The Dollar Index has recovered a bit but overall the range of 96-99 remains intact for now. The Euro and EURINR are coming off but a confirmed break below 1.17 and 100.50 will be needed to negate the rise to 1.19 and 102 respectively. EURJPY has risen past 173 and if sustained, can head towards 175-176. USDJPY bounced well from the support near 146 and has a scope to extend the rise to 149 in the near term. USDCNY has moved up from the low of 7.1491 and while it sustains, a test to 7.18 can happen in the near term. Broadly, a range of 7.14-7.18/20 can hold for a while. The Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.6650-0.6450 and 1.36-1.34 range respectively for some time. USDINR has crucial resistance at 86.50/60, below which we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 86 in the coming sessions. US Durable goods data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.563) tested 97.10 before recovering a bit from there. The maximum downside is expected to be limited to 96. Overall, the range of 96-99 can hold for some time before a break happens on the upside eventually.

EURUSD (1.1742) and EURINR (101.5767) are coming off from 1.1788 and 101.8535 respectively. Still, a decisive break below 1.17/1650 and 100.50 will be needed to rule out the possibility of the pairs heading towards 1.19 and 102.

EURJPY (173.07) has finally risen past 173 and if sustained, can head towards 175-176 as well. Failure to do so can pull it back within its 173-171 range. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Dollar-Yen (147.43) has recovered well from the low of 145.85 and further if the rise sustains, then the pair can attempt to rise back towards 149 in the near term. A narrow range of 146-149 can hold for a while.

USDCNY (7.1592) had initially slipped to the low of 7.1491 before eventually rising back. While above 7.15/14, the pair can rise back towards 7.18. Broadly, a range of 7.14-7.18/20 is likely to persist for a while.

Aussie (0.6608) failed in its attempt to sustain its rise past 0.66 and started coming off from 0.6625 itself. Pound (1.3583) on the other hand held the resistance at 1.36 and has declined a bit from there. An immediate range of 0.6650-0.6450 and 1.36-1.34 is likely to persist for a while before a break happens.

USDINR (86.4210) had initially witnessed a low of 86.24 but later the pair recovered as well. Still, the resistance near 86.50/60 holds, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 86.00 in the near term. Only if a break past 86.60 is seen, can open the doors for 87.00-87.50.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. While they sustain above their immediate support, a further rise is possible in the coming days. The Germany yields have risen further. That continues to keep intact our bullish view. More rise is on the cards. The ECB kept the rates unchanged yesterday. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the narrow range as expected. The range remains intact for now.

The US 10Yr (4.39%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields remain higher but stable. While above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr), the chances are alive to see a rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.19%) yields have risen further. That keeps intact the view of seeing .8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside. 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr) are key supports that have held very well.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3796%) is rising as expected within the narrow 6.35%-6.4% range. The range is intact for now. We retain our bullish bias to see a break above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually.

The Dow Jones declined from 44912 yesterday, but could limit its fall to 44500 and rise back towards 45000 in the coming day,s while Dax has moved up and can test resistance at 25000 before facing a rejection from there in the coming week. Nifty traded in the negative yesterday, but while below resistance at 25250, we may look for a range of 25250-24800 to hold for the very near term. Nikkei and Shanghai are likely to hold above 41000 and 3600 to rise towards 42000 and 3650-3700 eventually.

The Dow (44693.91, -0.70%) tested a high of 44912.27 before sharply declining back to close at 44693 yesterday. The high of 45016 seen a day before could have been a false spike, as the resistance near 45000 seems to have held well. However, the fall in the index could be limited to 44500 before a rise back above 45000 is seen again in the coming week. Only a break below 44000 will bring in some bearish sentiment for the near term. Else, a ranged to bullish view can be seen.

DAX (24295.93, +0.23%) closed higher yesterday. It can rally to 25000 in the near term before facing a rejection from there again in the coming week.

Nifty (25062.10, -0.63%) traded in the negative yesterday as IT and FMCG stocks fell after a disappointing earnings release for Q1. 25250 continues to hold as an important resistance for the near term, below which a scope of fall to 24800 remains alive. A broad range of 25250-24800 can hold for the next few sessions.

Nikkei (41627.68, -0.49%) has dipped slightly but is likely to hold above 41000 and eventually 42000 or higher in the coming days. Supports are seen near 41000 and 40000, respectively, above which view is likely to remain bullish.

Shanghai (3602.24, -0.097%) has also dipped slightly but overall remains bullish for a potential rise to 3650-3700 in the coming weeks.

Crude prices have risen slightly and need to sustain above near-term support levels at $ 64 (WTI) and $ 68 (Brent) to slowly move up in the coming weeks. Gold has been narrowing within a possible triangle chart pattern, within which a fall to $ 3350 could be followed by a sharp rally in the medium term, suggesting a breakout above $ 3450 in the coming week. Silver is bullish towards $ 40/41 while above $ 38/38.50. Copper is headed towards resistance at $ 6, from where a decline looks possible in the coming days. Natural Gas has risen well but while below resistance near $ 3.30/20, bearishness could remain intact.

Brent ($ 69.24) has moved up well from the support region of $ 68/69 and while the rise sustains, the price can slowly attempt to move towards $ 70-72 in the next 1-2 weeks. Failure to hold above $ 68 can drag it lower towards $ 66.

WTI ($ 66.09) has risen and can test $ 67-68 in the near term, but the $ 64 level looks crucial for the near term. While above $ 64, the price could remain in a range of $ 64-68 for some time.

Gold ($ 3370.90) has been falling sharply from the resistance at $ 3450 as expected and could test support at $ 3350 in the next few sessions before bouncing back towards $ 3450 or higher soon. The price seems to be forming a triangle chart pattern whose last leg could end at $ 3350, suggesting upcoming bullishness in the medium term to break above $ 3450 and rally to $ 3,500–$ 3,600 eventually. Only a break below $ 3350, if seen will prove our bullish view wrong.

Silver ($ 39.37) is likely to rise towards $ 40–$ 41 in the near term, while above $ 38-38.50.

Copper ($ 5.8145) is also rising well, as expected and could soon test resistance near $ 6, from where a corrective dip can be possible.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1480) rose after the weekly EIA inventory rose less than expected by 23bcf against the market expectations of 27bcf for the week ended 18th July 2025. This is below the 5-year average of 30bcf for this time of the year, according to news sources. continues to fall as anticipated and is approaching key support around $ 3.20–$ 3.10. While this holds, a bounce back remains possible. However, the gains could be limited as the current hot temperatures in the eastern half of US are expected to dissipate next week, impacting the demand for natural gas. On the charts, the price will have to break above 3.20/3.30 to bring some hopes of bullishness for the medium term. Else while below 3.30, the prices can again fall in the near term.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectation -19 …Previous -18

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.7 …Expectation 89.2 …Previous 88.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
85.9 …Expectation 86.7 …Previous 86.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
87.8 …Expectation 91.2 …Previous 90.7

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expectation -10.3 …Previous 16.4

DATA Yesterday

11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg
2.15 …Expectation 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual 2.15

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
671 …Expectation 651 …Previous 623 …Actual 627