The Dollar Index is likely to decline further within its 99-97/96 range. The Euro & EURINR can head towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY can either test 173 or 172 before rebounding later. USDJPY has immediate support coming around 147.00-146.50 which can be tested if the fall extends further. USDCNY can trade within 7.14-7.10 region for some time. Aussie has risen past 0.66 and if sustained, can test 0.670-0.675 before getting peaked out. While Pound needs to breach 1.35 to open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00 before halting. RBI MPC meeting, US ADP Employment & US Manufacturing ISM & IN Manufacturing PMI data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.013) has been coming off gradually and a further fall within its 99-97/96 range can be seen in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1737) have cooled down a bit from the high of 1.1761. Still, the targets of 1.18-1.19 can be tested in the near term while the pair trades above 1.16.

EURINR (104.0319) can head towards 105 or slightly higher in the coming sessions before halting.

EURJPY (174.27) dipped to 173.39 before rebounding. Now, interim support is coming at 173 and deeper around 172, above which the cross can attempt to rise back towards 175-176. A break above 174 would confirm the up move.

Dollar-Yen (147.89) has been coming off in line with our view and if the fall extend further, a test to the support near 147.00-146.50 can happen before a rebound occurs.

USDCNY (7.1185) is trading near the lower end of its 7.14-7.10 range which is likely to persist in the near term.

Aussie (0.6601) tested 0.6628 before declining a bit. Still, a rise to 0.670-0.675 can be seen while the pair trades above 0.655.

Pound (1.3438) needs to breach 1.35 to bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (88.8280) is trading above 88.80 on the NDF. Watch out for the RBI MPC scheduled today to get better directional clarity. For now, the target of 89 is kept open.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well after testing their support. That keeps alive the chances of the rise that we have been expecting. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have to get a strong bounce from here in order to avoid more fall. Wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI continues to more up. There is room to move further higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields have risen back well from their lows of 4.1% and 4.68% respectively. The support at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) has held very well. That keeps alive the chances of the rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) initially and then to 4 .3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.28%) yields remain lower and stable. The10Yr can fall to 2.65% if it fails to sustain above 2.7%. Failure to rise back above 3.3% from here can drag the 30Yr down to 3.2%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5770%) is moving up and can test 6.6%-6.65%. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. Failure to rise past 6.65% can take it down to 6.5% again.

Equities are mixed amidst the looming concerns of a US government shutdown. The Dow and Dax have immediate resistances near 46500 and 24000 which if held can produce a decline back towards 45500 and 23500-23000 respectively. The Nifty has dipped lower and needs to hold above 24600 to prevent further decline. To 24400/200. Watch the RBI monetary policy meeting today where the market expects rates to be kept unchanged. The Nikkei continues to fall as expected and could test 44000-43000 soon. Shanghai is trading in the green today and could trade within 3800-3900 for the near term. A break above 3900, if seen can be bullish towards 4000.

The Dow (46397.89, +0.18%) is trading higher but has an important resistance near 46500. A rejection from here will take it down to 45500. But if the index manages to break past 46500, it can target 47000 on the upside. Watch price action at 46500.

DAX (23880.72, +0.57%) has risen slightly and is headed towards 24000, a break past which is necessary for the index to move up in the medium term targeting 24500. Else if 24000 holds as immediate resistance, the DAX can face rejection and fall back to 23500-23000. Watch price action at 24000. 

Nifty (24611.10, -0.097%) continues to fall while the persisting foreign capital outflows and US trade tariff related concerns remain. If Nifty fails to bounce from immediate support at 24600, it could become vulnerable to a decline towards 24400-24200 in the coming days. An immediate rebound is necessary from 24600 to avoid such a fall. The RBI MPC meeting today could impact the index where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged.

Nikkei (44566.24, -0.82%) continues to fall sharply. Our view remains bearish to see a decline towards 44000-43000 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3882.78 +0.52%) rose after the China Manufacturing PMI rose for Sep-25 to 49.8, up from 49.4 in Aug-25. As mentioned yesterday, the very near term trade region of 3800-3900 looks likely to hold. A break above 3900 if seen can take the index towards 4000.

Brent and WTI have both tested their immediate supports at $ 66 and $ 62 respectively, and while these levels hold, they are likely to trade within $ 66-71 and $ 62-66 ranges for some time, though a break below could extend losses further. Gold has hit a fresh all-time high at $ 3,899.20 and looks set to rise towards $ 3,950-4,000, while Silver, despite a slight dip, remains bullish towards $ 47.50-48.00. Copper has declined to $ 4.82 and could slip a bit more towards $ 4.80-4.75 before bouncing past $ 4.90, whereas Natural Gas continues to edge higher with room to test $ 3.35-3.40 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.16) has fallen sharply to its immediate support, and while it holds, we expect the range of $ 66-71 to remain intact for some time. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 66 can drag it further down towards $ 65-64.

WTI ($ 62.47) tested a low of $ 62.03 yesterday as expected. Immediate support is near $ 62, and while it holds, a range of $ 62-66 can persist for some time.

Gold ($ 3,892.10) tested a new all-time high of $ 3,899.20 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 3,950-4,000 can be seen in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 47.21) saw a slight dip yesterday but remains poised to rise towards $ 47.50-48.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8625) fell to a low of $ 4.82 yesterday in line with our expectation. It can dip further towards $ 4.80-4.75 in the near term before attempting a rise past $ 4.90.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3370) has risen in line with our expectation and can target $ 3.35-3.40 in the near term.

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
-19.7 …Previous -20.9

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
…Expectations 14.0 …Previous 13.0

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
50.1 …Expectations 48.4 …Previous 49.7

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
51.0 …Expectations 50.2 …Previous 50.5

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Previous 5.50

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.75

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
60.1 …Expectations 58.5 …Previous 59.3

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
50.7 …Expectations 47.7 …Previous 49.0

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU PMI
51.2 …Expectations 49.5 …Previous 50.7

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK PMI
46.4 …Expectations 46.2 …Previous 47.0

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 53.0 …Previous 54.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA PMI
49.6 …Previous 48.3

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
49.5 …Expectations 49.1 …Previous 48.7

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 3.60 …Previous 3.60 …Actual 3.60

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK GDP
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.7 …Actual 0.4

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 2.3 …Previous 2.1 …Actual 1.8

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
94.4 …Expectations 95.3 …Previous 97.4 …Actual 94.2