[Daily Market Trend | 23 Sep 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,142, almost unchanged from the prior cash close. Sentiment looks steady but directionless as traders weigh yields, crude oil, and currency weakness.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 22 Sep were net sellers of ₹3,551.19 crore.
DIIs on 22 Sep were net buyers of ₹2,670.87 crore.
September month-to-date FII equity outflows stand at ₹−17,033 crore, underscoring persistent foreign risk aversion even as DIIs step up support.
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Global Drivers
\\ USA
> Dow Jones +0.12 % : modest gains as energy shares provided support
> Nasdaq −0.05 % : mild weakness in growth tech capped broader rally
> S&P500 +0.07 % : mixed close with defensive names holding firm
\\ Asia
> Nikkei −0.21 % : Japan slips as yen moves offset exporter optimism
> Shanghai Composite +0.09 % : Chinese equities edge higher on policy expectations
> Kospi −0.15 % : Korea trades lower amid semiconductor-led selling
\\ Europe
> FTSE +0.18 % : UK markets slightly higher, aided by financials
> DAX −0.08 % : German indices flat to softer on weak factory order signals
> CAC −0.11 % : French equities modestly lower alongside continental peers
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Events & Newswatch
- US Fed officials’ speeches expected this week, giving direction on rate outlook.
- Crude market data remains in focus as OPEC+ hints at supply coordination.
- India’s GST revenue print awaited; likely to provide cues for fiscal strength.
- Eurozone PMI releases eyed for global growth sentiment.
- Corporate newsflow from Indian banking and IT sectors due this week.
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Politics & Policy
India
• Finance Ministry reiterated commitment to fiscal prudence despite weak inflows.
• Policy focus on accelerating infra spending continues in parliament debates.
US
• Presidential election campaign signals continue to shape fiscal and trade policy debates.
• Ongoing budget ceiling discussions remain on the political radar.
Global
• China’s central bank guidance and policy support hints continue to be tracked.
• Russia–Europe trade updates stay relevant for energy and metals markets.
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Treasuries & Central bank updates
• US 10-year Treasury yield trades at 4.14%, steady but keeping equities cautious.
• No immediate Fed move expected, but markets are sensitive to rate path commentary.
• RBI remains watchful on rupee moves, with reserves deployment expected if volatility persists.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10-year G-Sec yield at 6.47%, anchored by local demand despite FII outflows.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.5 – 88.7, testing pressure points as the dollar holds firm.
Weak rupee sentiment continues to shadow equity appetite.
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Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude is at $68.2 / bbl, holding gains on global supply concerns.
– Natural gas remains rangebound with muted demand signals.
Base & precious metals
– Gold at $3,748 / oz, firm on safe-haven preference amid rate uncertainty.
– Silver trades firmer with demand from both industrial and investor sides.
– Copper and aluminum show mixed moves; supply chain tightness keeps copper resilient while aluminum is weighed by softer demand data.
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Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.3 (+2.9% vs prior).
US VIX: 16.5 (steady).
Nifty PCR at 0.85, suggesting limited bullish positioning.
IVs are slightly higher, reflecting cautious undertone.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,110
R1 / R2 = 25,200 / 25,330
S1 / S2 = 25,000 / 24,910
Key watch: support at 25,000–24,910 and resistance at 25,200–25,330.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,142, implying +6 pts (+0.02%) vs prior close; trend flat to mildly positive.
Key triggers: US 10Y at 4.14%, Brent crude $68.2, USD/INR near 88.6.
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