Weaker NFP, new tariffs by Trump on various countries and firing of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer led the Dollar Index to fall sharply to 98.60. Currently it is holding well above 98 and if sustained, can head back towards 100-101 as well. The Euro and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively for some time before a break is seen. EURJPY, if held above 171, can attempt to test 173-174. USDJPY and USDCNY both came down sharply as well along with DXY. Still while the support at 147 holds in USDJPY, it can target 149/50. While USDCNY is back within its 7.20-7.15 range. The Aussie and Pound have bounced well but any further rise from current levels can be limited to 0.65/66 and 1.34 max. Eventually both the pairs are likely to turn lower in the medium term. USDINR below 87.75 can test 87 in the near term.

Lower NFP at 73k (108K) followed by the uncertainty due to tariffs ramped up the market expectations of a rate cut by FED. As a result, Dollar Index (98.777) slipped sharply to the low of 98.60 on Friday. Currently DXY is attempting to rise back and while the support near 98-97 holds, it can head back towards 100-101 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1574) contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 1.13, rose sharply from 1.1391 itself and tested 1.1596 on Dollar weakness. Now, an interim resistance is coming at 1.16 and higher at 1.18, while it holds; the EURUSD can consolidate within the 1.18-1.14 region for some time before a break is seen.

Similarly, EURINR (100.8814) rose from the low of 99.58 and tested 101.60 before cooling down. The EURINR has crucial resistance coming at 102, below which it can continue to trade within the 102-100/99 region for a while.

EURJPY (170.98) needs to decisively break below 170 to test the deeper support at 168. Else, while above 170/71 the target of 173-174 is kept alive for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.80) was anticipated to test 152 but it turned lower from 150.92 itself. The fall tested 147.06 before recovering a bit from there. Now, as long as the pair trades above 147/46, a bounce back towards 149-150 looks likely in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1843) failed to sustain its rise past 7.20 and started coming off from 7.2131 itself. Currently it is back within its old range of 7.20-7.15 which can persist in the near term before a break happens on either side.

Aussie (0.6476) limited the downside to 0.6419 and started rising. An immediate resistance is coming at 0.65. Need to see whether it holds and pushes the pair to 0.64 or even lower or extends the rise towards 0.66. While the support near 0.64 holds, the pair can consolidate between 0.64-0.65/66 region.

Pound (1.3279) has bounced from the interim support near 1.3141 but even if the rise sustains, can be limited to 1.34. Eventually it is likely to turn lower in the medium term.

USDINR (87.1510) is trading lower on the NDF and while below 87.75, a fall to 87.00 or even 86.50 can happen in the coming weeks before attempting to bounce back later.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday after the jobs data. A weak job number for July and a sharp lower revision for the previous two months had triggered this fall in the yields. A further fall from here can drag them lower in the coming days. The rise that we have been expecting stands negated now. The German Yields remain stable. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. It can remain stuck in a narrow range within the broad one.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields have declined sharply. A further fall below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) can drag the yields down to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr). The rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) that we have been expecting is negated now.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.18%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15%-3.10% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.3680%) remains stable. It may remain stuck in a narrow range of 6.35%-6.4% within the broad 6.3%-6.4% range.

Equity indices fell sharply after the NFP data release on Friday and the fresh trade tariff updated by Trump that indicates a weaker labor data over the last few months and raised sentiments over a possible rate cut by FED next month. The Dow Jones and Dax have crucial supports near 43000 and 23000 which need to hold for a decent pull back else that can trigger further decline for the medium term. Asia-Pac also trades lower. Nifty can test crucial support near 24400 while Nikkei and Shanghai also have similar supports near 40000 and 3550 which need to hold to prevent further decline. Watch price action near crucial supports on all the indices.

