The Dollar Index can be vulnerable to fall towards 97 or even 96 while below 98. The Euro is moving higher within the 1.16-1.18 range. EURINR is stuck within the 103-104 range. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 174-172 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.1250 to bring higher levels into picture. Else, a pull back to 7.11 can happen initially. The Aussie and Pound face immediate resistance at 0.67 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR can trade within the 88.75-88.00 region while below 88.50-88.75.

Dollar Index (97.66) may weaken further towards the 97–96 region If it remains below 98. A decisive break above 98 is needed to trigger a move higher towards 99–100.

EURUSD (1.1725) continues to trade higher within its immediate range of 1.16-1.18 which is likely to hold for some time before a break is seen.

EURINR (103.4932) is consolidating within 103-104 region and a break on the either side of its range will be needed for further clarity.

The range of 174-172 remains intact within the EURJPY (172.894) for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.551) has immediate resistance coming around 148.50, below which the pair can broadly continue to trade within the 149-146 region.

USDCNY (7.1218) on a break above 7.1250 can head towards 7.15–7.16 levels. Else, it can initially target 7.11 before turning higher.

Aussie (0.6656) has immediate resistance coming at 0.67 which can cap the immediate upside. A sustained break above 0.67 would open the path toward 0.68 and higher levels, otherwise a pullback to the 0.660–0.655 zone is likely.

Pound (1.3559) continues to trade within the 1.36-1.34 region which is likely to persist in the near term.

USDINR (88.2520) has immediate resistance near 88.50 and further at 88.75, which can be tested in the near term, while the pair may consolidate within the broader 88.75-88.00 range for some time.

The US Treasury yields have inched up. Resistances can cap the upside if there is a rise from here and keep the yields under pressure. There is room on the downside for the Treasury yields to fall more in the coming days. The German yields have bounced but can be short-lived. They can fall back to test their support. Thereafter the broader uptrend can resume. The 10Yr GoI has risen and remains well within the range. It can continue to oscillate sideways for some time before declining eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.06%) and 30Yr (4.68%) Treasury yields have inched up. The view remains the same. While below 4.1%-4.2%, the 10Yr can fall to 3.9%. The 30Yr can fall to 4.5% on a break below 4.65%. This fall can happen either from here itself or after a short-lived bounce.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.30%) yields have risen back well. But resistance at 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) can cap the upside. A fall to 2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) is still possible before a bullish reversal happens.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4867%) has risen and remains well within the 6.4%-6.6%. The yield can oscillate within this range for some time before declining below 6.4% eventually to test 6.2%.

The Dow looks bullish above strong support at 45500–45000 with potential to rise towards 47000–48000, while the DAX remains range-bound between 23000 and 24500 with scope for a near-term dip to 23000 if it stays below 24000. Nifty has broken above 25000 and can head higher towards 25250 and 25500 with support at 25000–24800. Nikkei stays bullish for a move towards 45000–45500 before a possible reversal, while Shanghai needs a break above 3900 to test resistance at 4000.

The Dow (45834.22, -0.59%) has come off below 46000. But the broader picture is bullish with strong support in the 45500-45000 region. The Dow can rise to 47000-48000.

DAX (23698.15, -0.02%) is largely stuck inside a wide range of 23000-24500. Within that a near-term dip to 23000 is possible while below 24,000.

Nifty (25114, +0.43%) has risen well above 25000. It can now rise to 25250 and 25500 in the near term. Support is in the 25000-24800 region.

Nikkei (44708.96, +0.08%) remains bullish towards 45000-45500 in the coming days before reversal sets in.  

Shanghai (3870.59, -0.12%) needs to break above 3900 to test upper resistance at 4000.

Brent and WTI remain weak below their resistances, keeping the outlook bearish for a fall towards $ 65–$ 64 and $ 60–$ 58 respectively. Gold is attempting to break above $ 3,700, and a sustained move higher can open the way towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks, while Silver holds firm above $ 42 with potential to rise towards $ 43–$ 44. Copper has faced resistance near $ 4.70 and may dip further towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55, while Natural Gas is likely to decline towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.20) is trading below $ 68, and while this level holds, we maintain our view of a fall towards $ 65–$ 64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.93) remains below $ 64 and can decline further towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,666.60) is attempting to break above $ 3,700, and a sustained move above this level would take the price higher towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 42.55) is trading above $ 42, and our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 43–$ 44 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6410) faced resistance near $ 4.70 and dipped to $ 4.65 on Friday. While this resistance holds, we could see a further decline towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9740) is likely to decline towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 in the near term.

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expectations 3.8 …Previous 3.7

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectations 5.7 …Previous 5.7

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
0.21 …Expectations 0.30 …Previous -0.58

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 IN Trade bal $ Bln
-24.9 …Previous -27.35

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln)
-23.1 …Expectations -21.6 …Previous -22.2 …Actual -22.2

{GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
2.17 …Previous 1.55 …Actual 2.07