The Dollar Index has held the support of 97.75 quite well and while above it, the target of 100.00-100.50 can be achieved. EURUSD and EURINR can fall within their 1.18-1.14 and 102.50-101.50 ranges respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY on a confirmed break past 173 and 148 can rise towards 174/75 and 150/51. USDCNY is likely to trade within 7.16-7.20 region for a while. The Aussie is nearing the lower end of its 0.665-0.645 range. The Pound below 1.3650 can fall towards 1.34 in the near term. USDINR is coming off as expected. The ongoing fall can test the support near 87.25-87.15 soon. US Housing starts data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.22) has bounced well from the support near 97.75 and if sustained above current levels, can rise towards 100.00-100.50 as anticipated. Overall, the downside can be limited to 97-96 max.

EURUSD (1.1647) is coming off as expected and a further fall within its 1.18-1.14 range is possible.

Similarly, EURINR (101.777) can hold the 102.50-101.50/101 range in the near term while the resistance at 102.50 holds.

For EURJPY (172.10) and Dollar-Yen (147.74) we retain our view of seeing a sustained rise past 173 and 148 and head towards 174-175 and 150-151 in the near term respectively. Only a break below current levels if seen, can make the pairs vulnerable to test 171/70 and 146/45 before attempting to rise back later.

USDCNY (7.1804) is slowly inching higher. The range of 7.16-7.20 remains intact for now.

Aussie (0.6489) is nearing the support at 0.645 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further to 0.640-0.635 or the range of 0.645-0.665 remains intact will have to be seen.

Pound (1.3498) started coming off from 1.3565 itself. looks stable above 1.35 for now. While below 1.3650, a further fall to 1.34 looks likely to happen.

USDINR (87.3290) has turned lower as anticipated and can test 87.25-87.15 soon. Thereafter, if this immediate support holds, a bounce back is possible; however, a sustained break below would open the way for a further fall towards 87.00-86.80-86.50 levels in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps intact our near-term bullish view. The yields have room to rise more. The German yields are turning down. The resistance seems to be holding well. A further fall from here can drag them lower going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain volatile inside a range.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields have inched up further. That keeps intact our view of seeing a rise to 4.4%-4.45% (10Yr) and 5%-5.05% (30Yr) while above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.76%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields are turning down. Failure to breach 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) can drag them down to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) and lower.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4968%) continues to remain volatile between 6.4% and 6.5%. A rise to test 6.6% is a possibility but not beyond that. For now, 6.4%-6.5%/6.6% can be the trading range for some time before the yields turn down eventually over the medium term.

The Dow has dipped slightly and could test 44500-44000 while below resistance near 45200. Dax could continue to trade within a broader range of 25000-23500. Nifty rose yesterday on GST reforms mentioned by the PM but the index may or maynot keep up the bullish momentum intact. Failure to sustain the rise and break above 25000 would drag it down again towards 24850-24600 region in the coming days. Watch price action closely. Nikkei and Shanghai have been rising well in the past few sessions and look bullish towards 44000 and 3750-3800 in the near term.

The Dow (44911.82, -0.076%) has slightly dipped. While below the resistance near 45200, we may expect the index to dip back towards 44500-44000 in the coming days. Only a sustained rise above 45000-45200, if seen, can extend the rally towards 46000 in the medium term. For now, the overall view is bearish while below 45200-45000.

DAX (24314.77, -0.18%) traded flat yesterday with less movement. An overall broad range of 25000-23500 may continue to hold till a decisive breakout is seen on either side.

Nifty (24876.95, +1%) rose yesterday after the next generation GST reforms were mentioned by PM Modi in his independence day speech and on a credit rating upgrade by S&P Global. Having broken above our expected 24850, it would be crucial to see if the index manages to rise and sustain beyond 25000 to pull up further rise, else the index can fall back to 24850-24600 region in the next few sessions.

Nikkei (43621.38, -0.21%) rose well yesterday ok a weaker Yen but has dipped slightly today. Overall view is likely to be bullish for the coming weeks targeting 44000 and 46000 eventually.

Shanghai (3739.95, +0.32%) has been in a strong upmove over the last few months but could have a series of resistances coming up near 3750, 3800 and higher near 4000. For the near term we need to see if the rally pauses and faces any dip from 3750-3800 region which could then take the index down to 3700-3650 initially.

Brent and WTI have bounced back with scope to rise towards $ 66–$ 68 and $ 64–$ 66 respectively, supported by geopolitical risks and strong near-term support levels. Gold is holding above $ 3,350 and may rebound towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver has support at $ 37.5 and can break higher towards $ 39–$ 40 in the near term. Copper remains rangebound within $ 4.50–$ 4.30. Natural Gas stays firm above $ 2.8 with scope to rise towards $ 3.0–$ 3.1.

Brent ($ 65.58) has bounced back as anticipated on speculation that there will be no resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war anytime soon, which could lead to secondary sanctions on Russian crude exports tightening the global oil supply. A further rise towards $ 66–$ 68 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 66.35) tested a low of $ 61.45 and bounced back to close at $ 62.70 yesterday. While the immediate support holds, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 64–$ 66 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,378.50) has dipped as expected. Immediate support is seen near $ 3,350, and while that holds, we might see a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming sessions. Alternatively, a sustained break below this level would turn it bearish, targeting $ 3,300–$ 3,200, but this looks less likely for now.

Silver ($ 37.91) has dipped further but has immediate support near $ 37.5. As long as this support holds, we might see a break on the higher side above $ 38.5, targeting $ 39–$ 40. Alternatively, a break on the lower side would negate our bullish view and instead turn bearish towards $ 36, though this appears less likely.

Copper ($ 4.4685) continues to fall, with the range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30 expected to hold for some time until a breakout on either side takes place.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8760) is holding above $ 2.8, and while above this level, it can continue to move up towards $ 3.0–$ 3.1 in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 2.8 would open lower levels of $ 2.6–$ 2.4, though this looks less likely for now.

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
…Kshtij 1353 …Expectation 1290 …Previous 1327

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 1.9

DATA LAST THURSDAY
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{9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln
…Expectations 18.1 …Previous 16.5 …Actual 7.0