The Dollar Index has resistance at 98 and the Euro has support at 1.17 which need to hold for them to test 97-96 and 1.18-1.19 respectively. Else, if Euro falls further to 1.17, the Dollar index can briefly break above 98. EURINR is headed towards support at 103 from where a bounce looks possible towards 104.50, keeping a near term range of 103-104.50 intact. EURJPY and USDJPY have resistances near 174.50 and 148.50 respectively from where declines look possible towards 173-172.50 and 147-146 respectively. USDCNY is extending its rise towards 7.125 or higher, while the Aussie has broken below 0.66 and looks vulnerable to a further dip towards 0.6550. The Pound is holding above support at 1.3450, but a sustained break lower could drag it down to 1.34–1.3350. USDINR is trading firm above 88 with scope to rise towards 88.25–88.35, and a break past 88.35 could open the way for 88.50–88.75.

Dollar Index (97.750) has moved higher but faces immediate resistance at 98, break past which is needed to target 98–99. Ese, If resistance holds, a pullback to 97–96 or even 95 can be possible. Immediate range of 95-98 may hold for the near term with a medium term bullish bias.

EURUSD (1.1732) is trading just above support at 1.1730, in correspondence to the resistance in the Dollar index at 98. If Euro bounces from here, it can head towards 1.18-1.19 else, a break below 1.1730, if seen, can drag it lower towards 1.17.

EURINR (103.4934) is headed towards support at 103 from where a bounce can take it to 104-104.50 in the coming sessions, keeping the near term 103-104.5 range intact. A clear breakout on either side thereafter will be needed to determine where the cross might be headed.

EURJPY (173.91) has dipped from daily trend resistance at 174.50 and can dip to 173-172.50 before again bouncing back towards 174.50 or higher.

Dollar-Yen (148.25) could have resistance either at current levels or slightly higher near 148.50 from where a dip looks likely in the near term towards 147-146.

USDCNY (7.1138) has moved up in line with expectations and can rise further towards 7.125 or higher levels in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6588) has broken below the immediate support at 0.66 and tested a low of 0.6581. A further fall towards interim support near 0.6550 looks likely in the near term.

Pound (1.3463) is trading above its immediate support near 1.3450. A sustained break below this would drag the pair lower towards 1.34–1.3350 in the coming weeks.

USDINR (88.0750) is holding above 88, and while above this level a rise towards 88.25–88.35 can be seen in the near term. A sustained break above 88.35 is then needed for a further move higher towards 88.50–88.75.

The US Treasury yields have risen further. There is room to rise more and test their resistance. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if the yields are turning down or extending the rise. The German Yields are coming close to their resistance. If they manage to breach the resistance, the broader uptrend can then resume without seeing the fall that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI has come down again. The yield remains stuck inside the narrow range and continues to oscillate within it.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields continue to move up towards 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) as expected. The price action after this rise will need a watch to see if the yields are turning down again or not.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields have come close to their 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) resistance. A decisive break above this resistance will indicate the resumption of the uptrend without the fall 2.6%-2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.15% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4885%) has dipped. The outlook remains mixed, and range bound. 6.45%-6.55% is the range of trade for now. 6.4%-6.6% can possibly be a wider range of trade.

Most indices have immediate resistances and can see an initial dip before resuming the longer term uptrend. The Dow has risen well but needs to break above resistance at 46500 to turn further bullish for the near term else can dip back towards 45500-45000. The DAX has immediate resistance at 24000 below which an initial dip is possible to 23500-23000. Nifty has crucial resistance at 25500 which needs to be breached to establish a bullish momentum for the coming weeks else can see a dip toward 25000-24800 again. Nikkei needs to breach 45860 to rise towards 46000 while Shanghai has dipped below earlier support at 3850 and can test 3800-3750 before again moving higher in the longer run.

The Dow (46315.27, +0.37%) has immediate resistance near 46500 which if holds can produce a dip towards 45500-45000 initially before resuming the longer term uptrend. Failure to see any rejection from 46500 can continue the current upmove targeting 47000-48000 in the coming 1-2 weeks.

DAX (23639.41, -0.15%) has immediate resistance at 24000 below which there can be a dip to 23500-23000. A break above 24000, if seen can take the index towards upper resistance near 24500. Overall broad range of 23000-24500 can hold for some more time.

Nifty (25327.05, -0.38%) has immediate resistance near 25500 on the weekly candles which if holds can produce a decent rejection towards 25000 or lower to 24500 in the coming weeks.

Nikkei (45685.27, +1.42%) has immediate resistance near 45860 below which there can be a dip towards 45000-44800 region.

Shanghai (3817.91, -0.057%) has dipped below the expected support at 3850 and could have scope to re-test 3800-3750 region before attempting to rise back in the medium term.

Brent and WTI remain weak below $ 68 and $ 63, leaving them vulnerable to further declines towards $ 65–64 and $ 60 respectively. Gold has rebounded above $ 3,700 and looks set to rise towards $ 3,750–3,800. Silver has surged sharply with resistance at $ 44, a break of which could open the way towards $ 44.50–45.00 in the coming weeks. Copper is holding above $ 4.60, with risks of a fall to $ 4.55 if broken, else it may bounce towards $ 4.70–4.75. Natural Gas has extended its decline as expected and could dip further towards $ 2.80 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.01) fell to a low of $ 66.44 on Friday. While it remains below $ 68, it stays vulnerable to a decline towards $ 65–64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.72) has fallen below $ 63 and tested a low of $ 62.20 on Friday. A further fall towards $ 60 looks likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,724.30) has bounced back above $ 3,700 as expected and can rise further towards $ 3,750–3,800 in the near term.

Silver ($ 43.52) has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 43.41 on Friday. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 44, and a break above this is needed for continued bullishness towards $ 44.50–45.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.6335) is hovering above $ 4.60. A break below this is needed for it to fall further towards $ 4.55; otherwise, it can bounce back towards $ 4.70–4.75.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9230) fell in line with expectations and tested a low of $ 2.8570 on Friday. A further decline towards $ 2.80 looks likely in the near term.

NO MAJOR DATA RELEASE TODAY.

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -18 …Previous -17 …Actual -19

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
3.1 …Expectations 2.7 …Previous 3.0 …Actual 2.7

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.50 …Previous 0.50 …Actual 0.50