The Dollar Index has declined further within its 99-96 range but we maintain our bullish bias towards 101. The Euro and EURINR tested 1.17 and 101 respectively. Even if the rise extends further, it can be limited to 1.18 and 102 respectively. EURJPY above 172 has a scope to rise towards 175 in the near term. USDJPY is trading within 149-147 region but the target of 150 and higher is kept alive. USDCNY is nearing the support around 7.16-7.15 which can be tested soon. The Aussie and Pound have risen slightly but face immediate resistance at 0.66 and 1.35/36 respectively. USDINR has risen well so far and is likely to test 86.50 in the near term.

Dollar Index (97.913) extended the fall to 97.70 yesterday. The downside is expected to be limited to 97-96 max. Overall, a range of 99-96 can hold for some time, but bias remains positive to see a break on the upside eventually.

EURUSD (1.1690) and EURINR (100.7270) tested 1.17 and 101 respectively. Still, while below 1.18 and 102, retain our view of seeing a fall towards 1.15-1.14 and 99-98 respectively.

EURJPY (172.52) needs to see a sustained rise past 173 to bring 175 into picture. Else, a break below 172 if seen can drag it back to 170.

Dollar-Yen (147.54) has been moving within the 149-147 region since the last few sessions, but while the support near 147/46 holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 150 and higher.

USDCNY (7.1698) is coming off and can test the support near 7.16 as well. Upon testing, it is likely to bounce back again. Broadly, a range of 7.20-7.16/15 is likely to persist for some time.

Aussie (0.6523) and Pound (1.3486) rose well yesterday but now faces immediate resistances at 0.66 and 1.35/36 respectively. While these resistances hold, both the pairs are likely to fall back towards 0/650-0.645 and 1.34 or lower.

USDINR (86.1950) tested 85.3525 before coming down. The target of 86.50 can be tested in the near term before getting peaked out.

The US Treasury yields have come down further and are close to their support. We expect the support to hold and the yields to reverse higher. A slight extended fall is also a possibility before the expected reversal happens. We have to wait and see. The German yields have come down sharply ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. There is support near current levels which we expect to hold and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain stable near the lower end of its narrow range.

The US 10Yr (4.38%) and 30Yr (4.94%) Treasury yields have come down into their 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95%-4.9% (30Yr) support zone. We expect this support zone to hold and the yields to reverse higher targeting 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) on the upside. An extended fall to 4.3% and 4.85% is also possible before the above-mentioned reversal happens.

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and 30Yr (3.14%) yields have come down sharply. They are at their 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr) support. We expect this support to hold and the yields to reverse higher to keep the bullish view intact of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3528%) hovers around the lower end of the 6.35%-6.4% narrow range. A bounce from here will keep the range intact. Broadly, 6.3%-6.4% is the wider trading range which has to be broken in either side to get clarity on the next move. We remain positive to see a breakout above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5%.

The Dow Jones can remain ranged between 44000-45000, while the DAX rose yesterday and needs to break and sustain above 24500 to move higher towards 25000. Else, the Dax can decline to 24000. Nifty moved up yesterday and is moving close to the resistance region of 25200-25250. A break above this resistance region is needed for a rally towards 25400+; else can face a corrective decline towards 24800/600 again. Nikkei is likely to trade within the 39000-41000 range for a couple of weeks. Shanghai looks strong and could soon test 3600-36500 on the upside.

The Dow (44323.07, -0.043%) tested 44601 before declining to close lower yesterday. We may continue to see trade between 44000 and 45000 for the near term. Thereafter, a break on either side would confirm further directional clarity.

DAX (24307.80, +0.075%) tested 24191.63 before rising to close higher. A break above 24500 is needed for a rise to 25000 in the medium term. A broad range of 24000-25000 can hold for the next 1-2 weeks.

Nifty (25090.70, +0.49%) rose yesterday, moving closer to the 25200-25250 resistance region. A break above the mentioned resistance region is needed for fresh upside momentum towards 25400 and higher; else, a decline back towards 24800-24600 can come into the picture.

Nikkei (39909.87, +0.23%) seems to be moving up slowly. There is scope for a test of 41000, while above support near 39000. The broad range of 39000-41000 may hold for a few more weeks before a decisive breakout is seen on either side of this range.

Shanghai (3557.86, -0.054%) has picked up rising momentum in the last few sessions and is headed towards the 13-day candle resistance near 3600-3650.

Brent and WTI have broken key supports at $ 69 and $ 66 respectively, dragging prices lower on expectations of increased supply, with more downside likely. Gold and Silver are moving higher in line with our bullish view, targeting $ 3,500 and $ 41 respectively. Copper is inching up towards $ 5.80, while Natural gas has dipped on cooler weather forecasts but may find support near $ 3.10 before bouncing back.

Brent ($ 68.69) has broken below the immediate support at $ 69, contrary to our expectations, as the outlook for larger crude exports from Iraq may boost global oil supply and is putting pressure on prices. A further decline towards $ 67–$ 65 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.41) has broken below the immediate support at $ 66, also contrary to our expectations, and fell to a low of $ 65.21 yesterday. A continued fall towards $ 64–$ 62 can be seen in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,402.60) has risen in line with our expectations and could move higher towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 39.11) bounced back sharply to $ 39.38 as expected and can rise further towards $ 40–$ 41 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.6145) is gradually moving higher and can test $ 5.70–$ 5.80 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.32) dropped to a 1-week low of $ 3.2870 yesterday due to forecasts of cooler US temperatures, which could reduce demand from electricity providers for air-conditioning. Immediate support is at $ 3.20–$ 3.10, which may be tested soon. While that holds, a bounce back is possible.

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3945 …Previous 4030

DATA Last Friday

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
3.7 …Expectation 3.3 …Previous 3.4 …Actual 3.23

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
1312 …Expectation 1290 …Previous 1256 …Actual 1327