The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran and warned of greater consequences if Iran retaliates. The Dollar Index needs to see a sustained rise past 99 to assume that a fresh rally has begun. Else, it is likely to fall back towards 98.00-97.50. Euro and EURINR can rise towards the resistance near 1.16/17 and 100.00-100.50 region respectively. EURJPY has risen as anticipated and if sustained, can test 170 in the near term. USDJPY indeed rose past 146 but is unable to sustain above it. If the fall continues further, the pair can fall back within 146-144/42 range. USDCNY can continue to trade between 7.17/16-7.20 region in the near term. The Aussie and Pound are likely to remain ranged within 0.6350-0.6550 and 1.33-1.36 regions respectively, before a break happens on either side. USDINR can either head towards 87.00-87.20 or fall below 86.50. Which will happen will have to be seen. US Existing Home Sales data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.99) tested 99.16 before coming down. The resistance near 99 is evident for now. While below it, there could be a scope to see a fall back towards 98.00-97.50. Only a sustained rise past 99 will presume that the downtrend has ended.

EURUSD (1.1502) had declined to 1.1451 but has recovered well from there. While above 1.14, the rise can get extended towards 1.16/17 in the near term.

EURINR (99.8282) is headed towards the crucial resistance between the 100.00-100.50 region which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the resistance breaks or a corrective fall back happens will have to be seen.

EURJPY (168.44) has met our initial target of 168 and while it sustains above 167, can extend it further to 170 in the coming sessions. Immediate resistance turned support is coming at 166.

Dollar-Yen (145.12) gave a break past 146, tested 146.76 before turning lower. Only a sustained rise past 146 can take it higher towards 149-150. Else if the fall continues further, USDJPY can get dragged back within its old range of 146-144/42.

USDCNY (7.1870) on Friday had slipped to the low of 7.1581 but has currently recovered well from there. For now, the immediate range of 7.17/16–7.20 is likely to hold for some time before a decisive break happens on either side.

Aussie (0.6424) has slipped below 0.645. Now, a test to either 0.64-0.635 can happen before it attempts to rise back towards previous levels. A broad range of 0.635-0.655 can hold in the near term.

While Pound (1.3432) holds the support between 1.34/33, a bounce back towards 1.3500–1.3600 is possible. A broad range of 1.3300–1.3600 could hold for some time.

The Iran-Israel conflict and the intervention from the US is likely to put the upward pressure on USDINR (86.5570) . While above 86.50, the pair can target 87.00-87.20 in the near term. Only if the USDINR dips below 86.50, can test the lower levels of 86.25-86.00, thereby delaying the anticipated fall.

The US Treasury yields remain stable at the middle of their range. The yields can sustain in the range for some more time. But the bias is negative to see a downside break of this range eventually. The German Yields remain stable. The upside is capped from here. The yields are likely to fall back in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains higher near the upper end of its range. We expect the yield to break the range on the upside eventually and rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.40%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury yields remain stable and retains its 4.3%-4.55% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5% (30Yr) range. While the yields can oscillate in the range for some more time, the bias remains bearish to see a downside break of this range eventually and fall to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and 30Yr (2.97%) yields remain stable. We expect the yields to reverse lower and fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr) again. Resistance is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3796%) stays higher within the 6.3%-6.4% range. We retain our bullish view to see a break above 6.4% and rise to 6.5% eventually.

Equities could decline following the US bombing on Iran as the market await the next steps from Iran. Dow and Dax had closed higher on Friday but could face a decline today. Failure to hold above 42000 and 23000 in the near term can drag them down to 41000 and 22500, respectively. Nifty could remain ranged within 24400/800-25200 for some time while Nikkei can trade within 38500-37000 region. Shanghai needs to sustain above 3350 to move back towards 3380/3400. Else can decline to 3300 soon. Watch price action at 3350.

The Dow (42206.82, +0.083%) closed above 42000 on Friday but could see a decline as markets await next steps by Iran following the US bombing there. The price could extend fall to 41500-41000 on a decisive break below 42000.

DAX (23350.55, +1.27%) rose well on Friday while above 23000 but could have scope to fall to 22500 in the near term before rebounding to 23500+ levels in the medium term.

Nifty (25112.40, +1.29%) rose sharply to levels above 25100 on Friday but while below 25200, we may expect a dip to 25000-24800 again in the near term unless a decisive break past 25200 is seen.

Nikkei (38183.02, -0.57%) is likely to trade within 38500-37000 in the coming sessions with uncertainty looming around the Iran-Israel war.

Shanghai (3358.41, -0.044%) is trading above 3350 for now but a break lower, if seen can drag it down to 3300 in the medium term. Watch price action near 3350.

Crude prices surged amid heightened Middle East tensions, with Brent and WTI testing key resistance levels that, if breached, could push prices to $ 85–$ 90 and $ 80–$ 85 respectively. Gold remains weak below $ 3,400, with potential to fall to $ 3,300. Silver found support near $ 35 and may rebound to $ 36.50–$ 37. Copper is range-bound between $ 4.75–$ 5.00, while Natural Gas holds above $ 3.80 and may rise towards $ 4.10–$ 4.20.

Brent ($ 78.93) opened higher at $ 80.29 due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with the US bombing Iran’s nuclear sites and Iran’s parliament approving the closure of the world’s most critical oil corridor, the Strait of Hormuz. These developments are putting upward pressure on oil prices and could potentially lead to a breakout above resistance, targeting $ 85–$ 90 in the coming weeks. However, if the resistance holds, a corrective dip towards $ 76–$ 74 might be seen before any further rise.

WTI ($ 75.84) opened higher at the immediate resistance level of $ 78 and is currently pulling back. The overall bias remains positive for a potential breakout above this resistance, which could lead to a rise towards $ 80–$ 85 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if the resistance holds, a fall towards $ 72–$ 70 is possible.

Gold ($ 3,370.50) is trading below $ 3,400. While it remains below this level, further decline towards $ 3,350–$ 3,300 is possible in the near term.

Silver ($ 35.90) fell sharply to a low of $ 35.57 on Friday, contrary to expectations of a rise. Immediate support is seen near $ 35. As long as this holds, a bounce back towards $ 36.50–$ 37.00 is expected in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.8050) is expected to trade within the range of $ 4.75–$ 5.00 for some time until a decisive breakout occurs.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9130) tested the immediate resistance at $ 4.1480 and closed lower at $ 3.84 on Friday. While above $ 3.80, it can bounce back towards $ 4.10–$ 4.20 in the near term.

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3957k …Previous 4000k

DATA Last Friday

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-18.5 Expectation -19.0 Previous-20.0 …Actual -18

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
2.9 Expectation 3.6 Previous 2.8 …Actual 3.4

12:30 01:00 US Philifed Index
Expectation -1.2 Previous -4.0 …Actual -4.0