The Dollar Index tested 98.95 before turning lower. The range of 99-96 is holding well for now, but we maintain our bullish bias towards 101. The Euro and EURINR are attempting to rise back but while below 1.17 and 101, the view remains intact to see a fall towards 1.15-1.14 and 99-98 respectively. EURJPY above 172 has a scope to rise towards 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY have the scope to rise towards 150 and 7.20 or even higher levels, while they trade above 147/46 and 7.16 respectively. The Aussie and Pound have bounced a little but the upside is likely to be capped at 0.655-0.660 and 1.35-1.36 respectively. USDINR has risen past 86.05 and if sustained, can head towards 86.15-86.25 or even 86.50 in the coming weeks. US Housing starts data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.472) is unable to see a break past 99 which will be needed to bring 101 into picture. For now, the immediate range of 99-97/96 is holding well but bias remains positive to see a rise towards 101 eventually..

EURUSD (1.1610) had indeed slipped below 1.16, tested 1.1556 but later recovered as well. Immediate resistance is coming at 1.17, below which the downside targets of 1.15-1.14 is kept open for now..

EURINR (99.9954) faces immediate resistance at 100.50 and higher at 101.00. While the resistances hold, a fall to 99-98 looks likely to happen.

EURJPY (172.61) can target 175-176 while above 172. Only a break below 172 if seen can drag it initially to 170 before attempting to rise back later.

Dollar-Yen (148.451) tested 149.09 before cooling down a bit. Still, while the immediate support between 147-146 holds, the rise can get extended towards 150 and higher.

USDCNY (7.1806) looks stable above 7.18 and if sustained, can head towards 7.20 in the near term. Overall, the view remains bullish above 7.16.

Aussie (0.6507) has recovered a bit from the low of 0.645, but even if the rise extends further, can be limited to the resistance between 0.655-0.660 region. The target of 0.64 and lower levels is kept alive until further clarity.

Any rise from current levels in Pound (1.3435) could be limited to 1.35-1.36 max. Eventually, it is likely to fall back towards 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (85.9540) tested a high of 86.0925. If the ongoing rise sustains, it can get extended towards 86.15–86.25 in the near term and eventually towards the immediate resistance at 86.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. But support can limit the downside and keep the outlook positive. The yields can rise back going forward. The German yields are coming down to test their support. We expect the support to hold and the yields to bounce back to keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI has come down towards the lower end of its narrow range. We expect the range to remain intact and the yield to rise within it.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and 30Yr (5%) Treasury yields have dipped further. However, the bias remains positive. The yields can rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) while they remain above 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95%-4.9% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.19%) yields have come down further. The support at 2.65%-2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr) can be tested. After that the yields can rise back to resume their upmove and target 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3567%) has dipped within the narrow 6.35%-6.4% range. While this range holds, a bounce is possible from here. 6.3%-6.4% is the broader trading range. We remain positive to see an upside breakout above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually.

The Dow Jones has risen after a better than expected Retail sales data. While above 43500, there is scope to test 45000 soon. Thereafter it has to be seen if he index can manage to rise further or decline from there. Dax has risen sharply on news of the US-EU natural gas deal. Dax can initially test 24500, a break above which if seen can take it to 25000. Nifty may continue to trade within the 25000-25400 range for now. Nikkei has tested the upper level of our expected 39000-40000 range and if 40000 holds well, Nikkei may fall towards 39500 in the next few sessions. Shanghai has risen well and can target 3550-3600 while above 3500.

The Dow (44484.49, +0.52%) rose after a better than expected Retail sales data released yesterday. Currently the index is holding above the support at 43500 and could have scope to rise to 45000. Our expected broad range of 43500-45000 can hold for the near term.

DAX (24370.93, +1.51%) rose on optimism arising out of the US-EU natural gas deal to buy natural gas from the US and that the looming 30% tariff on Europe could be reduced in further negotiations. While above 24000, Dax can attempt to rise to 24500 initially, a further break above which can target 25000 eventually.

Nifty (25111.45, -0.40%) declined yesterday but is likely to continue trade within the 25000-25400 region for a few more sessions with the possibility of an eventual rise in the medium term. Only a break below 25000, if seen can trigger a deeper fall in the medium term, contrary to our current expectations.

Nikkei (39807.52, -0.23%) tested 40087 today before declining to the day’s low of 39806. Having tested the upper target of 39000-40000 region that we have been mentioning in the past few editions, the index will have to hold below 40000 to decline back to levels of 39500-39000 again. Else an eventual rise above 4000/ is needed in the next few sessions to turn further bullish.

Shanghai (3526.99, +0.29%) has risen well and could head towards 3550-3600 in the coming days while above 3500.

Crude prices continues to trade firm above key support levels, with potential to rise towards $ 72–$ 74 (Brent) and $ 70–$ 72 (WTI). Precious metals remain bullish, with Gold eyeing $ 3,400–$ 3,450 and Silver targeting $ 40–$ 41. Copper holds above $ 5.50, with chances of a bounce to $ 5.65–$ 5.70 unless it breaks lower. Natural gas stays strong above $ 3.50, supporting a move towards $ 3.65–$ 3.70.

Brent ($ 69.50) has risen in line with our expectations, reaching a high of $ 69.67 yesterday. Our outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 72–$ 74 in the near term, as long as it holds above the immediate support at $ 68.

WTI ($ 66.20) bounced back to $ 67.69, as expected. While it remains above $ 66, our view stays intact for a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,347.60) continues to look bullish towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks, while it sustains above $ 3,300.

Silver ($ 38.56) has bounced back from its immediate support as anticipated and can rise further towards $ 40–$ 41 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.52) is holding above $ 5.50. A sustained break below this level is required to trigger a decline towards $ 5.40–$ 5.30. Otherwise, a bounce towards $ 5.65–$ 5.70 could be seen in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5230) has retreated from yesterday’s high of $ 3.6290. While it stays above $ 3.50, our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 3.65–$ 3.70 in the near term.

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
3.7 …Expectation 3.3 …Previous 3.4

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
1312 …Expectation 1290 …Previous 1256

DATA YESTERDAY

1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectation 21.0 …Previous -2.5 …Actual 2.0

2:00 07:30 CN GDP
…Expectation 5.2 …Previous 5.4 …Actual 5.2

5:30 11:00 CN Retail Sales
…Expectation 5.5 …Previous 6.4 …Actual 4.8

5:30 11:00 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectation 5.6 …Previous 5.8 …Actual 6.8

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectation 4.6 …Previous 4.6 …Actual 4.7

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.3 …Expectation 2.0 …Previous 2.0 …Actual 2.0

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
-0.7 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous -0.9 …Actual 0.6

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectation 0.4 …Previous -4.0 …Actual 15.9

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Expectation 55.3 …Previous -7.8 …Actual