The Dollar Index is coming off as anticipated and can test our targets of 97-96 in the near term. The Euro and EURINR need to see a break above 1.18 and 104 to bring the 1.19 and 105 levels into picture. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is coming off and can test 7.11-7.10 if the fall extends further. The Aussie and Pound face are headed towards the immediate resistance coming at 0.67 and 1.3650 respectively. USDINR can trade within the 88.00-88.50 region for some time before heading towards 88.75 later. US Retail sales, Industrial production & Capacity utilisation are some of the important data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.286) is slowly inching lower and a break below 97 can drag it lower to 96 as well before attempting to bounce back later. Overall, the view remains bearish below 98.

EURUSD (1.1771) is trading near the upper end of its 1.16-1.18 range. The charts have enough room to test 1.19 but a confirmed break past 1.18 will be needed for it.

EURINR (103.7447) has a near term resistance coming at 104, need to see whether it holds and pushes the cross lower or extend the rise to 105 or higher. Watch price action closely around current levels.

The range of 172-174 remains intact within the EURJPY (173.29) for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.17) is coming off as anticipated and can extend the fall further within its 149-146 range.

USDCNY (7.1164) as cautioned has slipped below 7.12 and can now fall towards 7.11-7.10 before rebounding later in the near term.

Aussie (0.6664) has immediate resistance coming at 0.67 which can cap the immediate upside. A sustained break above 0.67 would open the path toward 0.68 and higher levels, otherwise a pullback to the 0.660–0.655 zone is likely.

Pound (1.3609) is headed towards the immediate resistance coming at 1.3650 which can be tested soon. Overall, we expect the pair to trade within 1.3400-1.3650 region for now before a break is seen.

USDINR (88.13) had initially 88.1450 and closed higher. On the NDF as well it is trading near 88.13 level. While above 88, the USDINR can consolidate within the 88.00–88.50 region for the next few sessions before eventually moving higher. Bias remains positive to see a rise towards 88.75 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. We expect the yields to fall either from here itself or after a short-lived corrective bounce. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tomorrow is going to be an important event to watch. The German yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall more before resuming their broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI remains unclear. It can continue to oscillate in a sideways range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.04%) and 30Yr (4.66%) Treasury yields dipped slightly. The bias remains negative to see a fall to 3.9% (10Yr) either from here itself or after a short-lived rise to 4.1% or 4.2%. The 30Yr on the other hand can fall to 4.5% on a break below 4.65%.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.26%) yields have reversed lower again. That keeps intact our view of seeing 2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the downside. Thereafter the yields can rise back. Resistance is now at 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4963%) is inching up. The near-term picture is unclear. 6.45%-6.55% (narrow)/6.4%-6.6% (broad) is the trading range for now.

The Dow is attempting to move higher with a bullish bias for 47,000–48,000 while holding above 45,500–45,000. The DAX remains rangebound between 23,000-24,500 with chances of a dip towards 23,000. Nifty has slipped slightly but support at 25,000–24,800 is expected to hold, keeping the outlook bullish for 25,250–25,500. Nikkei stays positive and can rise towards 45,000–45,500 in the near term before any reversal. Shanghai, however, is weakening and could fall towards 3,830–3,800 before a possible rebound towards 3,900–4,000.

The Dow (45883.45, +0.11%) is attempting to move up. Bias is bullish to see a rise to 47000-48000 while above 45500-45000.

DAX (23748.86, +0.21%) remains stable within the 23000-24500 range. That keeps alive the chances of a dip within the range to 23000

Nifty (25069.20, -0.18%) has dipped slightly. Support at 25000-24800 can limit the downside. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 25250-25500 in the near term.

Nikkei (44810.16, +0.16%) has risen slightly and the outlook remains bullish towards 45000-45500 in the coming days before any reversal takes place.  

Shanghai (3859.29, -0.03%) is falling off contrary to our expectations. It can decline to test it’s immediate support near 3830-3800 before a bounce back to 3900-4000 levels takes place.

Brent and WTI remain weak as long as they stay below $ 68 and $ 64 respectively, keeping the downside view intact for a fall towards $ 65–$ 64 and $ 60–$ 58 in the near term. Gold has hit a fresh all-time high and looks poised to rise further towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800, while Silver can extend gains towards $ 43.50–$ 44. Copper is facing resistance and could reverse lower towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55 unless a break above $ 4.70 opens the way for $ 4.80–$ 5.00. Natural Gas is also struggling below resistance near $ 3.00, and while this holds, a decline towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 remains likely.

Brent ($ 67.63) is trading below $ 68, and while this level holds, we maintain our view of a decline towards $ 65–$ 64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.48) remains weak, and as long as it stays below $ 64, our view of a fall towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term stays intact.

Gold ($ 3,716.60) rose to a new all-time high of $ 3,724.90 yesterday, and a further rise towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 looks likely in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 43.14) has risen in line with our expectations and can extend the upmove towards $ 43.50–$ 44 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.7080) has bounced back to test immediate resistance. While this holds, we expect a reversal towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55 in the near term, but a break above $ 4.70 would open the way for a rise towards $ 4.80–$ 5.00.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0170) has bounced back to test resistance near $ 3.00, contrary to our expectations. However, while this resistance holds, the price can decline towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 in the near term.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
4.7 …Expectations 4.7 …Previous 4.7

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous -1.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
-0.1 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.7

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 1.7

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.0 …Expectations -0.1 …Previous -0.1

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.5 …Expectations 77.4 …Previous 77.5

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expectations 3.8 …Previous 3.7 …Actual 3.4

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectations 5.7 …Previous 5.7 …Actual 5.2

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
0.21 …Expectations 0.30 …Previous -0.58 …Actual 0.52

{GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 IN Trade bal $ Bln
-24.9 …Previous -27.35 …Actual -26.49