[Daily Market Trend | 19 Sep 2025]

Opening signal & market mood

At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 24,987, down 45 points (-0.18%) from the prior cash close. Sentiment remains cautious as markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today, with pre-announcement jitters weighing on risk appetite across Asian bourses.

Capital flows & institutional move

FIIs on 18 Sep were net sellers of ₹2,847.63 crore.
DIIs on 18 Sep were net buyers of ₹3,125.41 crore.

September month-to-date FII equity outflows stand at ₹−12,482 crore, reflecting ongoing foreign investor caution ahead of key central bank decisions, while domestic institutional support continues to provide a buffer.

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Global Drivers

\ USA

Dow Jones −0.28% : industrial stocks retreated on Fed uncertainty
Nasdaq −0.41% : tech heavyweights under pressure as bond yields climb
S&P500 −0.33% : broad-based decline as investors position defensively

\ Asia

Nikkei −0.45% : yen strength pressures export-oriented stocks
Shanghai Composite +0.31% : China rallies on stimulus speculation
Kospi −0.22% : Korean markets subdued amid semiconductor weakness

\ Europe

FTSE −0.19% : UK equities lower on energy sector drag
DAX −0.35% : German indices decline on industrial concerns
CAC −0.27% : French markets softer alongside European peers

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Events & Newswatch

• Fed Decision Day: FOMC meeting concludes today with rate decision at 18:00 UTC; market pricing suggests 25bp cut probability at 65%.
• India’s trade balance data for August released; exports showing resilience despite global headwinds.
• China’s central bank liquidity operations continue to support market sentiment.
• European Central Bank officials’ speeches provide insights on eurozone policy trajectory.
• Quarterly results season kicks off with major Indian IT companies reporting next week.

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Politics & Policy

India • Parliament session concludes with passage of key infrastructure bills. • Government maintains GDP growth target of 6.8% for FY26 despite external challenges.

US • Pre-election fiscal policy debates intensify with infrastructure spending proposals. • Trade policy discussions continue to influence market sentiment.

Global • China’s National Development and Reform Commission hints at additional fiscal measures. • Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to impact commodity markets.

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Treasuries & Central bank updates

• US 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 4.22%, adding pressure ahead of Fed decision. • Market expectations lean toward a 25bp cut, but hawkish commentary could surprise. • RBI maintains accommodative stance while monitoring external sector developments.

Bond markets & yield trends

India 10-year G-Sec yield at 6.51%, rising alongside global yields as Fed decision approaches.

Currency & forex landscape

USD/INR trades at 88.8 – 89.0, with rupee under pressure from stronger dollar ahead of Fed announcement.
Importers active in hedging operations, adding to currency volatility.

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Commodities

Energy – Brent crude at $66.8 / bbl, softening on demand concerns and stronger dollar. – Natural gas trades lower on mild weather forecasts and adequate storage levels.

Base & precious metals – Gold at $3,721 / oz, holding near recent highs on Fed cut expectations. – Silver consolidates with industrial demand providing support. – Copper shows weakness on China demand concerns while aluminum remains range-bound on mixed industrial signals.

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Volatility & options metrics

India VIX: 11.7 (+8.3% vs prior).
US VIX: 18.2 (+12.1% higher).
Nifty PCR at 0.78, indicating defensive positioning ahead of Fed decision.
Implied volatilities spike across tenors reflecting pre-event nervousness.

Trade levels & technical map

Pivot = 25,025
R1 / R2 = 25,115 / 25,245
S1 / S2 = 24,935 / 24,825

Key watch: critical support at 24,935–24,825 and resistance at 25,115–25,245.
Fed outcome will likely determine direction for rest of the week.

Directional summary & triggers

Net: SGX Nifty at 24,987, implying -45 pts (-0.18%) vs prior close; trend cautiously negative.

Key triggers: Fed decision at 18:00 UTC, US 10Y at 4.22%, Brent crude $66.8, USD/INR near 88.9.

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