The FED Delivered 25-bps rate cut as widely expected and signaled two more reductions this year and only one in 2026.The Dollar Index tested 96.28 and while above 96 a rise back towards 98-99 can happen. The Euro and EURINR are coming off from 1.1918 and 104.38 and can extend the fall towards 1.17-1.16 and 103.50-103.00 respectively in the near term.. EURJPY needs to see a break past 174 to bring higher levels into picture, while USDJPY has a scope to test 148-149 in the coming sessions. USDCNY has recovered from the lof 7.1028 and can now bounce back towards 7.125 and higher. The Aussie and Pound failed to sustain the rise and started coming off. A further fall to 0.660-0.655 and 1.35/34 looks likely to happen. USDINR if fails to see a rise past 88, can get dragged towards 87.50-87.25 as well. Wait for a confirmed break below 87.70. US Philifed Index and the US TICS data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (96.71) fell to 96.22 after the 25-bps Fed rate cut, but has since recovered. As long as it stays above 96, the index could attempt a move back towards the resistance coming at 98–99 in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1815) tested the high of 1.1918 on Dollar weakness before coming down. While the resistance at 1.19 holds, a pull back towards 1.17 or the the deeper support at 1.16 can be seen in the near term.

EURINR (103.7786) started coming off from 104.38 itself and can test the support coming at 103.50-103.00 before attempting to rebound later. The target of 105 is kept alive until a break below 103 is seen.

EURJPY (173.72) is trading near the upper end of its 172-174 range. A confirmed break past 174 can open the doors for 176-178 in the medium term, while failing to do so can keep the range intact.

Dollar-Yen (146.99) slipped below 146 to the low of 145.48 but soon it recovered from there as well. While the rise sustains, a further test to 148-149 looks possible in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1073) in line with our view tested 7.1028 before rising back a bit. While above 7.10, the pair has a scope to bounce back towards .125 and higher levels in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6645) failed to sustain its rise past 1.365 and started coming off from 1.3726 itself. Now, a break below 1.36 can make it vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.35-1.34 as well. Watch price action closely.

{USDINR (87.8090) #usdinr-candles-Daily”>Pound (1.3643) tested the low of 87.70 before closing at 87.82. Failure to push above 88 could expose downside risk, with a break below 87.70 potentially driving the pair towards 87.50–87.25. The near-term outlook remains cautious and requires close monitoring.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply from their lows after the US Fed meeting outcome yesterday. The Fed delivered a 25-basis points rate cut as expected. The projections showed that another 50-bps rate cut is possible for this year. The German yields have dipped. View remains the same. The yields can fall more from here to test their support and then can reverse higher again. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range and is coming down within it.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and 30Yr (4.67%) Treasury yields have risen back well after testing 4% and 4.6% respectively. If the bounce sustains, then a rise to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr), 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr) is possible in the near-term before they reverse lower again.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.23%) yields have dipped. That keeps intact our view of seeing 2.6%-2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.15% (30Yr) on the downside before the broader uptrend resumes.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4726%) is stuck between 6.45% and 6.5% now and has dipped within it. We repeat that 6.45%-6.55% (narrow) or 6.4%-6.6% (broad) can be the trading range. The bias is negative to see a downside break of the range eventually.

The Dow has risen after the 25bps rate cut by the FED. The Dow Jones looks positive towards 47000-48000 while above 45500. The DAX is stuck in the 23000-24500 range and may continue to hold for some more time. Nifty looks bullish towards 25500 while Nikkei is positive towards 45500 or even 46000. Shanghai looks bullish towards 3900-4000 while above 3830-3800.

The Dow (46018.32, +0.57%) has risen well yesterday after the FED cut rates by 25bps as expected. The Dow remains bullish towards 47000-48000 while above 45500-45000.

DAX (23359.18, -0.13%) is stuck within the 23000-24500 range, keeping alive the chances of a dip to 23000 initially before a rise towards the upper end of the range.

Nifty (25330.25, +0.36%) continues to rise as expected and is headed towards 25500.

Nikkei (45083.56, +0.65%) has broken above 45000 and could be headed towards 45500 in line with our bullish expectations. A decisive break above 45500 could extend the current rise to 46000 before a rejection is seen.

Shanghai (3876.06, -0.0073%) has been stable. While above 3830-3800, a rise to 3900-4000 looks possible in the near term.

Brent and WTI have dipped slightly after weak US housing data but the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 69–70 and $ 65–66 respectively. Gold is slipping contrary to expectations, though a move towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 remains possible if it holds above $ 3,650. Silver has fallen sharply with potential for a further decline towards $ 41–40, while Copper continues to weaken in line with expectations towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55. Natural Gas is also softening and could dip further towards $ 2.90–$ 2.80.

Brent ($ 67.66) has dipped slightly after weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports, which were bearish for the economy and energy demand. However, the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 69–70 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.43) has dipped slightly, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 65–66 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,690.20) is falling off contrary to our expectations, but while it sustains above $ 3,650, the earlier mentioned rise towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 can remain intact for the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 41.87) has fallen sharply and tested a low of $ 41.48 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 41–40 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6155) has fallen in line with our expectations and could decline further towards $ 4.60–$ 4.55 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.08) has dipped in line with our expectations and can decline towards $ 2.90–$ 2.80 in the near term.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force K
…Expectations 21.2 …Previous 24.5

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 BOE Mtg %
…Expectations 4.00 …Previous 4.00

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-1-8 …Previous 0-5-4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations 1.4 …Previous -0.3

GMT 13:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln
…Previous 150.8

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
4.0 …Expectations 3.8 …Previous 3.9 …Actual 3.7

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.4 …Expectations 2.0 …Previous 2.0 …Actual 2.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
1304 …Expectations 1360 …Previous 1428 …Actual 1307

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectations 2.50 …Previous 2.75 …Actual 2.5

GMT 18:00 IST 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <4.25 ...Previous <4.50 ...Actual 4.25