The ECB as widely expected lowered the refinancing rate by 25 bps, bringing it down to 2.15%. Dollar Index and Euro can target 98-96 and 1.15-1.16 respectively in the near term. EURINR, above 97/96 looks bullish towards 99-100 levels. EURJPY is trading higher within the 160-165 region. USDJPY below 145, can fall back towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD continues to trade within 0.6550-0.6400/635 range and Pound is hovering near the resistance at 1.36 region. The USDCNY on a decisive break below 7.18 can test the lower targets of 7.17/15. The USDINR is moving within 86.00-85.75 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity. The US NFP, Unemployment and Avg hrly Earnings data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.779) yesterday tested 98.35 before recovering a bit from there. We retain our view of seeing a fall towards 98-96 for now.

EURUSD (1.1412) rose to the high of 1.1494 before cooling down a bit. The target of 1.15-1.16 can be tested in the near term.

EURINR (98.2177) is gradually rising higher and while it trades above 97-96, the ongoing rise can extend to 99-100 as well.

EURJPY (164.47) is trading near the upper end of its range of 160-165. Still, a decisive break past 165 will be needed for the cross to turn bullish, else the range can continue to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (143.85) is moving within the 142.50-144.50 region since the last few sessions. Still, while it trades below 145, bias remains intact to see a fall towards a fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting.

USDCNY (7.1834) had slipped to the low of 7.1714 but could not sustain and rose past 7.18 again. While the pair trades below 7.20/22, the targets of 7.17/15 are kept alive for now.

Aussie (0.6495) is holding the range of 0.6550-0.6400/635, which is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.3567) tested the resistance near 1.36 before cooling down. Now, a strong break past 1.36 will be needed to maintain its bullishness. Else, a dip within 1.36-1.34 range or lower could be witnessed. Watch price action closely around current levels.

USDINR (85.8580) is holding below 86 for now within a narrow range of 86.00-85.75. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity. A confirmed fall below 85.75 can drag it further to 85.50, while a rise past 86 can take it higher towards 86.25-86.50. Wait and watch for now.

The US Treasury Yields remain below their support which was broken on Wednesday. That keeps them vulnerable to fall more from here. The US NFP and the Unemployment data release will be important to watch today. The German yields have risen back sharply from near their supports. It will have to be seen if they are getting a strong follow-through rise from here or not. The ECB cut their policy rates by 25 bps as expected and might pause the rate cuts for a while. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. The range is intact for now. The bias is negative to see a downside breakout of this range. The RBI meeting outcome is due today. Market expects a 25 bps rate cut today.

The US 10Yr (4.38%) and 30Yr (4.87%) Treasury yields remain below 4.4% and 4.9% respectively. That keeps them vulnerable for a fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.58%) and 30Yr (3.02%) yields have risen back sharply. The support at 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) has held well. But a strong follow-through rise above 2.65 (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) is needed to turn the outlook bullish and avoid falling back. Wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2465%) is coming down within its narrow 6.23%-6.3% range. The range is intact for now. But the bias remains negative to break 6.2% and fall to 6% over the medium term.

The Dow declined yesterday but may attempt to rise back while keeping the trade range of 41,000-4300/ intact. The markets await the NFP data release due today. The Dax is headed towards immediate resistance near 24500, above which further bullishness would emerge. Nifty needs to break above 24900 to gain bullishness towards 25000+ levels while Nikkei could trade within the 37000-38500 range for the next couple of weeks at least. Shanghai is heading towards the resistance of 3400 a break above which will be needed for frsh bullishness to set in.

The Dow (42319.74, -0.25%) declined yesterday but could attempt to rise again while trading within the broad 41000-43000 region.

DAX (24323.58, +0.19%) tested 24479 before closing lower. Watch price action near Immediate resistance at 24500, a break above which is needed for the index to rise further towards 25000 and higher. While below 24500, we may expect trade within the 24500-24000 range to hold.

Nifty (24750.90, +0.53%) tested 24899 yesterday before declining to close at 24750. A retest of 24900-25000 can be possible in the near term. Thereafter a sustained rise past 25000-25200 is needed for fresh bulls to kick in.

Nikkei (37688.47, +0.36%) continues to trade within the broad range of 38500-37000 which can hold for the next couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3390.90, +0.20%) has risen in line with our expectations within the 3400-3340 region. It would be important to see if the index manages to break past the immediate resistance at 3400 and head towards 3450-3500. Else, the index may fall back towards 3340 again.

Crude prices are trading within narrow ranges, awaiting a breakout. Gold is consolidating below $ 3,400, with potential to rise towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks. Silver surged to a 13-year high of $ 36.27, driven by concerns over China’s restrictions on rare-earth metal exports. With resistance near current levels, Silver could pull back to $ 35–$ 34 if the level holds, or target $ 40 or above if broken. Copper may experience a short-term dip before rebounding. Natural gas remains bullish above $ 3.60, with an upside target of $ 3.90–$ 4.00.

Brent ($ 65.20) has risen slightly but remains below $ 66. While it stays under this level, a narrow range of $ 66–$ 64 may persist for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

WTI ($ 63.18) also rose slightly, and a narrow range of $ 64–$ 62 is expected to hold for some time until a breakout takes place in either direction.

Gold ($ 3,386.90) touched a high of $ 3,427.70 before falling back below $ 3,400 yesterday. Our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 36.11) surged to a 13-year high of $ 36.27 yesterday, as expected. The rise was driven by recent news on China’s export restrictions on rare-earth metals, which are disrupting global supply chains. The crucial resistance near $ 36.20 is now being tested. While this holds, we may see a pullback towards $ 35–$ 34. However, a break above this level would open the way for higher targets above $ 40 in the long term.

Copper ($ 4.9235) tested a high of $ 5.05 as expected but closed lower at $ 4.9330 yesterday. A further corrective dip towards $ 4.85–$ 4.80 is possible in the near term before bouncing back to $ 5.00–$ 5.10 levels.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6860) continues to decline, but as long as it sustains above $ 3.60, our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 3.90–$ 4.00 in the near term.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 6.25%

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
…Expected 0.4 …Previous 0.3

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expected 0.2% …Previous -0.1%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
193K …Expected 130K …Previous 177K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.2%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.32

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expected 6.1A$ Bln …Previous 6.9A$ Bln …Actual 5.4A$ Bln

11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg
…Expected 2.15% …Previous 2.40% …Actual 2.15%

{12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expected -117.2$ Bln …Previous-140.5$ Bln …Actual-61.6$ Bln