The Dollar Index can trade within its immediate range of 96-98/99 for some time before a break happens. A fall below 96 is not anticipated for now. The Euro is trading near 1.18 region. If the pair falls further, can test the support near 1.17. Overall, the targets of 1.19-1.20 are kept alive for now. EURINR needs to see a decisive rise past 101 to turn bullish in the near term. EURJPY is trading within the narrow region of 168-170. USDJPY needs to sustain above 144, else it can get dragged towards 142-140. USDCNY has deeper support at 7.15/14, while it holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 7.18 or higher. The Aussie and Pound continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR is trading within a narrow range of 85.75-85.45. Overall, while below 86, the targets of 85.25 and 85.00 are kept open for now. US NFP, Unemployment and the Avg hrly Earnings data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (96.76) initially rose to the level of 97.15 after the trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam before coming down due to lower ADP employment at -33k. For now, a range of 96-98/99 can hold for some time. A fall below 96 is not anticipated as of now. A strong rise past 98-99 will be needed to assume that the downtrend has ended.

EURUSD (1.1803) is hovering near the 1.18 mark. Immediate support is coming around 1.17 level, thereby suggesting limited downside. While the support holds, the target of 1.19-1.20 is kept alive for now.

EURINR (101.007) had dipped to the low of 100.65 but has risen back again. Currently it is trading near the 101 level, a decisive break past which can take it towards 102 and higher. Immediate support at 100.

EURJPY (169.48) is trading within the narrow region of 168-170. The cross needs to see a break past 170 to head towards the upper resistance at 175. Till then, the range can continue to hold.

Dollar-Yen (143.75) tested 144.25 but could not sustain and slipped below 144 again. The pair needs to hold 144 to head towards 146 or higher. Else, it can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 142-140.

USDCNY (7.1631) is gradually rising higher. Whale above 7.15/14, the pair is likely to rise back towards 7.18 or even 7.20 as well.

Aussie (0.6567) faces immediate resistance at 0.66 and while it holds, the pair can continue to trade within the 0.645-0.660 region.

Pound (1.3629) had slipped sharply to the low of 1.3562 on economic concerns. Currently, it has recovered a bit from there and while above 1.35, it can attempt to rise back towards 1.38 in the coming sessions. Overall, it can continue to trade within the 1.35-1.38 region in the near term.

USDINR (85.6050) can continue to hold the range of 85.45–85.75 for some time, before a breakout happens on either side. The lower targets of 85.25-85.00 are kept alive for now while the USDINR trades below 86.00.

The US Treasury yields have inched up further. But there is limited room on the upside. We expect the yields to reverse lower from their resistance and fall going forward. The US Unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have risen, breaking above their resistance. This is contrary to our expectation. While this break sustains, a further rise is possible. That will negate our earlier bearish view. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its range as expected. The range is likely to remain intact for some more time.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields have moved up further slightly. But the upside will be capped at 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr). The bearish view is intact to see a fall back to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and 30Yr (3.11%) yields have risen above 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. While this holds, a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) is possible. That in turn will negate our earlier bearish view of seeing a fall back to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3446%) has dipped further and is coming down towards the lower end of the 6.3%-6.4% range. The range is likely to remain intact. We retain our bullish bias to see a bullish breakout above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually.

The Dow Jones dipped on softer ADP employment data. The Dow can see a corrective dip to 44000 in the near term but overall uptrend remains intact. Dax has risen slightly and can target 24500-25000 while above 23500. Nifty tested 25378 yesterday but needs to sustain above 25400 today to rebound towards 25600 and higher. Nikkei and Shanghai trades lower today and could see some stability in the near term before an eventual rise.

The Dow (44484.42, -0.024%) has dipped slightly on softer ADP data but continues to hold the uptrend. The markets await the NFP data tomorrow which if also turns out softer can lead to a corrective dip to 44000 or slightly lower before again resuming to rise in the medium term. The medium-term target of 45000-46000 remains intact.

DAX (23790.11, +0.49%) has risen slightly after the decline seen over the last 3-sessions. While above 23500, the index can rise towards 24500-25000 eventually.

Nifty (25453.40, -0.35%) tested 24378, breaking below our mentioned 25400, but has managed to close slightly higher. While the support holds, we may expect a bounce back towards 25600 or higher. Else, a break below 25400, if seen can take it sharply down towards 25200-25000.

Nikkei (39696.28, -0.17%) has risen and while above 39500, it can rise further towards 41000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3448.44, -0.18%) has dipped. While below resistance near 3465, we may expect trade in the 3465-3415 region for the next few sessions.

Crude prices are rising amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent eyeing $ 70–$ 72 and WTI targeting $ 68–$ 70. Gold and Silver continue to strengthen, heading towards $ 3,450 and $ 37.50 respectively. Copper has broken higher and is aiming for $ 5.25-5.30. Natural gas is expected to rise towards $ 3.55-3.60 in the near term.

Brent ($ 68.55) tested a high of $ 69.21 after Iran cut off communications with the IAEA, raising concerns that the US and/or Israel may launch additional attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. A further rise towards $ 70–$ 72 is likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.89) rebounded to $ 67.58 as expected and may move further up towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,356.20) is climbing as anticipated and could soon rise to $ 3,400–$ 3,450. A broad range of $ 3,250–$ 3,450 is likely to hold in the medium term unless a breakout occurs on either side.

Silver ($ 36.66) has risen as expected and may extend rise towards $ 37.00–$ 37.50 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.1855) broke above $ 5.15 and tested a high of $ 5.21 yesterday. It may continue its bullish momentum towards $ 5.25–$ 5.30 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4930) bounced back to a high of $ 3.52 yesterday, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 3.55–$ 3.60 is likely in the near term.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 5.08 …Previous 5.41

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
58.7 …Expectations 60.7 …Previous 58.8

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
0.0 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
…Expectations 50.0 …Previous 49.7

12:30 18:00 US NFP
157 …Expectation 120 …Previous 139

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.3 …Previous 4.2

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.39

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -69.9 …Previous -61.6

DATA Yesterday

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -23.5 …Actual -29.3

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
6.2 …Expectation 6.2 …Previous 6.2 …Actual 6.3

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectation 105.0 …Previous 37.0 …Actual -33

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 46.1 …Actual 45.6