The Dollar Index fell to the lower end of its 100-98 range after the US CPI release increased rate hike expectations by FED in Sep-25. The downside is expected to be limited to 97/96. EURUSD has the upside capped at 1.18. EURINR needs a decisive break past 102.50 to head towards 103-104. For now, the downside targets of 101.50-101.00 are kept alive. EURJPY & USDJPY have the scope to head towards 174/175 and 150/151 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is stuck within 7.1750-7.1900. The Aussie is coming off but overall, it can trade within 0.64-0.66 region for some time. The Pound gave a break above 1.35 and if sustained can test 1.36/37 before halting. USDINR can head towards 88 in the near term.

Dollar Index (98.103) slipped to 97.89 yesterday after the US CPI release ramped up market expectations of a Sep-25 rate cut by FED. Even if the fall extends below 98, the downside can be limited to 97/96 max. Eventually, the index is likely to begin a fresh rally in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1677) has risen a bit within its 1.16-1.17 region. The upside looks capped at 1.18 and upon testing it or from the current levels itself, the pair is likely to fall back. Overall, a range of 1.14-1.18 is likely to hold for some time.

EURINR (102.2674) is attempting to rise back again. Only a break past 102.50 can bring the higher levels of 103-104 into picture. Until further clarity, the targets of 101.50-101.00 are kept open for now.

EURJPY (172.31) and Dollar-Yen (148.13) are slowly inching higher and while above 171 and 147/146, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 174-175 and 150-151 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1821) appears stuck within 7.1750-7.1900 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity. Broadly, a range of 7.20-7.14 can persist for some time.

Aussie (0.6519) limited the fall to 0.6481 and started rising higher. While above 0.65, the pair have the scope to extend the rise towards 0.66. Overall, a range of 0.64-0.66 is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.3498) indeed rose past 1.35 but could not sustain and declined a bit from 1.3523 itself. Still, while the pair trades above the immediate resistance turned support at 1.34, the targets of 1.36/37 are kept open for now.

USDINR (87.5680) further tested 87.73 before closing lower. While above 87.50, a further rise to 87.80-88.00 is possible. Overall, the range of 87.50-88.00 is likely to hold for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen but could have decent resistance in the near term, from where a short dip is possible. The US CPI data release came in higher as widely expected, which could be positive for the yields in the next few sessions. The German yields have risen sharply too, and look bullish for the coming sessions. The 10Yr GoI has also risen well yesterday, sharply breaking above 6.40%. However, it could face resistance near 6.55/58% which could limit the near-term rise. A decisive break above 6.58%, if seen can be further bullish in the medium term.

The US 10Yr (4.295%) and 30Yr (4.882%) Treasury yields have moved up slightly. The near-term upside can be limited to 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) while the 30yr yield has a good support at 4.8% and decent resistance near 4.90/95%, a break above which will be needed for a further rise towards 5% or higher in the medium term; else it can become vulnerable to test 4.7/4.6% on a break below 4.8%. The 10yr yield however needs to break above 4.35% to extend the rise further. The rate cut expectations by the FED in Sep-25 remain high after the higher inflation data released yesterday, as widely expected.

The German 10Yr (2.7412%) and 30Yr (3.3148%) yields have risen sharply. Bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside, while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4920%) has risen well above 6.4%. But there is a crucial resistance near 6.55/58% which if holds can take the yield down to 6.3/6.2% in the coming week. A decisive break above 6.58% would be needed for the current up move to extend further in the long run.

The Dow is up after a higher CPI release yesterday keeping the Sep-25 rate cut possibility intact by the FED, while the Dax closed lower yesterday. The Dow has scope for a rise towards 45000 while Dax could have room to decline to 24000-23500 before eventually rising higher towards 24450/480. Nifty could attempt to rise today towards 24850 while above 24400. Nikkei appears bullish for the medium term, targeting 44000, while Shanghai may face rejection near 3700.

The Dow (44458.61, +1.10%) rose after a higher CPI release yesterday affirming possibilities of a rate cut in Sep-25. View is bullish to 45000 while above 43500.

DAX (24024.78, -0.23%) has dipped yesterday, and the index could have a fair scope to decline to 24000-23500 before rising eventually towards 25000. A rise from current levels, if seen immediately, can limit the near-term upside to 24450/480.

Nifty (24487.40, -0.40%) could rise today towards 24800-24850. Thereafter, whether the price manages to break higher will have to be seen for an extended rise towards 25000. The view is bullish above 24400.

Nikkei (43287.30, +1.33%) has risen sharply and could be headed towards 44000 in the near term. The view is bullish for the near to medium term.

Shanghai (3668.04, +0.058%) is also rising as expected and could test 3700 before facing a dip.

Brent and WTI are falling as expected, with further declines towards $ 64–$ 62 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively. Gold is holding above $ 3,400, with a break lower targeting $ 3,350. Silver has rebounded from $ 37.50 but needs to clear $ 38.50 for further gains. Copper is testing a breakout above $ 4.50, which could lead to $ 4.60–$ 4.80. Natural gas has dropped to $ 2.7740, with scope for further fall towards $ 2.75–$ 2.70.

Brent ($ 66.07) has reversed as anticipated and could fall further towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.10) is declining as expected and may fall further towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,401.30) is hovering above $ 3,400. A break below this level could drag the price down to $ 3,350; however, if this support holds, a bounce towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 is possible.

Silver ($ 38.14) has limited its fall to $ 37.50 and has started to move up. A sustained break above $ 38.50 is needed for the price to rise further towards $ 39–$ 40, otherwise, it may remain vulnerable to a decline towards $ 37.

Copper ($ 4.5080) is attempting to break above the mentioned range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30. A sustained break could push prices higher towards $ 4.60–$ 4.80 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7940) plunged to a low of $ 2.7740 on forecasts for cooler US temperatures. A further fall towards $ 2.75–$ 2.70 is possible in the coming sessions.

1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectation 25.30 …Previous 1.98

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln)
…Expectation -21.7 …Previous -21.7

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.7

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
…Previous -0.13

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Expectation -0.9 …Previous 1.7

9:00 14:30 EU Flash GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.1

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
…Previous -18.78

12:30 18:00 US PPI
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.0

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.0

DATA Yesterday

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectation 3.60 …Previous 3.85 …Actual 3.60

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.8 …Expectation 4.7 …Previous 4.7 …Actual 4.7

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
2.48 …Expectation 1.76 …Previous 1.72 …Actual 1.55

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3