The Dollar Index failed to sustain its rise past 98 and while below it, the index can be vulnerable to fall towards 97 or even 96. The Euro is moving higher within the 1.16-1.18 range. EURINR is headed towards the resistance near 104. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.1250 to bring higher levels into picture. Else, a pull back to 7.11 can happen initially. The Aussie has scope to rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.660-0.655. The Pound can trade within the 1.36-1.34 region for some time. USDINR tested 88.4550 before cooling down. Immediate resistance is coming at 88.50 and higher at 88.75, below which the pair is likely to trade within the 88.75-88.00 region. UK Trade balance and IN CPI data release are scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (97.831) rose to 98.08 but failed to hold its gains and has since started to decline. If it remains below 98, the index may weaken further towards the 97–96 region. A decisive break above 98 is needed to trigger a move higher towards 99–100.

EURUSD (1.1697) is rising within its immediate range of 1.16-1.18 which is likely to hold for some time before a break is seen.

While EURINR (103.6534) has moved above 103.50 once again, and if it sustains this level, a test of resistance at 104 is likely in the coming sessions. Price action near 104 will be crucial to watch to see whether the resistance holds and pulls the pair back toward 103, or a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (172.894) is slowly inching higher. The range of 172-174 remains intact for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.41) observed the high of 148.19 but could not sustain and started coming off. Overall, the pair is likely to trade within the 149-146 region for some time.

USDCNY (7.1200) tested a low of 7.1167 before recovering slightly. A break above 7.1250 is needed to turn the outlook bullish for a move toward 7.15–7.16. The 7.11 target remains in play for now.

Aussie (0.6659) can test our target resistance at 0.67 in the near term if it holds above 0.660–0.655 before halting.

Pound (1.3557) continues to trade within the 1.36-1.34 region which is likely to persist in the near term.

USDINR (88.29) had risen to the high of 88.4550 before coming down. Immediate resistance is seen near 88.50 and further at 88.75, which can be tested in the near term, while the pair may consolidate within the broader 88.75-88.00 range for some time.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down. There is room on the downside to see more fall in the coming days. The US CPI data failed to give a push for the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 2.94% (YoY) in August, up from 2.73% in the previous month. The German Yields remain stable and lower. They can dip in the near-term before resuming their broader uptrend. The ECB left the rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday. The 10Yr GoI is coming down and can test its support. A sideways range is possible for some time before a downside break of the range happens eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.03%) and 30Yr (4.66%) Treasury yields are coming down as expected. The 10Yr can fall to 3.9% while below 4.1%. The 30Yr on the other hand can fall to 4.5% on a break below 4.65%.

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and 30Yr (3.25%) yields continue to remain lower and stable. While below 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr), the yields can test 2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr). Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4666%) remains lower and may test 6.4%. We reiterate that 6.4%-6.6% can be the range for some time. The bias will be bearish to see a downside break below 6.4% eventually.

Dow Jones rose sharply yesterday breaking above the immediate resistance at 46000 after a higher US inflation data release that boosted expectations of a possible rate cut by the FED. The ECB kept rates unchanged as broadly expected. Dax has risen but could face rejection from immediate resistance at 24000. Nifty could attempt to rise and sustain above 25000 which can take it towards 25500 while Nikkei can continue to rise towards 45000-45500 where it can face a rejection. Nikkei and Shanghai are rising on optimism around the growth of AI-businesses. Shanghai, if manages to break above 3900 can reach to 4000 before facing rejection from there.

The Dow (46108, +1.36%) has broken above the near term resistance at 46000 and if the rise sustains, the index can continue to rally towards 47000-48000 in the coming weeks. Failure to sustain the rise should take the index sharply down below 46000 again in the next couple of sessions, which if seen would prevent the expected rise towards upper resistance at 48000.

DAX (23703.65, +0.30%) rose slightly yesterday. But there is near term resistance at 24000 below which there can be scope for a decline towards 23500-23000 again in the coming weeks. Only a decisive break above 24000 can take the index higher towards the upper target of 25000. Till then the view is bearish while below 24000.

Nifty (25005.50, +0.13%) is trading around crucial levels just now. A sustained rise above 25000 shall take the index towards medium term resistance at 25500 in the coming weeks. Else if the index fails to hold above 250000, it could fall back towards the 24800-24600 region but that looks less likely at the moment.  

Nikkei (44609.96, +0.54%) continues to rise as the tech based Softbank group rose more than 10% on optimism of growth in the AI-cloud business in the US. Nikkei has scope to rise to 45000-45500 in the coming days before facing any rejection from there. 

Shanghai (3883.71, +0.22%) has risen well today but needs to break above 3900 to test upper resistance at 4000.

Brent and WTI have dipped as expected, with Brent vulnerable to a fall towards $ 65–$ 64 and WTI likely to test $ 60–$ 58 in the near term. Gold remains bullish despite a slight dip, targeting $ 3,750–$ 3,800, while Silver has broken above its earlier range and can rise towards $ 43–$ 44. Copper is inching higher with scope to test $ 4.70–$ 4.80, whereas Natural gas, having slipped below $ 3, looks weak towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80.

Brent ($ 65.90) has dipped as expected on concerns of a global crude supply glut after the IEA raised its 2026 global oil surplus estimate. It can decline further towards $ 65–$ 64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 61.87) has fallen in line with expectations and may decline further towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,686.40) dipped slightly yesterday, but the outlook remains bullish towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 42.68) closed at $ 42.15 yesterday and has now broken above the mentioned range of $ 42–$ 41. It can rise further towards $ 43–$ 44 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6735) is inching up and looks set to move higher towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9180) has fallen below $ 3 as expected and can decline further towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 in the near term.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln)
-23.1 …Expectations -21.6 …Previous -22.2

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
2.17 …Previous 1.55

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 11:45 IST 17:15 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual 2.15

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3