140 looks likely to happen before halting.

USDCNY (7.1826) on a decisive break below 7.18, can get dragged towards 7.17-7.15. Only a strong break past 7.2250 can negate the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6493) is trading higher within the 0.6400/635-0.6550 region. While the resistance near 0.6550 holds, the pair can continue to hold the range.

Pound (1.3542) is slowly nearing the upper end of its immediate range of 1.34-1.36. Thereafter, a strong break past 1.36 will be needed to maintain the bullish trend. Else, an initial corrective fall back to 1.32 can be witnessed before the pair starts rising higher later in the medium term.

USDINR (85.8530) gave a break past its 85-86 range to the level of 86.0225 before closing lower. Price action around 86.00-86.10 will be needed to monitor closely as a decisive break past it can extend the rise to 86.25-86.50. Else, the range of 86-85 can continue to hold.

The US Treasury Yields have declined sharply after a data release yesterday showed a slowdown in job creation in the private sector. The yields have dipped below their supports. While this sustains, more fall can be seen going forward. The German yields remain lower and stable. There is room to dip further to test the support. The 10Yr GOI remains stable within its current range. The RBI meeting outcome is due tomorrow.

The US 10Yr (4.37%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) is broken now. While this break sustains, the yields can fall further to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (2.99%) yields remain lower and stable. AA fall to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) is likely to be seen. Resistance is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.2585%) remains stable around 6.25%. The 6.23%-6.3% range is intact. The bias is bearish to break 6.2% and see fall more. Resistance is in the 6.3%-6.35% region.

The Dow declined yesterday after a weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data. A rise to 43,000 and higher cannot be negated in the medium term, while above 41,000. However, the markets would await the NFP data release due on Friday. The Dax rose as the EU trade chief said that the talks with the US were advancing in the right direction. Near-term resistance is seen at 24500, which needs to be broken on the upside for further bullishness to emerge. Nifty needs to break above 24800 to gain bullishness towards 2500,0 while Nikkei and Shanghai could trade within the 37000-38500 and 3340-3400 range for the next couple of weeks at least.

The Dow (42427.74, -0.22%) declined yesterday after a weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data. Although the immediate upside has been capped at 42645 so far, we may expect a rise to 43000 and beyond, targeting 44000-46000 eventually. The downside for the medium term could be limited to 41000.

DAX (24276.48, +0.77%) has risen well as the EU trade chief said that the talks with the US were advancing in the right direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 24500, a break above which is needed for the index to rise further towards 25000. While below 24500, we may expect trade within the 24500-24000 range to hold.

Nifty (24620.20, +0.32%) has risen but the immediate upside could be capped at 24800 till a sharp break is seen on the upside. Watch price action near 24800, a break above which is needed for a rise to 25000 and beyond.

Nikkei (37707.15, -0.11%) has dipped yesterday but could have scope to test 38000-38500 before declining back to 37000. A broad range of 38500-37000 can hold for the next couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3372.99, -0.095%) has dipped slightly but overall remains within the 3400-3340 region. A slow rise to 3400 looks possible while above 3340.

Crude prices are declining as expected, pressured by news of potential Saudi output hikes, targeting $ 62–$ 60 (Brent), and $ 60–$ 58 (WTI). Gold has risen above $ 3,400 and is likely to head toward $ 3,450–$ 3,500, while Silver remains bullish despite a minor dip, targeting $ 35.50–$ 36. Copper continues its uptrend above $ 4.90 with potential to reach $ 5.00–$ 5.10. Natural gas saw a slight dip but retains a positive outlook towards $ 3.90–$ 4.10.

Brent ($ 64.74) is declining as expected after Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is open to additional crude production hikes in an effort to increase its market share. A further drop towards $ 62–$ 60 can be seen in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 62.64) has dipped in line with our expectations and could fall further towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,403.50) has risen above $ 3,400 as anticipated and may rise further towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 34.71) experienced a slight dip yesterday. Our outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 35.50–$ 36.00 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.9145) has moved above $ 4.90 as expected and can climb further towards $ 5.00–$ 5.10 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6910) has seen a slight decline, but our outlook remains biased towards a rise to $ 3.90–$ 4.10 in the coming weeks.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Expected 6.1A$ Bln … Previous 6.9A$ Bln

11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg
… Expected 2.15% … Previous 2.40%

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
… Expected -117.2$ Bln … Previous-140.5$ Bln

DATA Yesterday
……………

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Previous -26.5 …Actual -23.5

1:30 07:00 AU GDP
… Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.6% …Actual 0.2

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… 58.3 …Expected 61.2 … Previous 58.7 …Actual 58.8

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K
… Expected 110.0 … Previous 62.0 …Actual 37

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
… Expected 2.50 … Previous 2.75 …Actual 2.75