The Dollar Index is firm and may rise towards 100.00–100.50 with downside limited to 97–96, while EURUSD continues to weaken towards 1.16 within its 1.18–1.16 range. EURINR is falling sharply and could test 101 before holding in a 101–102.50 band, and EURJPY is at crucial support near 171.50, which must hold to avoid a fall to 170, with a break above 173 needed to resume its long term bullish trend. Dollar-Yen is supported at 147 and could rebound towards 150–151, though a break lower risks 146–145. USDCNY faces resistance at 7.1950 and may pull back towards 7.17–7.16, while Aussie has broken below support at 0.6450 and looks bearish towards 0.64–0.6350. Pound is weak and could slip to 1.34, and USDINR remains under pressure after plunging to 86.9175 yesterday, with further downside towards 86.75–86.50 still likely.

Dollar Index (98.28) is moving higher in line with our expectations and can extend its rise towards 100.00–100.50 as anticipated. The downside is likely to be limited to 97–96 at most.

EURUSD (1.1625) continues to decline as expected, with scope for a further fall towards 1.16 within its narrow 1.18–1.16 range.

EURINR (101.29) is falling sharply and could test 101 in the near term. If this support holds, the broader 101–102.50 range may remain intact for some time.

EURJPY (171.58) has dropped to its crucial support near 171.50. This level needs to hold to avoid a deeper fall towards 170 in the coming weeks, while a sustained break above 173 would be required to resume the long-term bullish trend towards 174–175.

Dollar-Yen (147.60) has declined contrary to expectations but has immediate support near 147. While this holds, the pair can rise past 148 and target 150–151 in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a sustained break below 147 would open the way for a fall towards 146–145.

USDCNY (7.1882) closed lower at 7.1814 yesterday but is moving up today. Immediate resistance is seen near 7.1950, and while this caps the upside, a pullback towards 7.17–7.16 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6435) fell sharply to close near its immediate support at 0.6450 yesterday. Today it has broken below this level and is trading lower. While below 0.6450, the outlook remains bearish towards 0.64–0.6350 in the coming weeks.

Pound (1.3468) is declining as expected and could extend its fall towards 1.34 in the near term.

USDINR (87.05) plunged sharply to a low of 86.9175 yesterday, in line with our expectations, following optimism that the U.S. may ease its stance on the additional 25% tariffs imposed on domestic goods after Donald Trump’s meeting with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. It is now trading just above 87, but the outlook remains for a further fall towards 86.75–86.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside. The yields have room to rise further from here before reversing lower. The German yields remain lower below their resistance. Failure to rise back and breach the resistance can drag them lower in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen well breaking the near-term range on the upside. While there is room to rise further, crucial resistance is coming up which can halt the rise. The yield can reverse lower after testing that resistance.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Immediate support is at 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.85% (30Yr). While that holds a rise to 4.45%-5% (10Yr), 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr) is still possible.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. Failure to rise above 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) can drag them down to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) and lower.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5139%) rose to a high of 6.5486%. Strong resistance is at 6.6% which can cap the upside. We expect the yield to reverse lower from around 6.6% and fall back to 6.4% and even lower over the medium term.

The Dow Jones is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. It can see a near-term fall before rising back again. Dax is inching up. The bias is positive to break the immediate resistance and rise more. Nifty has supported to limit the downside in the near term. But it has to breach its immediate resistance in order to move further higher. Nikkei and Shanghai can see a corrective fall in the near-term before resuming the broader uptrend.

The Dow (44922.27, +0.02%) continues its struggle to get a strong follow-through rise above 45000. While below 45200, a fall to 44500 or even 44000 can happen first and then it can rise back again to target 46000 on the upside over the medium term

DAX (24423.07, +0.45%) is inching up. Bias is positive to breach 24500 and rise to 25300-25500 eventually. Strong supports are at 24000 and 23500.

Nifty (24980.65, +0.42%) remains stable. It has to breach 25100 to move up towards 25250 and higher in the near term. Support is now at 24800 and 24700.

Nikkei (42867, -1.56%) has come down sharply. It may fall to 42000 and even lower before resuming the upmove to target 46000 on the upside.

Shanghai (3717, -0.28%) is struggling to breach 3750 and may dip to 3650 first. Thereafter it can rise back to test 3800 and even 4000 eventually. Note that 4000 is a very strong resistance which will need a close watch.

Brent and WTI are holding key supports near $ 65 and $ 61.50, which could trigger short-lived rebounds towards $ 68 and $ 64 before turning lower again. Gold is still supported around $ 3,350, leaving room for a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 unless it breaks lower towards $ 3,300–$ 3,200. Silver has slipped below support and looks bearish towards $ 37.00–$ 36.50, while Copper continues to trade within the $ 4.50–$ 4.30 range. Natural Gas remains under pressure from cooler weather forecasts and higher production outlook, with scope to test $ 2.70 before any meaningful recovery.

Brent ($ 65.96) is falling contrary to our expectations, but as long as support near $ 65 holds, we maintain our view of a bounce back towards $ 68 in the near term before resuming its bearish trend.

WTI ($ 61.97) has not moved up as expected, but immediate support is seen near $ 61.50. While above this level, we expect a rebound towards $ 64 in the near term before turning lower again.

Gold ($ 3,359.90) is slipping but has immediate support near $ 3,350. While this holds, we expect a bounce towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming sessions. Alternatively, a sustained break below this level would turn it bearish towards $ 3,300–$ 3,200, though this looks less likely for now.

Silver ($ 37.26) has broken below immediate support, contrary to our expectations. While it sustains below this level, the outlook remains bearish towards $ 37.00–$ 36.50 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.43) continues to decline, with the range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30 expected to hold for some time until a breakout on either side occurs.

Natural Gas ($ 2.76) has fallen sharply on forecasts of cooler US weather and expectations of higher US production. A further decline towards the crucial support at $ 2.70 is likely in the near term. If this support holds, a bounce back could follow.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
…Kshtij 3.7 …Expectation 3.7 …Previous 3.6

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
…Kshtij 2.5 …Expectation 2.0 …Previous 2.0

DATA LAST THURSDAY
===============

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
…Kshtij 1353 …Expectation 1290 …Previous 1358 …Actual 1428

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectation 1.7 …Previous 1.9 …Actual 1.7