The Dow (43588.58, -1.23%) declined to close lower on Friday after the NFP expanded much lesser than expected and previous month’s figures were revised down sharply, indicating a weakening labor market over the last few months. Overnight updated tariffs rolled out by Trump ranging from 10-41% for various countries added further to the sentiment. The dow has decent support at 43000 which if breaks can take it down to 42000 where a pause can be expected for a rebound in the medium term.

DAX (23425.97, -2.66%) also declined sharply breaking below our expected 24000, after confirmation of a 15% tariff on the EU imports. There is now a crucial support at 23000 on the charts which if holds can produce a bounce back to higher levels. Failure to hold above 23000 would trigger a sharp decline in the index in the coming days.

Nifty (24565.35, -0.82%) has declined well below 24600 and has a fair possibility to test support at 24400 before pausing. Failure to hold above 24400 will make the index vulnerable and trigger a fresh decline for the medium term. Watch price action near 24400.

Nikkei (40038.78, -1.86%) needs to bounce from crucial support at 40000 to hold the uptrend from May-25 else can decline sharply to 39000.

Shanghai (3566.88, +0.19%) is also similarly headed towards support at 3550, which needs to hold to push the price back up else can make it vulnerable to decline towards 3500-3450.

Crude prices fell sharply on Friday amid concerns over global energy demand triggered by US tariff policies and weak economic data, with Brent and WTI likely to test supports at $ 68 and $ 66 respectively before a possible rebound. Gold surged towards $ 3416.90 and may target $ 3450, with a breakout above this level signaling further gains to $ 3600–$ 3700. Silver remains bearish towards $ 36.00–$ 35.50, Copper continues to face downside risks towards $ 4.20–$ 4.00, and Natural gas is expected to decline towards $ 2.70 despite trading above $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 69.31) sold off sharply on Friday, driven by concerns over global energy demand due to President Trump’s tariff policies and weaker-than-expected US economic data, including July payrolls and the ISM manufacturing report. Immediate support is seen near $ 68, which may be tested in the near term. While this level holds, a rebound towards $ 72–$ 74 is possible in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 67.00) reversed to $ 67.05 on Friday, contrary to our expectations of a rise. Immediate support is at $ 66, which may be tested in the near term. As long as this level holds, a bounce towards $ 70–$ 72 is likely.

Gold ($ 3401.9) bounced back sharply to $ 3416.90 on Friday, as expected. A further rise towards its immediate resistance at $ 3450 is possible in the near term. If this resistance holds, a pullback towards $ 3350 could follow. However, a sustained break above $ 3450 would confirm bullishness, opening the way for higher levels at $ 3600–$ 3700.

Silver ($ 36.86) bounced back slightly after hitting a low of $ 36.40 on Friday. The near-term outlook remains bearish, with a decline towards $ 36.00–$ 35.50 likely.

Copper ($ 4.4245) has risen slightly, but the overall outlook remains bearish, targeting $ 4.20–$ 4.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0350) is trading above $ 3.00, but our bias remains for a decline towards $ 2.70 in the near term.

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
0.5 …Previous 0.1

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
51.3 …Previous 49.6

DATA YESTERDAY

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expectation 2.5 …Previous 2.5 …Actual 2.5

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
49.5 …Expectation 48.8 …Previous 50.1 …Actual 48.9

1:30 07:00 AU PPI
…Previous 0.9 …Actual 0.7

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
50.9 …Expectation 50.2 …Previous 50.4 …Actual 49.5

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expectation 59.2 …Previous 58.4 …Actual 59.1

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
…Expectation 49.8 …Previous 49.5 …Actual 49.8

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
48.2 …Expectation 48.2 …Previous 47.7 …Actual 48

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.3 …Expectation 2.0 …Previous 2.0 …Actual 2.0

12:30 18:00 US NFP
130 …Expectation 108 …Previous 147 …Actual 73

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.2 …Previous 4.1 …Actual 4.2

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 45.6 …Actual 46.1

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
48.4 …Expectation 49.5 …Previous 49.0 …Actual 48